How much would a win against TCU help - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

pelagius · 10-15-2008, 07:51 PM

So I just wanted to gauge how much a win against TCU would help in the computer models. This isn't perfect, but I did the following: I simulated next week using the vegas spreads to determine expected margin of victory and expected win or loss. I then computed a W/L based only computer model (its a bit different than Sagarin's ELO-Chess or Massey's W/L based models but overal quite similar).

Here is the top 50 as of last week's results. BYU is 29th in this model:

Code:

NCAA Football: 2008
Computer Rating Model: W/L
Only Division 1A and 1AA games used

Rank  Team                    Rating   W   L
1     Alabama                  3.623   5   0
2     Texas                    3.582   6   0
3     Virginia Tech            3.496   4   1
4     Utah                     3.479   7   0
5     Southern Cal             3.460   4   1
6     Wake Forest              3.319   4   1
7     North Carolina           3.312   5   1
8     Oklahoma St              3.305   6   0
9     Georgia                  3.295   5   1
10    Penn State               3.286   7   0
11    Texas Tech               3.280   6   0
12    Connecticut              3.264   5   1
13    Florida                  3.256   5   1
14    Michigan St              3.241   6   1
15    Oklahoma                 3.238   5   1
16    South Florida            3.194   5   1
17    Duke                     3.179   3   2
18    Ohio State               3.179   6   1
19    California               3.172   4   1
20    Northwestern             3.171   5   1
21    Pittsburgh               3.161   4   1
22    Georgia Tech             3.135   5   1
23    Ball St                  3.113   6   0
24    Kansas                   3.105   5   1
25    Vanderbilt               3.104   5   1
26    Boise St                 3.093   5   0
27    TCU                      3.090   6   1
28    Missouri                 3.072   5   1
29    Brigham Young            3.057   6   0
30    Minnesota                3.022   6   1
31    Tulsa                    3.015   6   0
32    Navy                     3.010   4   2
33    South Carolina           2.986   5   2
34    James Madison            2.984   6   1
35    LSU                      2.971   4   1
36    Oregon St                2.946   3   3
37    Virginia                 2.924   3   3
38    Notre Dame               2.906   4   2
39    Nebraska                 2.896   3   3
40    Florida St               2.889   4   1
41    Cincinnati               2.881   5   1
42    Stanford                 2.801   4   3
43    Western Michigan         2.795   6   1
44    Oregon                   2.793   5   2
45    Weber St                 2.791   3   2
46    Air Force                2.779   4   2
47    Hawai`i                  2.763   3   3
48    Arkansas                 2.751   3   3
49    Iowa                     2.746   4   3
50    Montana                  2.741   4   1

Now the results after using the Vegas spreads to determine a win or loss for this week's upcoming games. BYU jumps to 14th. So a 15 ranking jump. If BYU wins it should really help in the W/L based models.

Code:

NCAA Football: 2008
Computer Rating Model: W/L with Simulation
Only Division 1A and 1AA games used

Rank  Team                    Rating   W   L
1     Texas                    3.654   7   0
2     Alabama                  3.642   6   0
3     Utah                     3.479   8   0
4     Georgia                  3.436   6   1
5     North Carolina           3.387   6   1
6     Southern Cal             3.381   5   1
7     Oklahoma St              3.357   7   0
8     Oklahoma                 3.349   6   1
9     Pittsburgh               3.347   5   1
10    Florida                  3.345   5   1
11    Ohio State               3.333   7   1
12    Wake Forest              3.308   5   1
13    Penn State               3.301   8   0
14    Brigham Young            3.299   7   0
15    Virginia Tech            3.263   4   2
16    Texas Tech               3.247   7   0
17    Boise St                 3.239   6   0
18    South Florida            3.237   6   1
19    Georgia Tech             3.161   6   1
20    LSU                      3.155   5   1
21    Northwestern             3.129   6   1
22    Ball St                  3.109   6   0
23    Minnesota                3.073   6   1
24    Tulsa                    3.071   7   0
25    Missouri                 3.060   5   2
26    Michigan St              3.042   6   2
27    Vanderbilt               3.018   5   2
28    Cincinnati               3.015   5   1
29    Kansas                   3.005   5   2
30    Boston College           2.968   5   1
31    TCU                      2.964   6   2
32    South Carolina           2.931   5   3
33    Oregon St                2.931   4   3
34    Navy                     2.919   4   3
35    Connecticut              2.914   5   2
36    James Madison            2.910   6   1
37    Air Force                2.894   5   2
38    Oregon                   2.883   5   2
39    Notre Dame               2.881   4   2
40    Nebraska                 2.869   4   3
41    California               2.867   4   2
42    Duke                     2.853   3   3
43    Central Michigan         2.816   5   2
44    Kentucky                 2.791   4   2
45    West Virginia            2.780   4   2
46    San José St              2.776   5   2
47    Weber St                 2.771   3   2
48    Colorado                 2.766   4   3
49    Montana                  2.747   4   1
50    Western Michigan         2.717   6   2

jay santos · 10-15-2008, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelagius

So I just wanted to gauge how much a win against TCU would help in the computer models. This isn't perfect, but I did the following: I simulated next week using the vegas spreads to determine expected margin of victory and expected win or loss. I then computed a W/L based only computer model (its a bit different than Sagarin's ELO-Chess or Massey's W/L based models but overal quite similar).

