This is Romney's moment - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

MikeWaters · 12-20-2011, 06:52 PM

Newt's numbers going down, Romney's stabilizing and going up even. The best news I have heard for Romney that puts both he and New at 30% (I think nationally). That 30% for Romney is higher than 20%, and higher than 25%. That tells me he may FINALLY be pulling in some of the anybody-but-Romney vote.

He's making himself more accessible to the media, he's trotting his wife out to humanize him, he's being more open about himself (including mentioning his religious life/experiences/work).

I think at some point, you have to lay down all your cards and say "this is who I am, in total" and then either be accepted or rejected. Some ability to accept/risk losing is required to win over people.

If Newt is cratering it's hard to see who could step up now. Is Huntsman a stalking horse? His negatives in polling are huge. Santorum? I just can't see it. Bachmann, I can't see that either. Can Perry turn things around? I hope not. That guy would destroy the country I'm just waiting for Perry to up the ante on Gingrich and says that he would execute supreme court judges for treason.

For Romney, he needs to make a personal connection with voters. He needs people to feel "this is my man." "I like this man." Buy in at the gut emotional level. Not just a "most electable, least crap in the closet, safe-pick" choice.

I would expect that at some point someone who is desperate is going to play the Mormon card big-time, God-maker's style. We shall see.

ute4ever · 12-20-2011, 10:44 PM

Are you a fan?

MikeWaters · 12-20-2011, 11:03 PM

well let's see....

1. Perry--corrupt moron. No way in hell I would vote for him.
2. Newt--two things jump out. I quake with fear at the idea of him being commander in chief. I think he could be a warmonger like we have never seen before. And if he threatens to axe judges BEFORE he is president, imagine what he might do AFTER. I hate Perry, but I would probably vote for corrupt Perry before Newt, on the theory that Perry is too stupid to get much done.
3. Bachmann--I used to think she was BSC like Palin and dumb. It turns out that she is not dumb. Even if I agreed with her on most of the issues (I don't), I wouldn't install her as president because of lack of experience (*see Obama).
4. Santorum--he's a little bit too conservative for my taste, his personality grates. Not really convinced that he is a good leader.
5. Paul--I like his commitment to the constitution, although I don't personally agree with cutting the government to the extent that he favors. I like how he is willing to consider cutting military spending. I appreciate the idea of staying out of unnecessary wars and entanglements, I think that conversation is necessary. But I'm not as much an isolationist as him, by a longshot. I wouldn't want him as president, but I would consider voting for him as a kind of protest vote.
6. Huntsman--deserves consideration for my vote. Among the candidates, I bet his views are nearest my own. But not sure that he is really a leader, kind of like Santorum. Just how serious is he? There have been a couple of times in the debates, where he has thrown out a rhetorical grendade, and then he reacts like he is trying to prevent himself from laughing or smiling. It makes him come across as a kid, not the president. He's not been good at all in communicating. Maybe he can improve.
7. Romney--a lot of his allure is the idea that he is a competent grown up who can actually make the wheels of government turn and get things done. I really don't like it when he goes hyper-conservative. Unlike some, I don't really doubt that he would be largely conservative as president, because of Mormon cultural bias. It's hard for me to imagine someone as buttoned-down Mormon as him being liberal. But that may or may not be true. I don't really feel an emotional connection with him however. The exception was a moment in the last debate, where he said that this was going to be "an American century." That delivery in that moment actually sent a charge through me. And that has almost never happened with Romney.

To answer your question, if I pulled the lever today, it would be for Romney.

MikeWaters · 01-03-2012, 06:53 PM

No matter how Romney spins it, today is a big day for him.

If he wins, that's a big step towards nailing down the nomination and gives him mo' going into NH.

Finishing 2nd or 3rd to Paul and Santorum is good for him as well, but not as good obviously as winning.

Because neither Paul nor Santorum has a shot, IMO.

ute4ever · 01-04-2012, 12:13 AM

Didn't Huckabee take Iowa in 2008? This caucus is extremely overhyped.

