From HBArnett, real politik

[smokymountainrain]

If Kaveinga is 50/50 deciding between USC and BYU with BYU currently in the MWC and the brutal TV deal, how do those odds change if BYU is in the PAC 10?

If the 2006 team without the recruiting advantages could go 7-2 or 6-3 in the PAC 10 and the 1996 team could have gone 7-2 without the recruiting advantages, I like BYU's chances of competing for a Rose Bowl berth every 5 years or so given the advantages in recruiting.

Am I up in the night?

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by smokymountainrain

If Kaveinga is 50/50 deciding between USC and BYU with BYU currently in the MWC and the brutal TV deal, how do those odds change if BYU is in the PAC 10?

If the 2006 team without the recruiting advantages could go 7-2 or 6-3 in the PAC 10 and the 1996 team could have gone 7-2 without the recruiting advantages, I like BYU's chances of competing for a Rose Bowl berth every 5 years or so given the advantages in recruiting.

Am I up in the night?

win the pac-10 20% of the time? that's naively optimistic IMO. BYU would be like Texas Tech in the Big12. Make some noise, occasional upsets, team that everyone hates. But never wins the championship.

[smokymountainrain]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

win the pac-10 20% of the time? that's naively optimistic IMO. BYU would be like Texas Tech in the Big12. Make some noise, occasional upsets, team that everyone hates. But never wins the championship.

No, not win the PAC 10 20% of the time, but compete for the PAC 10 title 20% of the time. Maybe you win it just 5-10% of the time. But I would rather have a chance at the PAC 10 title 20% of the time two weeks into November than go 11-2 or 10-3 in the MWC 50-75% of the time.

[SipiTau]

Originally Posted by smokymountainrain

If Kaveinga is 50/50 deciding between USC and BYU with BYU currently in the MWC and the brutal TV deal, how do those odds change if BYU is in the PAC 10?

If the 2006 team without the recruiting advantages could go 7-2 or 6-3 in the PAC 10 and the 1996 team could have gone 7-2 without the recruiting advantages, I like BYU's chances of competing for a Rose Bowl berth every 5 years or so given the advantages in recruiting.

Am I up in the night?

It's all ready a given that BYU will get quality OL, DL, LB's and capable RB's regardless of conference.

My question as a BYU outsider and supposed PAC 10 snob; do you see a jump in your skill position recruiting if BYU were to get into the PAC 10?

[smokymountainrain]

Originally Posted by SipiTau

It's all ready a given that BYU will get quality OL, DL, LB's and capable RB's regardless of conference.

My question as a BYU outsider and supposed PAC 10 snob; do you see a jump in your skill position recruiting if BYU were to get into the PAC 10?

First, I believe that while they do get pretty good OL and DL being a member of the WAC/MWC it is still below par for a good BCS school. It seems BYU has, in the past, had trouble both running against good BCS schools and stopping the run vs good BCS schools.

That tells me that while they are getting good OL and DL, they could do much better and I think that is an area where a move to the PAC 10 would help them.

It's a similar situation with LBs - While BYU has had some good LBs, as a group they lack speed. Getting the Kaveinga type LBs more often would help in that area as well.

To answer your question, I don't see a huge jump in the quality of skill position guys, but significant enough that combined with small jumps in the quality of OL, DL and LB, it would be the difference between a BYU team that would average a 6-6/5-7 record in the PAC 10 now and a BYU team that would average a 7-5 to 9-3 record with the advantages.

Honestly, I have no effing clue how recruiting would be impacted, but that's how I hope it would shape up.

[Insensitive PAP]

As usual, Arnett has his head up his butt.

History tells us that teams moving up in competition (i,e. money) improve dramtically. Look what happened when teams like Cincinnati, South Florida, Connecticut, and Rutgers got money. With in 3 years, they went from being terrible to being ranked. Look at Boise State making the jump to D1, within 10 years, they were beating Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Money matters, and the BCS cartel is a major recrutiing barrier. Ngata was possibly the best player ever to play at Oregon, and we lost him only because they were BCS and we weren't. BYU is competitive with good BCS teams now, remove the BCS glass ceiling and we get a lot more blue chip LDS athletes.

[Flystripper]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

BYU NEEDS MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE MORE THAN MWC NEEDS BYU



Translation: BYU is in the best situation it will probably ever be in, and anyone who wants to rock the boat is an idiot. Bronco is an average coach who in a few years we will be required to include his middle initial when we say his name.

I agree that BYU would get roughed up in a BCS conference. But I prefer that over playing a meaningless BCS game once every 5 years.

Once in a BCS conference every week becomes our BCS bowl. Yes we would struggle some years, but I would rather struggle in a conference full of heavyweights than dominate a bunch of lightweights. HB is a guy that likes to play hoops against the neighborhood 10 yea olds.

Going to a meaningless BCS game 1 time every 5-10 years < being in a BCS conference and getting BCS money every year. Once you are in a BCS conference it is all about the regular season and the regular season is actually exciting. Right now 75% of the regular season puts me to sleep.

