Attention Californians: Your expectations re the Prop 8 Outcome - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

PaloAltoCougar · 11-01-2008, 06:45 PM

I'm curious what others are sensing here on the front. A few weeks ago, I was fairly certain Prop. 8 would fail. I now regard it as at least a toss-up and, if anything, more likely to pass. I have no scientific basis for that. But the polls show the race tightening and I think the pro-8 cause will be helped by the fact that (i) older voters tend to be more likely to vote than younger voters, (ii) the Bradley effect is probably more applicable to this issue than to race, and I think people are more likely to secretly vote yes while saying no publicly, than the other way around, and (iii) I'm really impressed with how well-organized the get-out-the-vote for Yes has been.

I'm curious what other Golden Staters are sensing in their areas. Tuesday night is going to be fascinating.

TripletDaddy · 11-01-2008, 06:48 PM

In South County I already know what will happen. Super conservative voter base, so Prop 8 will do well.

I think that the Yes camp has done a REALLY great job at getting out the vote and raising awareness. Much better than the No camp. Also, reports of No camp aggression towards Yes campers have turned some off, I am sure (and rightfully so).

If the polls are accurate, this baby is too close to call.

In sum:

South County: Prop 8 will garner majority vote
Statewide: Prop 8 will not pass, but by razor margin

If it does pass, I will not be surprised, either. Not at all.

Enough about Prop 8, let's now talk about Prop 7.....renewable energy, baby!

PaloAltoCougar · 11-01-2008, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

Enough about Prop 8, let's now talk about Prop 7.....renewable energy, baby!

Screw Prop 7, as landpoke has me in his thrall. Drill baby, drill.

I'm more of a Prop. 2 guy [Standards for Confining Farm Animals Initiative], as I want to know that all of my tasty animals had the chance to get up, stretch, and walk around before they were slaughtered.

PaloAltoCougar · 11-01-2008, 07:07 PM

Back on point. Consider the following from, and I blush to do this, Wikipedia, about Prop 22, which started all this:

"Voters adopted the measure on March 7, 2000 with 61.4% approval and 38.6% against. This large margin of victory surprised many, since a Field Poll immediately prior to the election estimated support at only 53%, with 40% against and 7% undecided."

Attitudes have changed somewhat in the past eight years, but not so much as to eliminate the hidden biases reflected in the surprising difference between polling numbers and votes.

creekster · 11-01-2008, 07:16 PM

I live pretty close to you PAC, as you know, and my perception is similar to yours. I thought for sure it would lose a few weeks ago but now I am not so sure. I have a partner that is a political junkie who follows all sorts of races just for the fun of it, regardless of his own viewpoints and he tells me he thinks it will pass, but barely.

He offered a coupld of interesting thoughts, that I thihk I have shared before. In noparticular order: 1. the polls under report the anti-gay marriage faction and have always done so; 2. big turnout among blacks weill help prop 8 becasue blacks disproportionately support it; 3. The Yes on 8 camp has done a much better job mobilizing grass roots support; 4. the momentum is in favor of the yes on 8 side, and he thinks it iwll continue and carry it through to victory.

He is a very conservative guy but is ambivalent about this issue, btw.

One other note. Early on in the Yes on 8 campaign it was clear to me that the vast majority of effort was from the LDS. Like 99.9% of it. In recent weeks, however, that has changed rather dramatically in our area, as we have seen a fair number of other churches and indiviuals join in and assist us. Perhaps this is the source of the momentum shift. That having been said, in our area, unlike triple's area, there is no question that it will fail. Statewide, however, it will be very, very close. I am still rpedicting a loss, but it could easily win, also. We'll see.

Are you really voting for Prop 2?

YOhio · 11-01-2008, 07:34 PM

Though not a Golden Stater, I've been to California a number of times. I predict a tie.

TripletDaddy · 11-01-2008, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YOhio

Though not a Golden Stater, I've been to California a number of times. I predict a tie.

Oh brother.

We all roll our eyes when YOhio goes into hipster mode.

BTW, I am on a list of people that monitor everyone that comes in and out of California and I don't see any mention of your name at all. I doubt you have ever been here.

Parrot Head · 11-02-2008, 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaloAltoCougar

Back on point. Consider the following from, and I blush to do this, Wikipedia, about Prop 22, which started all this:

My boss often quotes Wikipedia also. What's there to blush about there?

PaloAltoCougar · 11-02-2008, 02:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parrot Head

My boss often quotes Wikipedia also. What's there to blush about there?