MikeWaters · 01-04-2012, 02:31 AM

Yes, it is full of evangelical conservatives who haven't figured out if they are voting for preacher-in-chief or POTUS.

ute4ever · 01-04-2012, 06:26 PM

With Bachmann and Perry presumably gone, it will be interesting to see where their 15% of the vote goes. Romney's win by 8 votes over the only remaining "not Romney" scrap at the very bottom of the barrel who had yet to emerge sent a clear statement: that 75% of GOP voters don't want him.

Romney spent $350 in advertising for every vote received. Santorum's ratio was only $1. Is Romney going to spend his entire trust fund trying to convince his own party that he's not a creeper?

MikeWaters · 01-04-2012, 06:31 PM

First off, the Jesus-first message can only take you so far. Goodbye Santorum. Second, everyone says "Romney can't get more than 25% of the vote." "Well what about NH, where he is getting over 40%?" "We don't count that state."

And no Romney is not going to spend his money, at least not much of it. He has said so. In case you haven't noticed, he has well-heeled backers.

Tex · 01-04-2012, 06:56 PM

Perry is staying in, at least until South Carolina.

The punditry on the right is schizophrenic at the moment. Some say this is great for Romney and some say it spells his doom. I've never been a huge Romney fan, but I'm perplexed at why people think Santorum or Gingrich make a better candidate.

Romney has two major problems: one, people don't like him personally, and two, people don't believe him in his recent conversion to conservatism. But in his favor, the alternatives are all incredibly weak. Feels a little like McCain 2008 all over again.

MikeWaters · 01-04-2012, 07:08 PM

As weak as Romney is, it's hard to imagine any of the others winning the nomination.

As some have already mentioned, I think a lot of Santorum's momentum is due to lack of vetting. Let's see if he can stand the same spotlight that the others have wilted under.

12-20-2011, 06:52 PM	#1
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	This is Romney's moment Newt's numbers going down, Romney's stabilizing and going up even. The best news I have heard for Romney that puts both he and New at 30% (I think nationally). That 30% for Romney is higher than 20%, and higher than 25%. That tells me he may FINALLY be pulling in some of the anybody-but-Romney vote. He's making himself more accessible to the media, he's trotting his wife out to humanize him, he's being more open about himself (including mentioning his religious life/experiences/work). I think at some point, you have to lay down all your cards and say "this is who I am, in total" and then either be accepted or rejected. Some ability to accept/risk losing is required to win over people. If Newt is cratering it's hard to see who could step up now. Is Huntsman a stalking horse? His negatives in polling are huge. Santorum? I just can't see it. Bachmann, I can't see that either. Can Perry turn things around? I hope not. That guy would destroy the country I'm just waiting for Perry to up the ante on Gingrich and says that he would execute supreme court judges for treason. For Romney, he needs to make a personal connection with voters. He needs people to feel "this is my man." "I like this man." Buy in at the gut emotional level. Not just a "most electable, least crap in the closet, safe-pick" choice. I would expect that at some point someone who is desperate is going to play the Mormon card big-time, God-maker's style. We shall see.

01-04-2012, 06:56 PM	#9
Tex Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 8,596	Perry is staying in, at least until South Carolina. The punditry on the right is schizophrenic at the moment. Some say this is great for Romney and some say it spells his doom. I've never been a huge Romney fan, but I'm perplexed at why people think Santorum or Gingrich make a better candidate. Romney has two major problems: one, people don't like him personally, and two, people don't believe him in his recent conversion to conservatism. But in his favor, the alternatives are all incredibly weak. Feels a little like McCain 2008 all over again. __________________ "Have we been commanded not to call a prophet an insular racist? Link?" "And yes, [2010] is a very good year to be a Democrat. Perhaps the best year in decades ..." - Cali Coug "Oh dear, granny, what a long tail our puss has got." - Brigham Young

12-20-2011, 10:44 PM	#2
ute4ever I must not tell lies Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,103	Are you a fan?

