Why I don't think BYU will run away with this one

[MikeWaters]

I have to make a qualification, the last time I saw the Utes play was probably for about 15 minutes during the Louisville game.

[Insensitive PAP]

Originally Posted by RockyBalboa

Marquis Wilson is a deep ball threat. If last years game didn't make that clear, I don't know what would.

1. You can only be a threat if you have the ability to catch the ball.

2. The pass Wilson caught was a 15 yard pass.

[RockyBalboa]

Originally Posted by Insensitive PAP

1. You can only be a threat if you have the ability to catch the ball.

2. The pass Wilson caught was a 15 yard pass.

Which turned out to be their longest play of the game....as he ran the bubble route, burned Gabriel and streaked down the sidelines for a long TD.

Wilson has struggled to hold onto the ball this year, but he's very fast and if he gets behind one of our DB's...that's bad news.

[Insensitive PAP]

Originally Posted by RockyBalboa

Which turned out to be their longest play of the game....as he ran the bubble route, burned Gabriel and streaked down the sidelines for a long TD.

Wilson has struggled to hold onto the ball this year, but he's very fast and if he gets behind one of our DB's...that's bad news.

It was a good play and good call, but he didn't run past anyone. Gabriel bit on the out, and Wilson burned him. They tricked us, which is what I'm saying they need to do to hurt us. It's not like Wilson lined up and ran a post pattern and our safeties just couldn't keep up, which is what happened against Tulsa.

[RockyBalboa]

Originally Posted by Insensitive PAP

It was a good play and good call, but he didn't run past anyone. Gabriel bit on the out, and Wilson burned him. They tricked us, which is what I'm saying they need to do to hurt us. It's not like Wilson lined up and ran a post pattern and our safeties just couldn't keep up, which is what happened against Tulsa.

Understood, but I still maintain the Wilson is certainly a deep ball threat or home run guy or however you want to phrase it.

[ute4ever]

Over the past 14 years, 12 of the 14 games have been decided by a touchdown or less. The only exceptions were in 1996 when BYU was unquestionably the cream of the league, and in 2004 when Utah was the same.

I don't see this game being a runaway either.

I expect Utah to start fast, because they usually do. KW will have his boys fired up, will have some trick plays that he just invented the day before, and Utah will probably score touchdowns in two of their first three drives. But after that, I predict a game of defense by both sides until the fourth quarter.

[RockyBalboa]

Originally Posted by ute4ever

Over the past 14 years, 12 of the 14 games have been decided by a touchdown or less. The only exceptions were in 1996 when BYU was unquestionably the cream of the league, and in 2004 when Utah was the same.

I don't see this game being a runaway either.

I expect Utah to start fast, because they usually do. KW will have his boys fired up, will have some trick plays that he just invented the day before, and Utah will probably score touchdowns in two of their first three drives. But after that, I predict a game of defense by both sides until the fourth quarter.

BYU has a history of starting fast as well.

That's why whoever jumps out first will have a decided advantage.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by smokymountainrain

I'm not sure what he was referring to, but my point is that they are part of the game as you just mentioned. Even the more "obvious" trick plays like flea flickers, fake punts/FGs, etc are part of the game just as the more common trick plays like bootlegs, end arounds and play action passes are part of the game.

I just don't understand the fuss over trick plays or why some people like to think that they cheapen a win.

Fair enough - I misunderstood what you were saying. I believe both teams will try to do what is needed to win the game.

[Ma'ake]

IMO, it's unwise to compare Johnson's stats with other QBs, and even to his 2005 stats. This year BJ has mostly managed the offense, not really lit it up... the way most of the games have gone, the O has produced early leads and the coaching staff has played the percentages & played field position a lot this year, focused on not making TOs. That said, there have been a lot more "trick plays" than usual, with impressive execution. This tells me the offense is fairly mature, they can evolve & expand on the nuts & bolts offense to take advantage of their (relative) athleticism in other skill positions, by misdirection, etc.

I'm sure Ludwig has cooked up some more plays to keep the Y's D from over pursuit. If one thing has been apparent this season, it's that Ludwig knows what he's doing. I think we'll see a fair amount of both Mack & Stowers, probably not doing so well early, better later. Elijah Wesson has emerged as a speed weapon on quick sweeps, he may break out on some passing routes. The Ute WRs will be all over the place. Not seen much (yet) are the TEs. The U's OL should be pretty solid, especially in pass blocking (early) and perhaps in run-blocking later. If the Y blitzes a lot, BJ & the WRs should be able to make them pay. Also not seen (since the UCLA game) have been RBs slipping out of the pocket as relief valves if/when pressure comes. This would help regulate pressure on Johnson.

With an active front 7, I expect the Y's D will get to Johnson a fair amount, but the middle & short outside passing game & run game may open up things downfield, where the U has a substantial advantage at WR vs the BYU CBs and safeties. Jereme Brooks may be a difference maker, Richards has been steady & has excellent speed (2nd fastest on team), but hasn't busted many long ones, Hernandez has been strangely silent so far, though he had a nice game in Provo in '05. He has been healthier this year, but not back to the 4.4x speed he once had. Freddie Brown is big with pretty good hands. TE Dallin Rogers has been pretty impressive for a true FR.

Andersen has likewise used a LOT of different looks on defense, mixing zone blitzes to get an athletic Martail Burnett into coverage over the short middle, which TCU found out the hard way. The U has 3 pretty good lockdown CBs in McCain, Smith & RJ Stanford, which allows more blitzing and disruptive schemes in the front 7 & safeties. The Ute LBs, what's left of them, are fairly solid, with Sylvester being a good athlete & a playmaker, Jiannoni will do whatever he can to hold up his end of the bargain, Nai Fotu is young, but aggressive with a nasty attitude. Mike Wright is solid & knows the D inside & out, and Loma Olevao can provide some reps.

Up front is a good mix of quickness (Burnett, Long, Misi) with size/strength (Kruger, Eliapo) in the rotation. If the DL can pressure Hall without the need for blitzes, and do a decent job of buttoning up the Y's ground game, it will be a long afternoon for the BYU offense. (I expect the Ute D to blitz anyway, it's too integral to their character + rattling Hall, even somewhat, would yield big dividends.) The DEs will need to contain, and the LBs need to be disciplined.

The safeties, Tate & Robert Johnson, have played very well this year. Tate is rarely out of position and Johnson has the range of any center fielder in MLB to provide over the top help if need be.

This battle may come down to the U's safeties & LBs vs the Y's ground game. BYU's RBs aren't terribly fast, but they get good blocking & have *some* elusiveness. By comparison, Oregon State's Yvensen Bernard is substantially more effective, with great quickness, instincts & is very slippery.

Also, it will be a good matchup of Gary Anderson vs Robert Anae, and Bronco vs Ludwig, Special Teams may be a differentiator, along with the other big wildcard, turnovers.

I also expect the Y to pull out some trick plays of their own. The plot is setup for such. To be honest, I haven't watched the Y all that much this year, but I have a sense of what Hall is all about & the D is always solid, if not terribly athletic in the secondary.

It should be a hell of a game.

(How's that for a rambling late night analysis? lol)