PAC-10 expansion - Page 3 - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

SeattleUte · 02-11-2010, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

http://www.sltrib.com/utahutes/ci_14377991

This article much more skeptical that BYU could be invited to the Pac 10.

Even if Utah demanded it and would not go otherwise.

If I were Pac 10 I would go for
1) Texas
2) Colorado/Utah
.
.
.
3) BYU

If Texas and Colorado were not available, and BYU is a non-starter. I'm not sure who you could pair with Utah? A Calif. state school? SDSU? I can't imagine them taking Boise State.

Not SDSU or another Cal. State school. Hell would freeze over first. They are non-starters for reasons of academic snobbery. Maybe TCU, Air Force or New Mexico. My choice would be Rice.

MikeWaters · 02-11-2010, 06:41 PM

Now that it is reported that the Big 10 and Univ. of Texas are in talks......boy that could make things very interesting.

Because the Big 12 would be devastated.

Maybe we could see a scenario where both Utah and BYU go to the Big 12.

Cali Coug · 02-16-2010, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

Now that it is reported that the Big 10 and Univ. of Texas are in talks......boy that could make things very interesting.

Because the Big 12 would be devastated.

Maybe we could see a scenario where both Utah and BYU go to the Big 12.

If the Big 12 is smart, they will add BYU and Utah before anyone else makes any moves. That increases teh odds they hold Colorado (who otherwise will likely go to the Pac 10). Denver is a good market to have if they try and form a new tv station like the Big 10. With Utah, BYU and CU out, who would the Pac 10 take? Nobody. They would be screwed. Their best remaining options are UNLV, TCU, Rice, Houston, New Mexico, etc. None of those improve the Pac 10. They would feel tremendous pressure to get to 12 teams, though, so undoubtedly 2 of those teams make it in and dilute the conference.

The Big 12 won't lose Texas to the Big 10. Recall how Baylor wound up in the Big 12- Ann Richards was a Baylor grad and ensured Baylor be included in any new conference deal. The same thing would happen with Texas. Texas legislators aren't going to let Texas walk away leaving Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Baylor in a dying Big 12 (especially if, as rumored, the Big 10 is also trying to poach Nebraska and/or Missouri). I don't see that happening.

If the Big 12 doesn't pick up BYU and Utah, the Pac 10 will almost certainly take Utah, and will make a strong push for Colorado (who would be happy to leave at that point). The Big 12 may also lose Missouri and/or Nebraska to the Big 10, and if that then happens, they only have BYU and maybe TCU (and they probably don't want to add another Texas school- especially one with such a small fan base and media presence).

SeattleUte · 02-16-2010, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

If the Big 12 is smart, they will add BYU and Utah before anyone else makes any moves. That increases teh odds they hold Colorado (who otherwise will likely go to the Pac 10). Denver is a good market to have if they try and form a new tv station like the Big 10. With Utah, BYU and CU out, who would the Pac 10 take? Nobody. They would be screwed. Their best remaining options are UNLV, TCU, Rice, Houston, New Mexico, etc. None of those improve the Pac 10. They would feel tremendous pressure to get to 12 teams, though, so undoubtedly 2 of those teams make it in and dilute the conference.

The Big 12 won't lose Texas to the Big 10. Recall how Baylor wound up in the Big 12- Ann Richards was a Baylor grad and ensured Baylor be included in any new conference deal. The same thing would happen with Texas. Texas legislators aren't going to let Texas walk away leaving Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Baylor in a dying Big 12 (especially if, as rumored, the Big 10 is also trying to poach Nebraska and/or Missouri). I don't see that happening.

If the Big 12 doesn't pick up BYU and Utah, the Pac 10 will almost certainly take Utah, and will make a strong push for Colorado (who would be happy to leave at that point). The Big 12 may also lose Missouri and/or Nebraska to the Big 10, and if that then happens, they only have BYU and maybe TCU (and they probably don't want to add another Texas school- especially one with such a small fan base and media presence).

I agree with this. If the Big 12 was truly far sighted and strong it would take Utah and BYU, and the Pac 10 would be isolated, screwed.

MikeWaters · 02-16-2010, 08:42 PM

I'm much more skeptical of Colorado leaving for the Pac 10. Read a Denver Post article. As part of the Big 12 bylaws, Colorado would have to wait for 2 years, and take a 50% cut in their Big 12 money during that time.

