Why American soccer sucks and talent level issue

[jay santos]

I've read a bunch of soccer debates lately on why America sucks at soccer.

Obvious answer: our good athletes go into other sports

Cougarboard nerd patrol response: no our soccer athletes are just as good, we just have bad coaching or some other problem. I think maybe some of these guys played on high school soccer teams and want to believe they were just as athletic as the guys that played football and basketball. WRONG.

Consider this model:

100,000,000 population
50,000,000 male population
625,000 males at each age (625K age 1, 625K age 2, etc.)
1 in 1,000 number of males that have pro caliber athletic ability
1 in 500 number of pro caliber athletes that are "special" i.e. have the potential to be an MVP in a pro sports league

I define pro caliber athletic ability as the combination of size, speed, quickness, athletic instincts, skill, intelligence, work ethic, interest, health, intangibles, etc. that would result in developing as an athlete that could reasonably compete for a position in a pro sport.

This works out to be that every year America develops 1,875 pro caliber athletes and 4 special pro caliber athletes.

A country like Argentina with population 40M would develop 250 pro caliber athletes and 0.5 special pro caliber athletes every year.

How many play soccer? That's the critical question. At my son's age (12), of the 20 best athletes in the city, two still play soccer. My bet is that in two years it will be 0 out of 20. This is the suburbs, white America, higher than average income--where soccer is king if it's king anywhere.

Let's assume 1 out of 20 pro caliber athletes in America play soccer past age 12 and 0 of those are special pro caliber athletes. In Argentina, I'd bet at least half of those kids play soccer past age 12.

That leaves us with America developing 94 pro caliber soccer players every year with 0 chance at a special player. Argentina develops 250 every year with 0.5 special players.

Take a group of 10 years and you have a pool in America of 938 to draw on with no special players. Argentina has 2500 to draw on with 5 special players, and I can name them: Crespo, Saviola, Rodriguex, Messi, Riquelmo.

This is what I see with America. Our national team looks like a bunch of below average role players with no one even close to an MVP level.

The only fix:

get more of you pro caliber athletes playing soccer past age 12 where they have a shot at getting identified. It's not happening now.

p.s. anyone who says soccer is a different kind of athlete or that they're not athletically gifted like is required in NBA or NFL, I say BULL HONKY!! It doesn't take long to see how gifted they are athletically. Klose or Jan Koller or Rooney or Nedved or any of the African strikers, any of those guys, if they grow up in America they have D1 scholarships in baseball, football, or basketball and they have a reasonable shot at becoming a TO or a Jeter or a Kobe.

[fuegote]

Santos, what a fantastic post. I couldn't agree more.

[SteelBlue]

You hit it on the head brother.

[bluegoose]

Excellent post Santos. You amaze me at how much thought you put into your sports posts. Its not just "Soccer sucks" or "Utes suck". Its refreshing man.

[Archaea]

It's all in demographics. Throw in enough money and people and a country will succeed. It doesn't quite explain how Swizterland, a country of five million, which also devotes large numbers to skiing and track and field, or Sweden a rather smallish country can succeed and the US can't, but demographically, one can understand why we fail.

[ute4ever]

Hey France! Where were you in world war two?