Question for the ladies.

[UtahDan]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

Share more about your fantasy stock exchange thing. That sounds cool.

I think the concept of it being based on movie openings is really interesting.

Is it based purely on openings or also on other things affecting the stock price of the movie company?

I hesitate here because it is like you have asked me if you can try some of my crack.

The site is www.hsx.com

Movies "IPO" when they are greenlighted and can be purchased for an initial price. The price after than moves up or down depending on how many people buy/sell or short/cover it. The number you are trying to accurately guess is the estimated gross for the first four weeks.

Here is how it works: the day a movie opens it halts trading at 1:00 pm (almost always Friday). Then on Sunday afternoon, the stock adjusts from its halt price to its weekend earnings times 2.8 (which is the historical statistical average multiplier for all movies when their total take after four weeks is divided by opening weekend gross).

So for example, Batman is currently $309.43 per share. If I own it at that price, I am banking that it will make $110.51 opening weekend. If I think it won't make that, I hold it short. I can own a max of 50,000 shares, so if it actually makes say, $10 more per share and I hold it long, I just made 500K, but the reverse is also true. After the adjust the stock resumes trading until it delists 4 weeks later. The delist is whatever the actual gross is on delist day, so you can play post adjust as well depending on whether you think it is "front loaded" (that is, most people who were going to see it saw it opening weekend) or has "wheels" or "legs" (that is, word of mouth is good and it picks up steam).

Other stocks that are weeks months or years from release move up and down on news about them such as casting, director, budget, number of screens anticipated, performance of related movies, etc.

There are also Starbonds which attach to actors and are the average of gross of the last five movies they starred in. These also adjust on a weekly basis and are the easy way to make money when you are first starting.

There are also options for any number of events like, openings where you can buy a call or put and bet on whether the movie will open over or under a certain prices. There are tons of other specialty options.

You can do anything you could do in a real market (including having to pay commission on trades) except place a stop loss. Anyway, it takes quite a while to fully figure it out and since your portfolio starts at $2,000,000.00 it also takes a while to build up to fully playing but I have been at it about 3 years, took a year off in the middle, and am almost up to 200M. There are, however, people who have been playing for 10 years or ore who open a new portfolio every year and some of them have already made 150M just this year starting from 2M, so it can be done.

If you do sign up and need advice just let me know.

[TripletDaddy]

That sounds really fun. thanks. I am going to check it out.

When I was summering in LA, I was working for an Entertainment law partner almost exclusively. it was a lot of fun and right up my alley in terms of subject matter.

He was writing a very interesting piece about the economics of Hollywood and the illusion of bigger opening takes as each year passes. Forgetting inflation, he also explained the strategy of massive launches in multiplexes, with one theater showing the same movie on 3 or 4 screens the first weekend, all in an attempt to bulk up opening weekend stats....these numbers would be used to obtain future financing, etc..

The reason I mention it is because you referenced the concept of wheels and legs.

I was just thinking on my drive to work this morning that The Dark Knight will likely have a massive summer and a historic opening weekend. But I also remember as a kid when The Empire Strikes Back came out, along with Return of the Jedi......there were no megaplexes.....the lines wrapped around the theaters for several weeks after the movie opened. Getting in to see the movie, even 3 weeks later, was a big deal. Nowadays, if you want to see The Dark Knight, just wait about 3 days, then there will be plenty of tickets and you can take your pick on about 15 screens locally.

Kind of takes some of the romance out of the old approach to movies, where a summer blockbuster truly was something that lasted the whole summer.

[mpfunk]

Several years ago there was wall street sports. You were given fake money and purchased stock in athletes in all sports. It was great fun but unfortunately it is now gone.

[exUte]

Originally Posted by UtahDan

I play a fantasy stock exchange based on movies and movie openers and am trying to figure out my play on a certain stock. Mama Mia is opening this weekend against Batman and there is some line of thought that this obvious chick flick will be an alternative to the Bat and will actually do pretty good numbers.

I wanted to know if any of the ladies here are excited about Mama Mia or if their female friends are talking about it. Also, if you plan to see a movie this weekend, it is Mama Mia or Batman or something else?

Thanks.

is going to be a bust. Oh, mama mia!

[jay santos]

I think I would take the over on the $110M Batman opening.

[marsupial]

I would see Batman over Mama Mia any day. However, if we go to the movies this weekend we would likely see Wall-E.

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by jay santos

I think I would take the over on the $110M Batman opening.

Totally. I would say more like $130-140M.

[marsupial]

With this being Heath Ledger's last movie, I bet it will be a big opening.

[FarrahWaters]

If I had the choice, I would choose Batman. I haven't heard anyone else mention Mamamia. Keep in mind, I haven't seen Sex in the City either.

I agree with Marsupial, many women will want to see this movie because of Heath Ledger.

[creekster]

I saw a clip of Mama mia on tv showing Meryl Streep singing and dacning (more like wailing and contorting) and it was not pretty. I actually sort of like ABBA (guilty pleasure) but seeing that perfromance clip makes me want to stya far away form the film.