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Old 01-29-2008, 05:08 PM   #1
pelagius
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Default It doesn't look good for Romney
I think the exit polling information is leaking into the prices on intrade. Betting has swung toward McCain; last trade was $65. My guess is that the exit polls are fairly close but favor McCain by 4-5 percentage points.
Last edited by pelagius; 01-29-2008 at 09:46 PM.
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Old 01-29-2008, 05:13 PM   #2
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I think the exit polling information is leaking into the prices on intrade. Betting has swung toward McCain; last trade was $65. My guess is that the exit polls are fairly close but favor McCain by 4-5 percentage points at least.
Romney if he loses Fla. I think should get out. I know he has the money to do it, but it will be a real rough go. Besides that it will get trashier and trashier. He won't have media support and looks like the republican washington base is going to give it to one of their own.

I don't look forward to the elections. Not too much to choose from.
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Old 01-29-2008, 05:19 PM   #3
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Romney if he loses Fla. I think should get out. I know he has the money to do it, but it will be a real rough go. Besides that it will get trashier and trashier. He won't have media support and looks like the republican washington base is going to give it to one of their own.

I don't look forward to the elections. Not too much to choose from.
Yeah, doesn't look good. I tend to agree, but suspect he will stay through next week. By then he should save his money and leave the field to McCain and we'll suffer through November.

He can then come back in four years after Hillary or Obama has made a disaster of things.
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:46 PM   #4
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Default Here is some actual exit poll information out of Florida...
http://naplesnews.com/news/2008/jan/...e-you-opinion/
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:48 PM   #5
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Well, THAT little city certainly liked Romney.
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:51 PM   #6
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To lose Pres. Hinckley one day, and then have the 2nd greatest Mormon figure lose the next day.........heads will implode.
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:54 PM   #7
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To lose Pres. Hinckley one day, and then have the 2nd greatest Mormon figure lose the next day.........heads will implode.
That explains the pressure I'm feeling right now.
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:55 PM   #8
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Well, THAT little city certainly liked Romney.
Ya, not particularly useful. The betting is still favoring McCain although it has tightened a bit. The exit polling info is almost certainly in the prices by now. I would be really surprised if the exit polls didn't favor McCain given the betting. The margin is not that big though; prices just haven't moved very much.
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:55 PM   #9
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Per this data, more people were interested in amending their property tax than for voting for Mitt Romney.
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Old 01-29-2008, 07:55 PM   #10
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Well, if Hair Romney loses, he will have given it a nice ride.
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