[cougjunkie]

Think of the players that would most likely be at BYU had we been in the Pac-10. These are all kids that showed interest in BYU if we are in the Pac-10 say we get 1/3rd of the kids on this list as about 1/2 are LDS. We can easily compete in the Pac-10. The one major problem looking over the list is that most of the OL, DL are LDS not many of hte skill position players. This also does not include any players that we lost to non-bcs schools or Utah.
2002
Deuce Lutui- committed to utah, didnt qualify went to Snow, then USC, and a 2nd round draft pick.
Haloti Ngata- Oregon, top 10 NFL draft pick, all-pro
JT Mapu- 5 star D-end, starter for Tennessee
Carl Tuituvaki- DT transfer from Ricks went to Arizona
Ryan Carter- OL went to Florida
Blake Mackey- wide reciever playing at Colorado

2003
Christian Bass- safety went to Washington State
Dave Howell- Oneills younger brother went to Miami
Pat Soalo- Oline went to Oregon
Victor Felipe- went to Oregon (is now off the team)
Tom Sorenson- would have had him straight out of highschool

2004
Ryan Powdrell- linebacker committed to USC
Nate Longshore- QB starting at Cal
Ramonce Taylor- recruited as a corner went on to play RB at Texas
Rudy Carpenter- QB starting at ASU
Webster Patrick- RB committed to Iowa State
Ben Muth- OL committed to Stanford
Merci Falaise- OL committed to NC state
Cornelius Fuamatu- Thomas- OL committed to Nebraska
Sharrod Davis- CB committed to Oregon
Jordan Reever- QB committed to LSU
Max Hall- QB coudl have had him straight out of highschool
Thor Pili- DL committed to Oregon, then went to snow, now at UNLV
Keith Dickerson- LB now at aTm
Jarvis Minton- WR committed to Wisconsin
Trey Payne- WR committed to Iowa State
Chanti Bloomer- he actually committed to BYU on his visit but was videotaping CJ Ah You and Rey Braithwaite giving someone a mouthful so he was not allowed to come. 4 year starter at UNLV

2005
Tony Moeaki- Will be 4 year starter at tightend for Iowa
Kaluka Maiava- committed to SC, currently a backup
Adam Hawes- 4 star O-line committed to AZ
Paluni Ma Sun- 4 star O-line commited to Oregon
Zach Catanese- 4 star safety committed to ASU, first team Pac-10
Bernard Afutiti- 4 star D-line, now at Oregon I believe
Tyson Alualu- committed to Cal
Edward Britton- RB committed to Texas Tech
Eddie Young- DE committed to Cal
Matt Webb- OL committed to Oregon
RIchard Tuitu'u- OL committed to ASU
Blake Kerley- OL committed to Arizona
Dewayne Patterso- S committed to Washington State
Trey Bryant- pretty big time recruit committed to Baylor after best friend BJ Mathis was kicked out of school
Patrick Henderson- CB committed to Oregon State
Danny Fortener- WR committed to Michigan State
Blaise Johnson- CB committed to Stanford
Shawn Lauvao- OL committed to ASU

2006-
Ervin Baldwin- 5 star DE committed to Michigan State
Stanley Havili- RB committed to SC, starts at fullback
Jake Dean- OL commited to UCLA
Fenuki Tupou- OL committed to Oregon
Justin Tryon- CB committed to ASU
Cody Hawkins- QB committed to CU
TYler Lyon- QB committed to Arizona
Glyndon Bolasky- S committed to Arizona
James Dockery- WR committed to Oregon State
Mau Nomani- OL committed to Oregon State (starts on the O-line)
Martin Tevaseu- DT committed to ASU
Mike Mccoy- CB committed to Kansas (he originally committed to BYU but when a BCS school came calling he left, we settled on Saulsberry)
Brian Williams- CB committed to Washington State

2007-
Jake Gelakoska- QB committed to Oregon State (5 star)
Alex Lagemann- WR committed to Cal (4 star)
Christian Tupou- DE committed to USC
Logan Walls- DT committed to Georgia Tech
John Tyndall- LB committed to Cal
Kevin Frahm- DE committed to Oregon State
Willie Griffin- RB committed to Washington
Roy Helu- RB committed to Nebraska
Vaughn Lesuma- OL committed to Washington state
Will Tukuafu- DT committed to ORegon
Kevin Freitag- OL committed to Washington State
David Tufuga- DT committed to aTm.

[Judge Smails]

Originally Posted by cougjunkie

Cody Hawkins- QB committed to CU
.

I've heard of maybe half these guys, but Cody Hawkins is not LDS. I'm gonna assume he's the only one you erred on.

[Jennerstein]

Originally Posted by cougjunkie

Massive list of college players deleted

I'm pretty sure that not all of those players are LDS. Some are non-LDS, and some are LDS who claimed to have medium interest.

But I think it's probably stretching it to say a lot of those kids would have made it to BYU even if BYU was in a BCS conference during the 2002-2007 time period. I think BYU caters to a specific type of athlete, one who enjoys the conservative, strict culture that comes with BYU being a church school. I believe that if BYU was in a BCS conference, would we get a bit of a bounce in recruiting. However, you'd still be fighting with the same top tier programs (i.e. USC and UCLA) for the same elite LDS talent we whine about losing. Kids like to go to a winning program (hence what makes USC so enticing), and when spirituality is not a characteristic in choosing which university to go, BYU loses its appeal.

So, using your 2002-2007 time frame (when we were abysmal to decent), I doubt we would have gotten most of those kids

Even if BYU was a winning program on the level of a USC, we would still be losing kids who don't want the pressure of Mormon expectations.