12-20-2011, 11:03 PM	#3
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	well let's see.... 1. Perry--corrupt moron. No way in hell I would vote for him. 2. Newt--two things jump out. I quake with fear at the idea of him being commander in chief. I think he could be a warmonger like we have never seen before. And if he threatens to axe judges BEFORE he is president, imagine what he might do AFTER. I hate Perry, but I would probably vote for corrupt Perry before Newt, on the theory that Perry is too stupid to get much done. 3. Bachmann--I used to think she was BSC like Palin and dumb. It turns out that she is not dumb. Even if I agreed with her on most of the issues (I don't), I wouldn't install her as president because of lack of experience (*see Obama). 4. Santorum--he's a little bit too conservative for my taste, his personality grates. Not really convinced that he is a good leader. 5. Paul--I like his commitment to the constitution, although I don't personally agree with cutting the government to the extent that he favors. I like how he is willing to consider cutting military spending. I appreciate the idea of staying out of unnecessary wars and entanglements, I think that conversation is necessary. But I'm not as much an isolationist as him, by a longshot. I wouldn't want him as president, but I would consider voting for him as a kind of protest vote. 6. Huntsman--deserves consideration for my vote. Among the candidates, I bet his views are nearest my own. But not sure that he is really a leader, kind of like Santorum. Just how serious is he? There have been a couple of times in the debates, where he has thrown out a rhetorical grendade, and then he reacts like he is trying to prevent himself from laughing or smiling. It makes him come across as a kid, not the president. He's not been good at all in communicating. Maybe he can improve. 7. Romney--a lot of his allure is the idea that he is a competent grown up who can actually make the wheels of government turn and get things done. I really don't like it when he goes hyper-conservative. Unlike some, I don't really doubt that he would be largely conservative as president, because of Mormon cultural bias. It's hard for me to imagine someone as buttoned-down Mormon as him being liberal. But that may or may not be true. I don't really feel an emotional connection with him however. The exception was a moment in the last debate, where he said that this was going to be "an American century." That delivery in that moment actually sent a charge through me. And that has almost never happened with Romney. To answer your question, if I pulled the lever today, it would be for Romney.

01-03-2012, 06:53 PM	#4
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	No matter how Romney spins it, today is a big day for him. If he wins, that's a big step towards nailing down the nomination and gives him mo' going into NH. Finishing 2nd or 3rd to Paul and Santorum is good for him as well, but not as good obviously as winning. Because neither Paul nor Santorum has a shot, IMO.

01-04-2012, 12:13 AM	#5
ute4ever I must not tell lies Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,103	Didn't Huckabee take Iowa in 2008? This caucus is extremely overhyped.

01-04-2012, 02:31 AM	#6
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	Yes, it is full of evangelical conservatives who haven't figured out if they are voting for preacher-in-chief or POTUS.

01-04-2012, 06:26 PM	#7
ute4ever I must not tell lies Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,103	With Bachmann and Perry presumably gone, it will be interesting to see where their 15% of the vote goes. Romney's win by 8 votes over the only remaining "not Romney" scrap at the very bottom of the barrel who had yet to emerge sent a clear statement: that 75% of GOP voters don't want him. Romney spent $350 in advertising for every vote received. Santorum's ratio was only $1. Is Romney going to spend his entire trust fund trying to convince his own party that he's not a creeper?

01-04-2012, 06:31 PM	#8
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	First off, the Jesus-first message can only take you so far. Goodbye Santorum. Second, everyone says "Romney can't get more than 25% of the vote." "Well what about NH, where he is getting over 40%?" "We don't count that state." And no Romney is not going to spend his money, at least not much of it. He has said so. In case you haven't noticed, he has well-heeled backers.

01-04-2012, 07:08 PM	#10
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	As weak as Romney is, it's hard to imagine any of the others winning the nomination. As some have already mentioned, I think a lot of Santorum's momentum is due to lack of vetting. Let's see if he can stand the same spotlight that the others have wilted under.