Knowing your boss as I do, my blush turned to utter mortification. Thanks for piling on.

myboynoah · 11-02-2008, 02:22 AM

What's the point? Either way, California evenutally falls into the sea.

11-01-2008, 06:45 PM	#1
PaloAltoCougar Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 580	Attention Californians: Your expectations re the Prop 8 Outcome I'm curious what others are sensing here on the front. A few weeks ago, I was fairly certain Prop. 8 would fail. I now regard it as at least a toss-up and, if anything, more likely to pass. I have no scientific basis for that. But the polls show the race tightening and I think the pro-8 cause will be helped by the fact that (i) older voters tend to be more likely to vote than younger voters, (ii) the Bradley effect is probably more applicable to this issue than to race, and I think people are more likely to secretly vote yes while saying no publicly, than the other way around, and (iii) I'm really impressed with how well-organized the get-out-the-vote for Yes has been. I'm curious what other Golden Staters are sensing in their areas. Tuesday night is going to be fascinating.

11-01-2008, 06:48 PM	#2
TripletDaddy Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Orange County, CA Posts: 9,483	In South County I already know what will happen. Super conservative voter base, so Prop 8 will do well. I think that the Yes camp has done a REALLY great job at getting out the vote and raising awareness. Much better than the No camp. Also, reports of No camp aggression towards Yes campers have turned some off, I am sure (and rightfully so). If the polls are accurate, this baby is too close to call. In sum: South County: Prop 8 will garner majority vote Statewide: Prop 8 will not pass, but by razor margin If it does pass, I will not be surprised, either. Not at all. Enough about Prop 8, let's now talk about Prop 7.....renewable energy, baby! __________________ Fitter. Happier. More Productive. "Everyone is against me. Everyone is fawning for 3D's attention and defending him." -- SeattleUte

11-01-2008, 07:16 PM	#5
creekster Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: the far corner of my mind Posts: 8,711	I live pretty close to you PAC, as you know, and my perception is similar to yours. I thought for sure it would lose a few weeks ago but now I am not so sure. I have a partner that is a political junkie who follows all sorts of races just for the fun of it, regardless of his own viewpoints and he tells me he thinks it will pass, but barely. He offered a coupld of interesting thoughts, that I thihk I have shared before. In noparticular order: 1. the polls under report the anti-gay marriage faction and have always done so; 2. big turnout among blacks weill help prop 8 becasue blacks disproportionately support it; 3. The Yes on 8 camp has done a much better job mobilizing grass roots support; 4. the momentum is in favor of the yes on 8 side, and he thinks it iwll continue and carry it through to victory. He is a very conservative guy but is ambivalent about this issue, btw. One other note. Early on in the Yes on 8 campaign it was clear to me that the vast majority of effort was from the LDS. Like 99.9% of it. In recent weeks, however, that has changed rather dramatically in our area, as we have seen a fair number of other churches and indiviuals join in and assist us. Perhaps this is the source of the momentum shift. That having been said, in our area, unlike triple's area, there is no question that it will fail. Statewide, however, it will be very, very close. I am still rpedicting a loss, but it could easily win, also. We'll see. Are you really voting for Prop 2? __________________ Sorry for th e tpyos.

11-02-2008, 02:22 AM	#10
myboynoah Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Memphis freakin' Tennessee!!!!! Posts: 4,530	What's the point? Either way, California evenutally falls into the sea. __________________ Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!! Religion rises inevitably from our apprehension of our own death. To give meaning to meaninglessness is the endless quest of all religion. When death becomes the center of our consciousness, then religion authentically begins. Of all religions that I know, the one that most vehemently and persuasively defies and denies the reality of death is the original Mormonism of the Prophet, Seer and Revelator, Joseph Smith.

11-01-2008, 07:07 PM	#4
PaloAltoCougar Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 580	Back on point. Consider the following from, and I blush to do this, Wikipedia, about Prop 22, which started all this: "Voters adopted the measure on March 7, 2000 with 61.4% approval and 38.6% against. This large margin of victory surprised many, since a Field Poll immediately prior to the election estimated support at only 53%, with 40% against and 7% undecided." Attitudes have changed somewhat in the past eight years, but not so much as to eliminate the hidden biases reflected in the surprising difference between polling numbers and votes.

11-01-2008, 07:34 PM	#6
YOhio AKA SeattleNewt Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 7,055	Though not a Golden Stater, I've been to California a number of times. I predict a tie.