The market plunge is due to - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

BYU71 · 07-27-2007, 03:26 PM

the credit crunch due to sub-prime mtg collapse and the ensuing housing decline. At least that is what is being said on TV and in the papers. The talk is the consumer will have to pull back due to these crunches and also leverage buy out deals can't get done.

In the last week the market is off about 5%. The week after June 19th the market dropped 2.7%, the week after June 7th the market dropped 3.7% and the week after Feb. 23rd the market dropped 5.2%.

What did all these drops have in common. Worry about the credit crunch due to the sub-prime mtg collapse and the ensuing housing decline. It is starting to get boring to hear the same reason over and over again.

I know there was talk in the June fall off about interest rates on the 10 year hitting 5.3%, however rates are around 4.9% now. How about oil? That is really an old tune.

Note: I am asking a question here. I am not indicating at all whether I think someone should be buying or selling the market.

jay santos · 07-27-2007, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU71

the credit crunch due to sub-prime mtg collapse and the ensuing housing decline. At least that is what is being said on TV and in the papers. The talk is the consumer will have to pull back due to these crunches and also leverage buy out deals can't get done.

In the last week the market is off about 5%. The week after June 19th the market dropped 2.7%, the week after June 7th the market dropped 3.7% and the week after Feb. 23rd the market dropped 5.2%.

What did all these drops have in common. Worry about the credit crunch due to the sub-prime mtg collapse and the ensuing housing decline. It is starting to get boring to hear the same reason over and over again.

I know there was talk in the June fall off about interest rates on the 10 year hitting 5.3%, however rates are around 4.9% now. How about oil? That is really an old tune.

Note: I am asking a question here. I am not indicating at all whether I think someone should be buying or selling the market.

That or just a natural, random correction.

FMCoug · 07-27-2007, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

That or just a natural, random correction.

14K psychological barrier?

BYU71 · 07-27-2007, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FMCoug

14K psychological barrier?

That's possible. However, barriers like that often get bumped up against a few times and then broken through. Quite honestly most professional money managers aren't interested in the Dow as a barometer anyway, they look at the S&P 500.

Personally, I think it is the summer and that is basically the reason.

BYU71 · 07-27-2007, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

That or just a natural, random correction.

I tend to agree. I think we find though it is triggered and exasperated by hedge funds and their problems. Too many young guns full of themselves who don't really know how to manage money or risk.

jay santos · 07-27-2007, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FMCoug

14K psychological barrier?

Sell short right before we get to 15K and get back to me on how you did.

FMCoug · 07-27-2007, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

Sell short right before we get to 15K and get back to me on how you did.

I'm scared to do stuff like that. It's impossible to outperform the market right?

jay santos · 07-27-2007, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FMCoug

I'm scared to do stuff like that. It's impossible to outperform the market right?

No, exactly half the people will outperform the market over a given time period.

BlueHair · 07-27-2007, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

No, exactly half the people will outperform the market over a given time period.

Not completely true. If someone like Warren Buffet makes the correct big plays he could cover thousands of bad plays from the rest of us. I think a few really wealthy people can beat the market at the same time thousands of other people lose.

jay santos · 07-27-2007, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BlueHair

Not completely true. If someone like Warren Buffet makes the correct big plays he could cover thousands of bad plays from the rest of us. I think a few really wealthy people can beat the market at the same time thousands of other people lose.

Maybe but for every Warren Buffet there's probably a high roller than thinks he can beat the market that doesn't. Half the mutual funds are above the mutual fund average by definition.

But you're right. Half the $ are above the market not half the players.

07-27-2007, 03:26 PM	#1
BYU71 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 5,084	The market plunge is due to the credit crunch due to sub-prime mtg collapse and the ensuing housing decline. At least that is what is being said on TV and in the papers. The talk is the consumer will have to pull back due to these crunches and also leverage buy out deals can't get done. In the last week the market is off about 5%. The week after June 19th the market dropped 2.7%, the week after June 7th the market dropped 3.7% and the week after Feb. 23rd the market dropped 5.2%. What did all these drops have in common. Worry about the credit crunch due to the sub-prime mtg collapse and the ensuing housing decline. It is starting to get boring to hear the same reason over and over again. I know there was talk in the June fall off about interest rates on the 10 year hitting 5.3%, however rates are around 4.9% now. How about oil? That is really an old tune. Note: I am asking a question here. I am not indicating at all whether I think someone should be buying or selling the market.