Attention Californians: Your expectations re the Prop 8 Outcome

[RC Vikings]

Originally Posted by PaloAltoCougar

Screw Prop 7, as landpoke has me in his thrall. Drill baby, drill.

I'm more of a Prop. 2 guy [Standards for Confining Farm Animals Initiative], as I want to know that all of my tasty animals had the chance to get up, stretch, and walk around before they were slaughtered.

California must be the most regulated state in the union. It's a good thing you guys have the beautiful weather, the fertile fields of the San Joaquin valley, the towering redwoods, the miles and miles of sandy beaches, the mountains, the desert, 1000's of golf courses, Monterey, Yosemite, Palm Springs and on and on to keep attracting businesses to locate there.

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by RC Vikings

California must be the most regulated state in the union. It's a good thing you guys have the beautiful weather, the fertile fields of the San Joaquin valley, the towering redwoods, the miles and miles of sandy beaches, the mountains, the desert, 1000's of golf courses, Monterey, Yosemite, Palm Springs and on and on to keep attracting businesses to locate there.

California started going downhill after places like Naugles, Pup n Taco, Alpha Beta, Zodys, and Orbachs went out of business.

[landpoke]

Originally Posted by PaloAltoCougar

Screw Prop 7, as landpoke has me in his thrall. Drill baby, drill.

Excellent.

[SeattleUte]

The path is clear over the next eight years. Prop. 8 passes, some arrogant and eccentric N.D. Cal. judge invalidates it on Equal Protection and Right of Association grounds. The Ninth Circuit controversially affirms. WIll Obama have his Court assembled in time?

[ute4ever]

According to my exit poll, Prop 8 will pass in a landslide.

[SeattleUte]

Thinkin about thsi further, this is pretty crafty on the part of the gay marriage movement. There's no better place to tee this up than the crazy Ninth Circuit.

[All-American]

The usually reliable Intrade Prediction Market suggests it will not pass:

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/c...=1225643123171

[exUte]

Originally Posted by PaloAltoCougar

Back on point. Consider the following from, and I blush to do this, Wikipedia, about Prop 22, which started all this:

"Voters adopted the measure on March 7, 2000 with 61.4% approval and 38.6% against. This large margin of victory surprised many, since a Field Poll immediately prior to the election estimated support at only 53%, with 40% against and 7% undecided."

Attitudes have changed somewhat in the past eight years, but not so much as to eliminate the hidden biases reflected in the surprising difference between polling numbers and votes.

What hidden biases?

[exUte]

Originally Posted by RC Vikings

California must be the most regulated state in the union. It's a good thing you guys have the beautiful weather, the fertile fields of the San Joaquin valley, the towering redwoods, the miles and miles of sandy beaches, the mountains, the desert, 1000's of golf courses, Monterey, Yosemite, Palm Springs and on and on to keep attracting businesses to locate there.

And the regulations are doing wonders for the state! What's their deficit this year?

[hyrum]

Originally Posted by PaloAltoCougar

I'm curious what others are sensing here on the front. A few weeks ago, I was fairly certain Prop. 8 would fail. I now regard it as at least a toss-up and, if anything, more likely to pass. I have no scientific basis for that. But the polls show the race tightening and I think the pro-8 cause will be helped by the fact that (i) older voters tend to be more likely to vote than younger voters, (ii) the Bradley effect is probably more applicable to this issue than to race, and I think people are more likely to secretly vote yes while saying no publicly, than the other way around, and (iii) I'm really impressed with how well-organized the get-out-the-vote for Yes has been.

I'm curious what other Golden Staters are sensing in their areas. Tuesday night is going to be fascinating.

Not a Californian, but won't the massive liberal/ACORN get-out-the-vote-for-Obama effort trump this one-issue campaign?