Question for Myboynoah

[YOhio]

or anybody familiar with European politics.

How are things shaping up in the French presidential elections? I've been casually observing what is going on and I think I like Sarkozy. He seems considerably more competent than Royal and possibly in a better position to strengthen Franco-American relations. Any opinions on that?

From what I've read on the net, the race is neck and neck. Is the political climate over there anything like here?

[myboynoah]

Sorry for not responding earlier. I was out with the family all last week.

It looks like Royal is starting to lose ground to Sarkozy. Recent polls show Sarkozy at around 28 percent and Royal at around 22-24 percent. She has now started to enlist old Socialist Party luminaries, from whom she had previously distanced herself, into her campaign to try to solidify her base. There is a lot of doubt about her ability to recapture the magic she had when she first burst onto the political scene. Another center-right candidate, a guy named Bayrou, is cutting somewhat into her support and currently stands at 14 percent.

The big question is which two candidates will get to the final round. Everyone expects Sarkozy to make it, but whom will he face? Given Bayrou's centrist positions and ability to appeal to the right and the left, he might well be able to knock off Sarkozy in a mano-a-mano. Most think Royal would be no match for Sarkozy in the final round.

The political ascendancy and seeming plummet of Royal's political fortunes has been interesting to watch. She was everyone's darling early on, with the French seemingly ready and willing, even wanting, to elect a woman president. However, reports from Socialist Party conferences noted that her oratory did not capture the hearts of the diehards as well as that of her older male rivals, who certainly do not provide as nice of an image package as Royal. The Socialists opted for the hot commodity at the time and may well be paying the price.

Currently, the main complaint against Royal is that she doesn't appear up to the job. She's not that good on the stump and is avoiding any face-to-face debates et al with the other candidates. If she does make it the final round, everyone expects Sarkozy to clean her clock in any debates that are sure to come. I read one opinion piece that hopefully compared her stumblebumedness with that of George W. Bush, who eventually, they wishfully pointed out, won two elections. Any comparison to Bush in France cannot be a good thing.

Sarkozy is a smart, slick (in a good way), no-nonsense, tough on crime and illegal immigration, type of guy. I think this is very appealing to more conservative French who increasingly see their country beset by lawlessness and outsiders that refuse to fully integrate into French society. A work colleague of mine saw his harsh comments about the car-burners of 18 months ago as very calculated, trying to appeal to these types of voters. He has also said that he wants to reinvigorate ties with the U.S. that suffered under Chirac and that lying piece of crap de Villepin. Sarkozy also benefits from being the current Interior Minister, allowing him ready access to the press.

It certainly is going to be interesting to watch first hand.

As for the political climate, I think the U.S. is much less civil and much more personal. From what I've heard and read, our history has tended that way. Perhaps Europeans let it simmer beneath the surface until it blows and they have no other option than to start chopping off heads.

[Detroitdad]

Originally Posted by myboynoah

Sorry for not responding earlier. I was out with the family all last week.

It looks like Royal is starting to lose ground to Sarkozy. Recent polls show Sarkozy at around 28 percent and Royal at around 22-24 percent. She has now started to enlist old Socialist Party luminaries, from whom she had previously distanced herself, into her campaign to try to solidify her base. There is a lot of doubt about her ability to recapture the magic she had when she first burst onto the political scene. Another center-right candidate, a guy named Bayrou, is cutting somewhat into her support and currently stands at 14 percent.

The big question is which two candidates will get to the final round. Everyone expects Sarkozy to make it, but whom will he face? Given Bayrou's centrist positions and ability to appeal to the right and the left, he might well be able to knock off Sarkozy in a mano-a-mano. Most think Royal would be no match for Sarkozy in the final round.

The political ascendancy and seeming plummet of Royal's political fortunes has been interesting to watch. She was everyone's darling early on, with the French seemingly ready and willing, even wanting, to elect a woman president. However, reports from Socialist Party conferences noted that her oratory did not capture the hearts of the diehards as well as that of her older male rivals, who certainly do not provide as nice of an image package as Royal. The Socialists opted for the hot commodity at the time and may well be paying the price.

Currently, the main complaint against Royal is that she doesn't appear up to the job. She's not that good on the stump and is avoiding any face-to-face debates et al with the other candidates. If she does make it the final round, everyone expects Sarkozy to clean her clock in any debates that are sure to come. I read one opinion piece that hopefully compared her stumblebumedness with that of George W. Bush, who eventually, they wishfully pointed out, won two elections. Any comparison to Bush in France cannot be a good thing.

Sarkozy is a smart, slick (in a good way), no-nonsense, tough on crime and illegal immigration, type of guy. I think this is very appealing to more conservative French who increasingly see their country beset by lawlessness and outsiders that refuse to fully integrate into French society. A work colleague of mine saw his harsh comments about the car-burners of 18 months ago as very calculated, trying to appeal to these types of voters. He has also said that he wants to reinvigorate ties with the U.S. that suffered under Chirac and that lying piece of crap de Villepin. Sarkozy also benefits from being the current Interior Minister, allowing him ready access to the press.

It certainly is going to be interesting to watch first hand.

As for the political climate, I think the U.S. is much less civil and much more personal. From what I've heard and read, our history has tended that way. Perhaps Europeans let it simmer beneath the surface until it blows and they have no other option than to start chopping off heads.

What makes you think that Sarkozy will be that different from Chirac since they are both center-rightists? I am curious, because the things that I have read say that if anything he is more confrontational than Chirac, and although he may be more sympathetic in some ways to the American point of view, where is not he will be charcteristically blunt. I realize that you are much closer to the situation than I am so I would be interested to hear your opinions.

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by Detroitdad

What makes you think that Sarkozy will be that different from Chirac since they are both center-rightists? I am curious, because the things that I have read say that if anything he is more confrontational than Chirac, and although he may be more sympathetic in some ways to the American point of view, where is not he will be charcteristically blunt. I realize that you are much closer to the situation than I am so I would be interested to hear your opinions.

You are correct, he is a blunt man, so when he deals with us he will be blunt. Chirac and de Villepin fed off the politcal gain that came from opposing "American hegemony." They were blunt in order to build their approval ratings. Perhaps they were just political opportunitists, or they actually believed their rhetoric (I opt for both: they liked it and it felt real good). Anyway, whatever gains they reaped from their anti-Americanism have quickly dissapated under meager economic growth and a seeming helplessness to effectively address France's woes.

As for Sarkozy, he has said that we wants closer ties to the U.S., and I take him at his word. I don't know that makng such a statement really helps him, and may actually hurt him a bit. Also, his primary political advisors in the Assembly are known as being very friendly to the U.S. (we've arranged meetings for our politicos with one in particular). I get the sense that France is tiring of its latest anti-American binge and is ready for some rapprochement. The rift has been very, very wide, coming from both sides. But things are starting to warm. A Sarkozy election should help that process along, but the real warming will happen when Bush leaves office, no matter who becomes the next U.S. President. It will once again be safe to order up some "french" fries in the red states.