What are your pre-emptive reasons for Obama's loss?

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by Tex

I did two years ago.

http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=2242102

Funny, two years later, Lebowski is still a jerk.

I am laughing at Blue It's comment.

[SeattleUte]

Did somebody else link this interesting article?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us...prod=permalink

It seems some peoople say McCain still has a shot. The reasons are electoral college and blue state lop-sidedness overstating Obama's lead in the contest that counts, Obama's rough treatment of Joe the Plumber (seriously), Biden's gaffe predicting foreign policy nghtmare to occur early in Obama's presidency, Obama oversaturation and sense of entitlement (NPR had an extended piece on this risk), and yes, racism in rust belt and Appalacian states, including voters lying to pollsters about how they will vote.

I was surprised to read McCain's guy say that McCain is in a comparable place as Gore was a week before the election in 2000. Is that right?

[Tex]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

Did somebody else link this interesting article?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us...prod=permalink

It seems some peoople say McCain still has a shot. The reasons are electoral college and blue state lop-sidedness overstating Obama's lead in the contest that counts, Obama's rough treatment of Joe the Plumber (seriously), Biden's gaffe predicting foreign policy nghtmare to occur early in Obama's presidency, Obama oversaturation and sense of entitlement (NPR had an extended piece on this risk), and yes, racism in rust belt and Appalacian states, including voters lying to pollsters about how they will vote.

I was surprised to read McCain's guy say that McCain is in a comparable place as Gore was a week before the election in 2000. Is that right?

You have to have a valid login to read it. Here's one from bugmenot that worked:

agnostic.neocon
obama08

As for Gore, yes, he was this far behind it's true. The Dems released Bush's DUI arrest in the 11th hour which gave him a 5ish-point bump and put him back in contention.

I think the dynamics this time around are different, but you never know.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

Did somebody else link this interesting article?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us...prod=permalink

It seems some peoople say McCain still has a shot. The reasons are electoral college and blue state lop-sidedness overstating Obama's lead in the contest that counts, Obama's rough treatment of Joe the Plumber (seriously), Biden's gaffe predicting foreign policy nghtmare to occur early in Obama's presidency, Obama oversaturation and sense of entitlement (NPR had an extended piece on this risk), and yes, racism in rust belt and Appalacian states, including voters lying to pollsters about how they will vote.

I was surprised to read McCain's guy say that McCain is in a comparable place as Gore was a week before the election in 2000. Is that right?

Sure, he technically still has a shot. That is true in every single election until the votes are cast. In order to win, McCain almost has to take Pennsylvania. If he loses Pennsylvania, he needs to win all of the following states:

Florida
Virginia
North Carolina
New Mexico/Colorado (he would need one, and if he only gets New Mexico, it is a tie)
Indiana
Ohio
Missouri
North Dakota
Montana
Nevada
Georgia
Mississippi
West Virginia

If he wins Pennsylvania, he can win if he also gets Ohio and still lose the following states from the list above:

New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Missouri

That is a bit of a cushion, but it isn't much. If he wins Missouri, he can lose Virginia, and vice-versa. Still, there aren't many scenarios that look good for him right now.

He is currently losing in the following states (according to the most recent polls):

Florida (Miami Herald Poll: -7; Qunnipaic poll: -5)
Indiana (Survey USA: -4; Big 10: -9.5)
Montana (-4.2)
North Carolina (-2)
Ohio (Big 10: -11.5; Quinnipaic: -14)
Penn (Big 10: -10.4; Morning Call: -10; National Journal: -10; Quinnipaic: -13; Survey USA: -12)
Florida (-2.2)
Missouri (-1.6)
Virginia (-7)
New Mexico (-7)
Colorado (-5)
Nevada (-3)
North Dakota (-3)
New Hampshire (-5)

Good luck with that.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Tex

I did two years ago.

http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=2242102

Funny, two years later, Lebowski is still a jerk.

I love you too, Tex.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Tex

You have to have a valid login to read it. Here's one from bugmenot that worked:

agnostic.neocon
obama08

As for Gore, yes, he was this far behind it's true. The Dems released Bush's DUI arrest in the 11th hour which gave him a 5ish-point bump and put him back in contention.

I think the dynamics this time around are different, but you never know.

That isn't remotely true with respect to Gore.

Here is the CNN tracking poll for October 24, 2000:

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLI...oll/index.html

Note it was a virtual tie at this point (Gore with a 1% lead).

This doesn't even take into consideration state polls, where Obama is hugely outperforming Gore's state polling numbers from 2000.

If you want all CNN tracking data for October 2000, you can click on the link at the bottom of the page linked to above.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

That isn't remotely true with respect to Gore.

Here is the CNN tracking poll for October 24, 2000:

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLI...oll/index.html

Note it was a virtual tie at this point (Gore with a 1% lead).

This doesn't even take into consideration state polls, where Obama is hugely outperforming Gore's state polling numbers from 2000.

If you want all CNN tracking data for October 2000, you can click on the link at the bottom of the page linked to above.

Relax Cali, nobody's predicting a loss or that anything is analogous except for very rough analogies. If by some weird quirk Obama lost, I'd fear you'd have a heart attack, demanding your money back, like some kid kicking the machine.

[SeattleUte]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Relax Cali, nobody's predicting a loss or that anything is analogous except for very rough analogies. If by some weird quirk Obama lost, I'd fear you'd have a heart attack, demanding your money back, like some kid kicking the machine.

No kidding. Cali is incapable of rational exchange on any subject involving Obama. Any positive article profiling Obama or Biden is "a GREAT ARTICLE!" Anything remotely objective is met with this fortress, defensive, hollering and arm waving attitude. If Obama campaign acted this way they'd get killed.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

That isn't remotely true with respect to Gore.

Here is the CNN tracking poll for October 24, 2000:

We are 11 days before the election. Eleven days before the election in 2000 was October 27th, which your own link shows:

Bush: 52%
Gore: 39%

I don't know why you insist on being such an ass when it comes to defending Obama, but you sure do excel at it.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

No kidding. Cali is incapable of rational exchange on any subject involving Obama. Any positive article profiling Obama or Biden is "a GREAT ARTICLE!" Anything remotely objective is met with this fortress, defensive, hollering and arm waving attitude. If Obama campaign acted this way they'd get killed.

Conversely, Barbara would have some quirky, but reasonably accurate, insight into why he lost following it up with a joke.