Oil speculation

[MikeWaters]

Speculation in the oil futures markets has exploded over the past few years, ever since a Republican-led Congress changed the rules so anyone could buy oil futures — not just those who actually intended to use that oil. As a result, the number of futures contracts has increased nearly 12-fold since 2001.

On Tuesday, Sen. Byron Dorgan, a Democrat from North Dakota, called that "excessive, relentless speculation."

In 2000, 37 percent of the people in the oil futures market were speculators, Dorgan said. Now, speculators make up 71 percent of the market.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...oryId=92809579

Guess who is fighting rolling back this legislation.

[Tex]

I'm not taking Dorgan's word at face value. There's all kinds of ... ahem ... speculation at what percentage of oil futures is fueled by speculators, no pun intended.

And naturally Dorgan and NPR would trace the situation back to a bill created by Republicans. Who else is responsible for destroying America, right?

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by Tex

I'm not taking Dorgan's word at face value. There's all kinds of ... ahem ... speculation at what percentage of oil futures is fueled by speculators, no pun intended.

And naturally Dorgan and NPR would trace the situation back to a bill created by Republicans. Who else is responsible for destroying America, right?

thanks for adding nothing. again. and again.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...oryId=92809579

Guess who is fighting rolling back this legislation.

Is the answer, republicans?

Republicans aren't right on every issue, just most issues.

[Tex]

The reasons behind oil prices are complex and legion. Democrats have selected what they believe is a politically viable bogeyman, since their demonization of the oil industry appears not to have caught on.

No doubt speculation has contributed to the problem, but their "solution"--clamping down--is a band-aid at best. It's smoke and mirrors. There is global concern that supply can keep up with demand, and as long as that's true, prices will float at a place where the market is comfortable, be it $140/barrel or whatever.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by Tex

The reasons behind oil prices are complex and legion. Democrats have selected what they believe is a politically viable bogeyman, since their demonization of the oil industry appears not to have caught on.

No doubt speculation has contributed to the problem, but their "solution"--clamping down--is a band-aid at best. It's smoke and mirrors. There is global concern that supply can keep up with demand, and as long as that's true, prices will float at a place where the market is comfortable, be it $140/barrel or whatever.

there is a supply and demand issue. The supply of futures contracts.

GOP is really making the wrong move here.

What has gotten BETTER after ANYONE can buy futures contracts? That's what the GOP has to sell. Except they are arguing "we don't think it has made a difference." Well, if it hasn't made a difference, THEN THERE ISN'T MUCH DOWNSIDE TO ROLLING IT BACK!

[Tex]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

there is a supply and demand issue. The supply of futures contracts.

GOP is really making the wrong move here.

What has gotten BETTER after ANYONE can buy futures contracts? That's what the GOP has to sell. Except they are arguing "we don't think it has made a difference." Well, if it hasn't made a difference, THEN THERE ISN'T MUCH DOWNSIDE TO ROLLING IT BACK!

Your argument is like asking the feds to clamp down on the artificially inflated valuations of Internet companies in the late 1990s. Gov't only makes matters worse when it tries to regulate the market too much. Americans have gotten so used to prosperity that they want to be insulated from market cycles. Bad idea.

And from a political perspective, this is almost certainly a loser. The public at large does not pay attention to what futures markets are, nor do I think they are likely to buy the line that killing speculation will be the silver bullet toward lowering prices.

It takes about a 5th grade education to understand supply and demand.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by Tex

Your argument is like asking the feds to clamp down on the artificially inflated valuations of Internet companies in the late 1990s. Gov't only makes matters worse when it tries to regulate the market too much. Americans have gotten so used to prosperity that they want to be insulated from market cycles. Bad idea.

And from a political perspective, this is almost certainly a loser. The public at large does not pay attention to what futures markets are, nor do I think they are likely to buy the line that killing speculation will be the silver bullet toward lowering prices.

It takes about a 5th grade education to understand supply and demand.

What's funny is that Tex doesn't realize he is one of the little guys, not one of the wall street guys making bank on oil speculation.

Yet he has been duped into believing that supporting these people is in his best interest.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by Tex

Your argument is like asking the feds to clamp down on the artificially inflated valuations of Internet companies in the late 1990s. Gov't only makes matters worse when it tries to regulate the market too much. Americans have gotten so used to prosperity that they want to be insulated from market cycles. Bad idea.

And from a political perspective, this is almost certainly a loser. The public at large does not pay attention to what futures markets are, nor do I think they are likely to buy the line that killing speculation will be the silver bullet toward lowering prices.

It takes about a 5th grade education to understand supply and demand.

Tex, the futures market is not the market. That would be like saying the options market is the stock market.

People talk about the need for hedging, OK fine, let those people who are legitimately in the business or a related business do the hedging. Not huge hedge funds whose sole purpose is to specualte on where a commodity is going to go.

The liquidity argument is bogus. The liquidity is so tons of trades will go on and not only the speculators make (and lose), but the people who run the exchanges make a ton of money.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by BYU71

Tex, the futures market is not the market. That would be like saying the options market is the stock market.

People talk about the need for hedging, OK fine, let those people who are legitimately in the business or a related business do the hedging. Not huge hedge funds whose sole purpose is to specualte on where a commodity is going to go.

The liquidity argument is bogus. The liquidity is so tons of trades will go on and not only the speculators make (and lose), but the people who run the exchanges make a ton of money.

you are starting to make sense.