The reason I am so depressed about BYU

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

The problem is that these schedules are made 7 years in advance. So by the time, according to you, that complaining is merited, it will be too late.

Good point. We have to plan ahead. Look, if we can't beat these teams in the future, you really think we deserve to go to a BCS bowl because we win the MWC and beat USU and Eastern Washington.

This how to get to a BCS bowl is overrated. What about the fans who want good entertainment.

I liked our year last year even though we lost two tough games on the road. If we had happen to win those games, I would have felt we really deserved the BCS game. If Hawaii gets in this year, it will be a joke.

[SteelBlue]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

The quality to revelance ratio has never been worse for BYU than it is right now.

It's no different than it's been for many, many years.

[DJRoss]

First of all the MWC this year has one of the better records against BCS OOC among all the conferences. So that is what has created such a gap between the charter member and non charter member conferences.

Secondly, two things happened over recent years that has caused programs across the country to begin shortening their scheduling horizons down to two seasons. (I actually heard this mentioned on the radio by an associate commissioner in the SEC as well as someone on the MWC. 1. The addition of a 12th game and 2. The increased backbone of the MWC, WAC and CUSA conferences to stop taking the payola to travel to the BCS conference venues like a lamb to the slaughter.

Yes schedules look to be locked in years in advance, but those teams and dates are subject to change. The BCS really painted itself into a corner this time. Since non charter member schools in the MWC, WAC and CUSA are pushing for home and away scheduling vs. the member schools the SEC, ACC and Big East are in a quandary. Do they decide to lose a possible extra home game revenue and travel to a possible loss, or do they swallow their pride and schedule Southwestern Boondock State from a lower division?

This has increased over the past few seasons, and with the 12th game and pressure from these programs AD's and Conferences to turn 90% of their OOC into home games, they have shorten scheduling horizons and set up basically what amounts to a scrimmage schedule (at least in their minds)

This year has really shown how this is going to bite them in their collective backside. When a Big 10 team loses to a Div IAA school that isn't even qualified to play in their playoff because they are still transitioning from Div II you know things have gotten really bad.

So what does this all mean for BYU? It creates some real possible outcomes over the next few years:

1. BYU gets an invite as power conferences adjust to the 12 team system
2. Going Independent is actually not a bad idea and here is why: Read this thread
3. The MWC may appear weak to you, but the foolishness that the BCS majors are now suffering at their own hands due to weakening their scheduling has revealed not only flaws in the system that even they will have a hard time stomaching, but it has revealed that the SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big XII are not as strong as all that. The smoke and mirrors has been exposed in the worst way. Big Ten teams losing to Div IAA teams. LSU looking lost in the first half of their game vs. Tulane (a program that was on death row two years prior).

This actually opens the gate for BYU to schedule as silly as the power conferences do and if they win they are highly ranked and in a BCS bowl game. Look how sad the WAC is this year. They have gone 0-13 vs the BCS and their Cinderella Hawaii has a schedule ranking that is lower than the top Div IAA schools right now. Given the problems the BCS are having, it is possible that two of these six conferences will have a conference champion with 4 losses and that means Hawaii will get the nod if they can win out (which they most likely won't)

Don't fret too much Mike. It is all good. Things will work themselves out in the end.

[MikeWaters]

I don't like your premium BYUTV idea, because it leaves BYU with even less exposure than before the mtn.

MWC is weaker than the worst BCS conference, but better than the WAC. Yawn. (This per Sagarin).

I like the idea of fans of big programs getting tired of playing directional U. But I don't see any real groundswell. Look at A&M and UT's traditional pathetic non-conf schedules. Fans seem just fine.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by DJRoss

First of all the MWC this year has one of the better records against BCS OOC among all the conferences. So that is what has created such a gap between the charter member and non charter member conferences.

