01-25-2008, 03:10 AM | #1 |
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Realclearpolitics is interesting.
I like it because it assembles so many polls in one easy to find place.
I am a bit confused, though, as to why the RCP average (which is just an average of certain polls- I don't even know how they pick the polls to average) is taken so seriously. There is no statistical reason why the average of all of the polls should be more accurate than any individual poll. So what gives? |
01-25-2008, 03:14 AM | #2 |
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Why would you be so cruel in bursting myboynoah's balloon? You know how much he loves RCP average. What's next? Making fun of InTrade?
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01-25-2008, 03:18 AM | #3 |
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01-25-2008, 03:25 AM | #4 | |
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Same concept of a mutual fund reduces risk compared to buying one stock. |
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01-25-2008, 03:27 AM | #5 | |
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The only importance I've placed on the RCP average is that for some inexplicable reason some news services place importance upon it. I agree with Cali, very odd. Nonetheless, RealClearPolitics is a very intriguing website. Had you gotten behind Romney early on Intrade, you'd be a rich man now. Sadly, that ship has sailed.
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01-25-2008, 04:10 AM | #6 |
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Sounds more like an imposition.
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01-25-2008, 06:32 AM | #7 | |
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In a mutual fund, you are hedging against the chance that one stock fails by diversifying the portfolio. In other words, you are going to get some crap stocks and some good stocks (you hope, though that isn't guaranteed either). Why would you expect a combination of polls to be more "accurate?" It may hedge against bad polls, and it may include some good polls. Or they could all be crap, or they could all be good, and averaging them could dilute the influence of the "right" poll. Last edited by Cali Coug; 01-25-2008 at 06:47 AM. |
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01-25-2008, 02:03 PM | #8 | |
Charon
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And I have seen research indicating that the average of independent predictions are more accurate than individual predictions. These were predictions made by computer models, not polls. And scientific arguments aside, I think there is value in seeing a summary of all of the polls in one spot.
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01-25-2008, 02:34 PM | #9 | |
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If the polls have reasonably similar methodology and all have reasonably credibility when it comes to accuracy (I don't know if they do but assume they do), then averaging them gives a better chance for accuracy than any one poll by itself. |
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01-25-2008, 03:34 PM | #10 | |
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