Here is the top 50 as of last week's results. BYU is 29th in this model:

Code:

NCAA Football: 2008
Computer Rating Model: W/L
Only Division 1A and 1AA games used
 
Rank  Team                    Rating   W   L
1     Alabama                  3.623   5   0
2     Texas                    3.582   6   0
3     Virginia Tech            3.496   4   1
4     Utah                     3.479   7   0
5     Southern Cal             3.460   4   1
6     Wake Forest              3.319   4   1
7     North Carolina           3.312   5   1
8     Oklahoma St              3.305   6   0
9     Georgia                  3.295   5   1
10    Penn State               3.286   7   0
11    Texas Tech               3.280   6   0
12    Connecticut              3.264   5   1
13    Florida                  3.256   5   1
14    Michigan St              3.241   6   1
15    Oklahoma                 3.238   5   1
16    South Florida            3.194   5   1
17    Duke                     3.179   3   2
18    Ohio State               3.179   6   1
19    California               3.172   4   1
20    Northwestern             3.171   5   1
21    Pittsburgh               3.161   4   1
22    Georgia Tech             3.135   5   1
23    Ball St                  3.113   6   0
24    Kansas                   3.105   5   1
25    Vanderbilt               3.104   5   1
26    Boise St                 3.093   5   0
27    TCU                      3.090   6   1
28    Missouri                 3.072   5   1
29    Brigham Young            3.057   6   0
30    Minnesota                3.022   6   1
31    Tulsa                    3.015   6   0
32    Navy                     3.010   4   2
33    South Carolina           2.986   5   2
34    James Madison            2.984   6   1
35    LSU                      2.971   4   1
36    Oregon St                2.946   3   3
37    Virginia                 2.924   3   3
38    Notre Dame               2.906   4   2
39    Nebraska                 2.896   3   3
40    Florida St               2.889   4   1
41    Cincinnati               2.881   5   1
42    Stanford                 2.801   4   3
43    Western Michigan         2.795   6   1
44    Oregon                   2.793   5   2
45    Weber St                 2.791   3   2
46    Air Force                2.779   4   2
47    Hawai`i                  2.763   3   3
48    Arkansas                 2.751   3   3
49    Iowa                     2.746   4   3
50    Montana                  2.741   4   1

Now the results after using the Vegas spreads to determine a win or loss for this week's upcoming games. BYU jumps to 14th. So a 15 ranking jump. If BYU wins it should really help in the W/L based models.

Code:

NCAA Football: 2008
Computer Rating Model: W/L with Simulation
Only Division 1A and 1AA games used
 
Rank  Team                    Rating   W   L
1     Texas                    3.654   7   0
2     Alabama                  3.642   6   0
3     Utah                     3.479   8   0
4     Georgia                  3.436   6   1
5     North Carolina           3.387   6   1
6     Southern Cal             3.381   5   1
7     Oklahoma St              3.357   7   0
8     Oklahoma                 3.349   6   1
9     Pittsburgh               3.347   5   1
10    Florida                  3.345   5   1
11    Ohio State               3.333   7   1
12    Wake Forest              3.308   5   1
13    Penn State               3.301   8   0
14    Brigham Young            3.299   7   0
15    Virginia Tech            3.263   4   2
16    Texas Tech               3.247   7   0
17    Boise St                 3.239   6   0
18    South Florida            3.237   6   1
19    Georgia Tech             3.161   6   1
20    LSU                      3.155   5   1
21    Northwestern             3.129   6   1
22    Ball St                  3.109   6   0
23    Minnesota                3.073   6   1
24    Tulsa                    3.071   7   0
25    Missouri                 3.060   5   2
26    Michigan St              3.042   6   2
27    Vanderbilt               3.018   5   2
28    Cincinnati               3.015   5   1
29    Kansas                   3.005   5   2
30    Boston College           2.968   5   1
31    TCU                      2.964   6   2
32    South Carolina           2.931   5   3
33    Oregon St                2.931   4   3
34    Navy                     2.919   4   3
35    Connecticut              2.914   5   2
36    James Madison            2.910   6   1
37    Air Force                2.894   5   2
38    Oregon                   2.883   5   2
39    Notre Dame               2.881   4   2
40    Nebraska                 2.869   4   3
41    California               2.867   4   2
42    Duke                     2.853   3   3
43    Central Michigan         2.816   5   2
44    Kentucky                 2.791   4   2
45    West Virginia            2.780   4   2
46    San José St              2.776   5   2
47    Weber St                 2.771   3   2
48    Colorado                 2.766   4   3
49    Montana                  2.747   4   1
50    Western Michigan         2.717   6   2

Thanks. I plugged in just BYU and Utah's games in my model, and it didn't make that much of an effect but still better. BYU up about 5 spots and Utah down one.

pelagius · 10-15-2008, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay santos

Thanks. I plugged in just BYU and Utah's games in my model, and it didn't make that much of an effect but still better. BYU up about 5 spots and Utah down one.

Is that for just a W/L based ranking or your ranking that takes into account MOV with dimminishing reward?

pelagius · 10-15-2008, 08:27 PM

I also did it for a raw MOV model (Sagarin predictor). The expected margin of victory is only 2 so BYU only gets a 1 ranking bump. I then recomputed the models ranking for various possible margins of victory. Here is expected rankings as a function of MOV in the TCU game

jay santos · 10-15-2008, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelagius

Is that for just a W/L based ranking or your ranking that takes into account MOV with dimminishing reward?

with MOV, I put it in at a 7 point win.

ute4ever · 10-15-2008, 08:30 PM

Jeff Lebowski · 10-15-2008, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ute4ever

Ignore this riff-raff, Pelagius. That graph is sexy as hell.

10-15-2008, 08:27 PM	#4
pelagius Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,431	I also did it for a raw MOV model (Sagarin predictor). The expected margin of victory is only 2 so BYU only gets a 1 ranking bump. I then recomputed the models ranking for various possible margins of victory. Here is expected rankings as a function of MOV in the TCU game Last edited by pelagius; 10-15-2008 at 08:33 PM.

10-15-2008, 08:30 PM	#6
ute4ever I must not tell lies Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,103