Secondly, two things happened over recent years that has caused programs across the country to begin shortening their scheduling horizons down to two seasons. (I actually heard this mentioned on the radio by an associate commissioner in the SEC as well as someone on the MWC. 1. The addition of a 12th game and 2. The increased backbone of the MWC, WAC and CUSA conferences to stop taking the payola to travel to the BCS conference venues like a lamb to the slaughter.

Yes schedules look to be locked in years in advance, but those teams and dates are subject to change. The BCS really painted itself into a corner this time. Since non charter member schools in the MWC, WAC and CUSA are pushing for home and away scheduling vs. the member schools the SEC, ACC and Big East are in a quandary. Do they decide to lose a possible extra home game revenue and travel to a possible loss, or do they swallow their pride and schedule Southwestern Boondock State from a lower division?

This has increased over the past few seasons, and with the 12th game and pressure from these programs AD's and Conferences to turn 90% of their OOC into home games, they have shorten scheduling horizons and set up basically what amounts to a scrimmage schedule (at least in their minds)

This year has really shown how this is going to bite them in their collective backside. When a Big 10 team loses to a Div IAA school that isn't even qualified to play in their playoff because they are still transitioning from Div II you know things have gotten really bad.

So what does this all mean for BYU? It creates some real possible outcomes over the next few years:

1. BYU gets an invite as power conferences adjust to the 12 team system
2. Going Independent is actually not a bad idea and here is why: Read this thread
3. The MWC may appear weak to you, but the foolishness that the BCS majors are now suffering at their own hands due to weakening their scheduling has revealed not only flaws in the system that even they will have a hard time stomaching, but it has revealed that the SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big XII are not as strong as all that. The smoke and mirrors has been exposed in the worst way. Big Ten teams losing to Div IAA teams. LSU looking lost in the first half of their game vs. Tulane (a program that was on death row two years prior).

This actually opens the gate for BYU to schedule as silly as the power conferences do and if they win they are highly ranked and in a BCS bowl game. Look how sad the WAC is this year. They have gone 0-13 vs the BCS and their Cinderella Hawaii has a schedule ranking that is lower than the top Div IAA schools right now. Given the problems the BCS are having, it is possible that two of these six conferences will have a conference champion with 4 losses and that means Hawaii will get the nod if they can win out (which they most likely won't)

Don't fret too much Mike. It is all good. Things will work themselves out in the end.

And the fans who pay money to go see the games really get screwed. If the object is to get to a BCS game, why not just save your money and go to the bowl game. The demand is great right now, but if they keep raising ticket prices and dummying down the schedule, the demand will start fading.

No one has to believe what I say. Maybe the grumbling I am hearing is just from the only season ticket holders who are getting a little upset.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by DJRoss

First of all the MWC this year has one of the better records against BCS OOC among all the conferences. So that is what has created such a gap between the charter member and non charter member conferences.

Here are the conf records this year against BCS and against non-BCS. I don't differentiate between in and out of conference because I don't think it's worthwhile to divide--you need the whole picture. Sorry for the bad formatting. The 7-9 against BCS isn't bad, but overall there's not really much to turn me on to the MWC in this data.

CONF BCS Win Loss MOV Win Pct
BIG 10 BCS 33 28 2.4 54%
PAC 10 BCS 27 25 1.3 52%
ACC BCS 31 30 -1.0 51%
SEC BCS 33 33 0.3 50%
BIG 12 BCS 28 29 -0.6 49%
BIG EAST BCS 17 18 0.5 49%
MWC BCS 7 9 -1.9 44%
IND BCS 2 7 -15.8 22%
ND BCS 1 7 -19.6 13%
MAC BCS 4 30 -21.9 12%
SUN BELT BCS 2 19 -25.7 10%
CONF USA BCS 2 23 -22.1 8%
NON D1A BCS 3 36 -31.3 8%
WAC BCS 0 13 -25.2 0%

