It doesn't look good for Romney

[All-American]

Originally Posted by pelagius

Ya, not particularly useful. The betting is still favoring McCain although it has tightened a bit. The exit polling info is almost certainly in the prices by now. I would be really surprised if the exit polls didn't favor McCain given the betting. The margin is not that big though; prices just haven't moved very much.

I can't find any exit poll information, besides this last one. Anybody have any other links?

[pelagius]

Originally Posted by All-American

I can't find any exit poll information, besides this last one. Anybody have any other links?

It's not made public until after the polls close. But people who have inside access to the exit polls usually start betting on it by the afternoon.

[DJRoss]

Originally Posted by pelagius

It's not made public until after the polls close. But people who have inside access to the exit polls usually start betting on it by the afternoon.

Love Intrade. One my colleagues is really big into it. He said that due to the lack of volume it is easy to create arbitrage situations. I have noticed that While Romney trade volume for Florida has been greater over the past 5 days, the sell side has been rather limited. Buyers are lined up wanting to get in cheaply, but the spread has been tighter than McCain where the sell orders are growing.

[pelagius]

Originally Posted by DJRoss

Buyers are lined up wanting to get in cheaply, but the spread has been tighter than McCain where the sell orders are growing.

This is not so true at the moment. There is a fair amount of depth at the ask with fairly low prices, but the ask side has thickened. the ask side is pretty thick (at least for these contracts at 45) at about $43-49.

[woot]

So is McCain the nominee then? With Giuiliani hinting of dropping, Thompson gone, and Huckabee broke, It really is down to Romney and McCain. Knowing that, is Florida really a must win for Romney as much as you guys are saying?

[DJRoss]

Originally Posted by pelagius

This is not so true at the moment. There is a fair amount of depth at the ask with fairly low prices, but the ask side has thickened. the ask side is pretty thick (at least for these contracts at 45) at about $43-49.

I am interested in the position these insiders have that would give them enough insight as to the state wide vote? Given the numbers have yet to be talleyed. I mean these votes are private unlike a caucus, and so who is counting them already?

I think the trading is media driven. Crist and the top senator in Florida endorsing McCain IMO is doing more to influence the trading than any so called insiders. To actually have insiders who have access to enough district voting numbers would mean circumventing the process. Polls do not close until 7 pm EST. After that, votes will be counted.

So if you can shed any light on how these insiders secure voting numbers to base their intrade positions on, I would be much obliged.

[myboynoah]

Originally Posted by DJRoss

I am interested in the position these insiders have that would give them enough insight as to the state wide vote? Given the numbers have yet to be talleyed. I mean these votes are private unlike a caucus, and so who is counting them already?

I think the trading is media driven. Crist and the top senator in Florida endorsing McCain IMO is doing more to influence the trading than any so called insiders. To actually have insiders who have access to enough district voting numbers would mean circumventing the process. Polls do not close until 7 pm EST. After that, votes will be counted.

So if you can shed any light on how these insiders secure voting numbers to base their intrade positions on, I would be much obliged.

The theory is that they have access to exit polling data, not actual vote numbers. Of course they would need to have broad spectrum of districts or some key bell weather districts.

[All-American]

This "virtual market," wherein the numbers are fake and the scores don't matter, thinks Romney is having a pretty good day.

http://politicalmarket.cnn.com/market/show/8036

http://politicalmarket.cnn.com/

[pelagius]

Originally Posted by myboynoah

The theory is that they have access to exit polling data, not actual vote numbers. Of course they would need to have broad spectrum of districts or some key bell weather districts.

myboynoah is right. There is a lot evidence that people with access to the exit polls used by the media to make projections trade on intrade. For example, in 2004 some traders clearly had the "bad" exit poll data and were trading on it early in the day (Kerry had quite a run-up in the afternoon). The market broke back very quickly once it became apparent the exit polls were flawed. The market figured out the "bad" exiting polling quite a bit before the media did.

Obviously the exit polls aren't perfect predictors particularly if turnout is bigger than expected or the demographics are different than expected. In those cases, the sample might not representative.

[pelagius]

I'm now projecting that McCain is the winner.