The market is crashing, why hasn't the government stopped this? - Page 2 - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

pelagius · 10-09-2008, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

That was a bad week, back in 29.

Late July of 33 was no picnic either.

BigFatMeanie · 10-09-2008, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pelagius

I don't now what the DJIA looks like, but here are the 10 worst days in terms of rate of return for the entire market (all U.S. equities as a value-weight portfolio) from 1926-2007:

Code:

19291028 -11.170
19291029 -11.858
19291106  -9.605
19321005  -7.210
19330720  -8.457
19330721  -9.423
19340726  -7.079
19371018  -8.078
19400514  -7.172
19871019 -17.135
19871026  -8.259

I wonder why t the market doesn't ever crash in December or January? Why is October the most common month for a big crash?

pelagius · 10-09-2008, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigFatMeanie

I wonder why t the market doesn't ever crash in December or January? Why is October the most common month for a big crash?

Sorry, December had some bad days, you just have to go back more. Here is th DJIA (I can go back 1896 with the dow):

1896-2007

Code:

       +-----------------------+
       |      date         ret |
       |-----------------------|
  896. | 18DEC1899   -11.99214 |
 8288. | 28OCT1929   -13.47188 |
 8289. | 29OCT1929   -11.72882 |
22824. | 19OCT1987   -22.61054 |
       |-----------------------|

SeattleUte · 10-09-2008, 11:07 PM

I'm leaving this up to the experts, in terms of when to buy and sell.

But for what it's worth, my own gut feeling is it's going to fall a lot more. The problem is that all the prior means and methods of valuing these derivative contracts and securities are exposed as junk. These assets comprise a huge part of our companies' assets; hence, we don't know what anything is worth.

The problem isn't that they're worthless. Somewhere somehow the underlying real estate is worth something to someone. The problem is nobody knows WHAT anything is worth.

Everything was built on assumed valuations in which no one any longer believes. It's like a worlwide loss of faith. A worldwide apostasy from our erstwhile pagan gods. We need something new to believe, new shiboleths, because scrolls have been found in a dusty corner of a museum that expose all our savings accounts as a huge collective fraud.

This raises all kinds oof metaphysical questions amounting to, what is value? Questions that should have been asked all the while bankers were being paid eight figures. For what?

Maybe Lenin was right. The only real value is created by laborers.

BarbaraGordon · 10-09-2008, 11:17 PM

Did I mention that my superhero husband pulled out of the market back when it peaked last spring? Is there anything this man can't do? I think I'll start a blog about him.

Flystripper · 10-09-2008, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

Did I mention that my superhero husband pulled out of the market back when it peaked last spring? Is there anything this man can't do? I think I'll start a blog about him.

can you compare and contrast Flash to mikewaters in this blog? TIA

BarbaraGordon · 10-09-2008, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flystripper

can you compare and contrast Flash to mikewaters in this blog? TIA

I'm hoping to, but for starters I've never actually seen Mike. If anyone has any photos, please feel free to oblige.

Flystripper · 10-09-2008, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

I'm hoping to, but for starters I've never actually seen Mike. If anyone has any photos, please feel free to oblige.

Just imagine some skinny short asian dude. They all look the same, right?

I have lots of asian friends so I am clearly not racist.

BarbaraGordon · 10-09-2008, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flystripper

Just imagine some skinny short asian dude.

And here I thought he was a skinny tall Asian dude.

Tex · 10-09-2008, 11:41 PM

I keep hearing people say, "Worst economic times since the Great Depression," including all the time from Obama.

This tagline really confuses me. Have we lost all sense of proportion? Have you seen photos, histories, stories about what times were like during the Great Depression? Does anyone remember the 1970s? Hello??

Of course current conditions are serious, and of course, it could potentially get a lot worse. But economic times are FAR off what the Great Depression was like. I've said elsewhere citing the GD is the equivalent of bring up Adolf Hitler in a debate. It's weak. It's a copout.

Unemployment is at 6% for crying out loud. Six percent. That's a far cry from 25%. I get tired of this constant whiny, panicky pessimism that wants to turn every economic downturn into the "Worst Ever" (cue scary music).

Bush is not the worst president in the history of the country. These are not the worst economic times since the Great Depression. Go pick up a history book and gain some perspective, folks.

10-09-2008, 11:07 PM	#14
SeattleUte fairlds.org Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Seattle, WA Posts: 10,665	I'm leaving this up to the experts, in terms of when to buy and sell. But for what it's worth, my own gut feeling is it's going to fall a lot more. The problem is that all the prior means and methods of valuing these derivative contracts and securities are exposed as junk. These assets comprise a huge part of our companies' assets; hence, we don't know what anything is worth. The problem isn't that they're worthless. Somewhere somehow the underlying real estate is worth something to someone. The problem is nobody knows WHAT anything is worth. Everything was built on assumed valuations in which no one any longer believes. It's like a worlwide loss of faith. A worldwide apostasy from our erstwhile pagan gods. We need something new to believe, new shiboleths, because scrolls have been found in a dusty corner of a museum that expose all our savings accounts as a huge collective fraud. This raises all kinds oof metaphysical questions amounting to, what is value? Questions that should have been asked all the while bankers were being paid eight figures. For what? Maybe Lenin was right. The only real value is created by laborers. __________________ Interrupt all you like. We're involved in a complicated story here, and not everything is quite what it seems to be. —Paul Auster Last edited by SeattleUte; 10-09-2008 at 11:09 PM.

10-09-2008, 11:41 PM	#20
Tex Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 8,596	I keep hearing people say, "Worst economic times since the Great Depression," including all the time from Obama. This tagline really confuses me. Have we lost all sense of proportion? Have you seen photos, histories, stories about what times were like during the Great Depression? Does anyone remember the 1970s? Hello?? Of course current conditions are serious, and of course, it could potentially get a lot worse. But economic times are FAR off what the Great Depression was like. I've said elsewhere citing the GD is the equivalent of bring up Adolf Hitler in a debate. It's weak. It's a copout. Unemployment is at 6% for crying out loud. Six percent. That's a far cry from 25%. I get tired of this constant whiny, panicky pessimism that wants to turn every economic downturn into the "Worst Ever" (cue scary music). Bush is not the worst president in the history of the country. These are not the worst economic times since the Great Depression. Go pick up a history book and gain some perspective, folks. __________________ "Have we been commanded not to call a prophet an insular racist? Link?" "And yes, [2010] is a very good year to be a Democrat. Perhaps the best year in decades ..." - Cali Coug "Oh dear, granny, what a long tail our puss has got." - Brigham Young

10-09-2008, 11:17 PM	#15
BarbaraGordon Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Gotham City Posts: 7,157	Did I mention that my superhero husband pulled out of the market back when it peaked last spring? Is there anything this man can't do? I think I'll start a blog about him.