CONF BCS Win Loss MOV Win Pct
SEC NON-BCS 17 0 24.9 100%
BIG 10 NON-BCS 17 2 18.9 89%
BIG 12 NON-BCS 24 4 23.3 86%
BIG EAST NON-BCS 15 3 21.3 83%
ACC NON-BCS 15 4 14.3 79%
PAC 10 NON-BCS 13 4 14.5 76%
WAC NON-BCS 21 15 2.3 58%
MAC NON-BCS 27 24 1.7 53%
CONF USA NON-BCS 25 26 -0.1 49%
MWC NON-BCS 23 24 -0.5 49%
SUN BELT NON-BCS 17 18 -0.7 49%
IND NON-BCS 7 13 -5.8 35%
NON D1A NON-BCS 6 27 -19.8 18%

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by DJRoss

1. BYU gets an invite as power conferences adjust to the 12 team system
2. Going Independent is actually not a bad idea and here is why: Read this thread
3. The MWC may appear weak to you, but the foolishness that the BCS majors are now suffering at their own hands due to weakening their scheduling has revealed not only flaws in the system that even they will have a hard time stomaching, but it has revealed that the SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big XII are not as strong as all that. The smoke and mirrors has been exposed in the worst way. Big Ten teams losing to Div IAA teams. LSU looking lost in the first half of their game vs. Tulane (a program that was on death row two years prior).

1. Really doubtful BYU gets invited to power conference right now. But we can hope. Only real chance is if someone raids Big XII and they need someone.

2. I agree independence is not a bad idea for football. I'm a BB fan, too, though and I worry what would happen there.

3. Totally disagree. BCS schools have actualy upgraded schedules and you see more early season cross-conference games like Cal-Tenn that you didn't use to see as often.

This actually opens the gate for BYU to schedule as silly as the power conferences do and if they win they are highly ranked and in a BCS bowl game. Look how sad the WAC is this year. They have gone 0-13 vs the BCS and their Cinderella Hawaii has a schedule ranking that is lower than the top Div IAA schools right now. Given the problems the BCS are having, it is possible that two of these six conferences will have a conference champion with 4 losses and that means Hawaii will get the nod if they can win out (which they most likely won't)

The gate is open for BYU but not due to scheduling. BYU will make a BCS if they are top 12 and higher than any other non-BCS and most likely if they are top 16 and higher than any other non-BCS. Our competition for BCS game now is Boise, TCU, Hawaii, etc. I predict at least one non-BCS will make BCS game at least every other year as long as rules are in place. We can get to #12/#16 by scheduling really tough and go 10-2, like we are now and go 11-1, or by scheduling really weak and go 12-0. It's more a matter of personal preference not a matter of BCS through scheduling strategy. You have to be good enough to get yourself ranked that high and you're generally not going to fool anyone. P.S. Hawaii is not a top 16 team and therefore no matter how easy their schedule is, they'll lose a game and fall out of BCS contention. If a non-BCS makes it this year, it will be Boise with one loss.

[DJRoss]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

I don't like your premium BYUTV idea, because it leaves BYU with even less exposure than before the mtn.

MWC is weaker than the worst BCS conference, but better than the WAC. Yawn. (This per Sagarin).

I like the idea of fans of big programs getting tired of playing directional U. But I don't see any real groundswell. Look at A&M and UT's traditional pathetic non-conf schedules. Fans seem just fine.

The MWC has to take a hit on playing potentially huge opponents to look good for the sake of stacking home games. It is better to begin building our own tower of cards using the same tactics as the charter members.

From 1985 to 2005 the ACC played all non bcs or non charter member schools at home 83.5% of the time. With the emphasis of putting butts in seats schedules are being dumbed down. I haven't crunched the numbers on the SEC yet, but they initially look even worse. If The MWC were to schedule the way the SEC does to ensure that they are playing at home 3/4 or 4/4 times each season they are building revenue streams as well as stacking their numbers. It doesn't matter if the SOS is in the toilet anymore. It is about winning which will become a self fulfilling SOS prophecy. The Big East has understood this which is why they get away with having such pathetic SOS starting each season, but still have 3 top 25 teams.