As it stands now, the Big 12 payout is HIGHER than the Pac 10 buyout. Perhaps you would argue that the new Pac 10 TV contract will pay more than the current Big 12 TV contract. Maybe. But what about the new Pac 10 TV contract versus the NEXT Big 12 contract? Who's to say that the Big 12's won't be bigger?

This coming from a school that can't afford to fire Dan Hawkins. Who doesn't actually make that money.

Colorado leaving doesn't make financial sense, thus I don't think it will happen.

For Utah and BYU, Pac 10 would be a huge step up in terms of money. So whole different ball game there.

I don't see Texas going to the Big 10.

Really, it's too late for the Big 12 to get the jump. If the Big 12 offered Utah tomorrow, Utah would still want to talk to the Pac 10 as well.

One could argue that the time for the Big 12 to poach Utah and BYU was last year, or the year before.

Let's not forget that to some degree BCS status begets BCS programs.

Where would Texas Tech be had it not been included in the Big 12? It would be completely irrelevant.

Look at Louisville. They are now solid BCS material in the public's eye.

If the Pac 10 added a school like New Mexico, it's possible that it would be a huge boon to NM, and they would get much better. Hire a better coach, athletes would be interested in attending.

MikeWaters · 02-16-2010, 08:53 PM

By the way, it has been previously documented that the Big 12 owns the trademark on "Big 14". So the possibility of future expansion has long been considered.

If the Big 12 were to offer now, it would force the Pac 10's hand. And let's face it, there is NO WAY that the Pac 10 signs off on BYU unanimously in a short period of time. And I don't see why Colorado would want to act quickly if offered, just because of Utah.

So, in summary, I think it would be in the Big 12's interest to lock up Utah and BYU. If the Pac 10 can't make an immediate offer to Utah, I don't see how Utah could afford to wait and see. They would have to accept the Big 12 offer.

02-11-2010, 06:41 PM	#22
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	Now that it is reported that the Big 10 and Univ. of Texas are in talks......boy that could make things very interesting. Because the Big 12 would be devastated. Maybe we could see a scenario where both Utah and BYU go to the Big 12.

02-16-2010, 08:42 PM	#25
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	I'm much more skeptical of Colorado leaving for the Pac 10. Read a Denver Post article. As part of the Big 12 bylaws, Colorado would have to wait for 2 years, and take a 50% cut in their Big 12 money during that time. As it stands now, the Big 12 payout is HIGHER than the Pac 10 buyout. Perhaps you would argue that the new Pac 10 TV contract will pay more than the current Big 12 TV contract. Maybe. But what about the new Pac 10 TV contract versus the NEXT Big 12 contract? Who's to say that the Big 12's won't be bigger? This coming from a school that can't afford to fire Dan Hawkins. Who doesn't actually make that money. Colorado leaving doesn't make financial sense, thus I don't think it will happen. For Utah and BYU, Pac 10 would be a huge step up in terms of money. So whole different ball game there. I don't see Texas going to the Big 10. Really, it's too late for the Big 12 to get the jump. If the Big 12 offered Utah tomorrow, Utah would still want to talk to the Pac 10 as well. One could argue that the time for the Big 12 to poach Utah and BYU was last year, or the year before. Let's not forget that to some degree BCS status begets BCS programs. Where would Texas Tech be had it not been included in the Big 12? It would be completely irrelevant. Look at Louisville. They are now solid BCS material in the public's eye. If the Pac 10 added a school like New Mexico, it's possible that it would be a huge boon to NM, and they would get much better. Hire a better coach, athletes would be interested in attending.

02-16-2010, 08:53 PM	#26
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	By the way, it has been previously documented that the Big 12 owns the trademark on "Big 14". So the possibility of future expansion has long been considered. If the Big 12 were to offer now, it would force the Pac 10's hand. And let's face it, there is NO WAY that the Pac 10 signs off on BYU unanimously in a short period of time. And I don't see why Colorado would want to act quickly if offered, just because of Utah. So, in summary, I think it would be in the Big 12's interest to lock up Utah and BYU. If the Pac 10 can't make an immediate offer to Utah, I don't see how Utah could afford to wait and see. They would have to accept the Big 12 offer.