If 6 out of 9 MWC teams were to go 4-0 OOC beating up on teams they are likely to beat, than they could each go .500 in conference and still come out 8-4. However the likelihood is that the conference would have two teams with 10+ wins with four in the 9+ win category and 7 teams all bowl eligible.

Sure the initial squawking would be heard in the media about how weak the MWC scheduling is, but after a couple of seasons, the computer polls would begin calculating the MWC teams with 4-0 and 3-1 records as contributing to each others SOS so by seasons end the magic of improve SOS would create the same illusion the Big East has succeeded in doing.

Once the MWC goes two years in a row with 3 or 4 teams with 9 or more the status quo will be that they are a strong conference.

It is about getting their first before we try and thump the establishment.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by DJRoss

The MWC has to take a hit on playing potentially huge opponents to look good for the sake of stacking home games. It is better to begin building our own tower of cards using the same tactics as the charter members.

From 1985 to 2005 the ACC played all non bcs or non charter member schools at home 83.5% of the time. With the emphasis of putting butts in seats schedules are being dumbed down. I haven't crunched the numbers on the SEC yet, but they initially look even worse. If The MWC were to schedule the way the SEC does to ensure that they are playing at home 3/4 or 4/4 times each season they are building revenue streams as well as stacking their numbers. It doesn't matter if the SOS is in the toilet anymore. It is about winning which will become a self fulfilling SOS prophecy. The Big East has understood this which is why they get away with having such pathetic SOS starting each season, but still have 3 top 25 teams.

If 6 out of 9 MWC teams were to go 4-0 OOC beating up on teams they are likely to beat, than they could each go .500 in conference and still come out 8-4. However the likelihood is that the conference would have two teams with 10+ wins with four in the 9+ win category and 7 teams all bowl eligible.

Sure the initial squawking would be heard in the media about how weak the MWC scheduling is, but after a couple of seasons, the computer polls would begin calculating the MWC teams with 4-0 and 3-1 records as contributing to each others SOS so by seasons end the magic of improve SOS would create the same illusion the Big East has succeeded in doing.

Once the MWC goes two years in a row with 3 or 4 teams with 9 or more the status quo will be that they are a strong conference.

It is about getting their first before we try and thump the establishment.

Again my question are you in favor of dummying down the schedule to get to a BCS game?? How do you feel about the fans who buy season tickets getting ripped off. Would you be in favor of lowering ticket prices.

Why should people who pay $500 to $3000 a year in ticket prices plus Cougar dues pay for everyones chance to see a BCS bowl game, maybe??

I don't think over the long haul screwing your customers for a big pay day works.

[DJRoss]

Originally Posted by BYU71

And the fans who pay money to go see the games really get screwed. If the object is to get to a BCS game, why not just save your money and go to the bowl game. The demand is great right now, but if they keep raising ticket prices and dummying down the schedule, the demand will start fading.

No one has to believe what I say. Maybe the grumbling I am hearing is just from the only season ticket holders who are getting a little upset.

I have to agree that it isn't so fun going to games where the outcome is so clear. We all like to believe our team will always win, but when you are scheduling Chattanooga and its directional cousins each year where is the excitement? Unfortunately for the MWC to become a power conference they actually have to start dumping the challenging exciting games and salt their schedules with these types of teams in order to sweep or nearly sweep their OOC's. The opponents opponents schedule is only a third of the SOS calculation component, but if you scheduled Western Carolina, they may go 0-4 OOC, but 3 of those games are against SEC and ACC opponents. That means that MWC teams can get the benefit of that 1/3 which actually serves to boost their SOS enough so when conference schedule starts the two or three weaker programs provide a huge boost for the 5 or 6 strongers ones. It is sad that the game is not what really matters as much anymore, but the strategy of scheduling.