Vegas Lines--score prediction or not?

[jay santos]

http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=2946673

It's time for my annual teaching lesson on Vegas lines.

It is true that the goal of Vegas oddsmakers is to get equal money on both sides. If they do so, they'll make 10% commission for their profit and have zero risk.

But how is this done? Basically, it is done by predicting the score.

Sports gambling is extremely efficient. The best way to ensure you'll have equal money on each side is to give the best prediction of the game. If all the best brains in the world got together and decided BYU would beat AZ by 4 points, and Vegas puts the line at BYU by 7 points, then a lot of money will come in for AZ, and Vegas will not have balance on each side.

I wish I had the link, but I read a long academic journal article on Vegas lines vs 10 or 12 popular BCS style computer statistical models. Vegas lines were more accurate on scores than any of the computer models.

So, yes it is true that Vegas' goal is to get equal money on each side, it is not true to say they don't care about who will win or that the Vegas line is meaningless when it comes to a score prediction.

[Indy Coug]

In general the spread doesn't move much from the initial spread to close, so that's an indication they and the "collective wisdom" of the betting public are largely in line.

Now, is that because Vegas can model public sentiment, or because the collective wisdom of many tends to yield the correct solution?

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by jay santos

http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=2946673

It's time for my annual teaching lesson on Vegas lines.

It is true that the goal of Vegas oddsmakers is to get equal money on both sides. If they do so, they'll make 10% commission for their profit and have zero risk.

But how is this done? Basically, it is done by predicting the score.

Sports gambling is extremely efficient. The best way to ensure you'll have equal money on each side is to give the best prediction of the game. If all the best brains in the world got together and decided BYU would beat AZ by 4 points, and Vegas puts the line at BYU by 7 points, then a lot of money will come in for AZ, and Vegas will not have balance on each side.

I wish I had the link, but I read a long academic journal article on Vegas lines vs 10 or 12 popular BCS style computer statistical models. Vegas lines were more accurate on scores than any of the computer models.

So, yes it is true that Vegas' goal is to get equal money on each side, it is not true to say they don't care about who will win or that the Vegas line is meaningless when it comes to a score prediction.

How right you are. Probably another reason why you were booted off of CB. Most posters over there won't believe it. They think BYU's line always has something to do with mormons not betting and non-mormons betting.

[Carter Group]

The BCS should use the Vegas Oddsmakers as a replacement of any of the other polls that compile the BCS rankings. I have heard this talked about.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

In general the spread doesn't move much from the initial spread to close, so that's an indication they and the "collective wisdom" of the betting public are largely in line.

Now, is that because Vegas can model public sentiment, or because the collective wisdom of many tends to yield the correct solution?

It could have something to do with the so called expert services are picking AZ to cover. I hear a guy on KALL last night pick Az to win outright. He also picked Utah to win outright.

As long as the spread doesn't drop too much lower, I am not worried. First games I would expect to be a little more volatile.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

In general the spread doesn't move much from the initial spread to close, so that's an indication they and the "collective wisdom" of the betting public are largely in line.

Now, is that because Vegas can model public sentiment, or because the collective wisdom of many tends to yield the correct solution?

That's a good question. I think the latter.

"Public sentiment" should not be thought of as a random poll or something, though. You have a lot of money looking for weaknesses in weekly Vegas lines, and that money is controlled in an intelligent way. Just like the stock market. If you took a poll on the street of which stock was better A and B, you'd have a much different result than taking a poll of the money managers who controlled most of the moves on Wall Street.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by BYU71

How right you are. Probably another reason why you were booted off of CB. Most posters over there won't believe it. They think BYU's line always has something to do with mormons not betting and non-mormons betting.

If there was something to the thing about Mormons not betting, then you would have the smart money betting for BYU every week, balancing it out over time.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by jay santos

If there was something to the thing about Mormons not betting, then you would have the smart money betting for BYU every week, balancing it out over time.

I think my point is and you can tell me if I am right or wrong, a teams fan base and their betting habits doesn't establish the line.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by BYU71

I think my point is and you can tell me if I am right or wrong, a teams fan base and their betting habits doesn't establish the line.

Yes, sir you are right. The idea is that you have a lot more money looking for ineffiencies in the line than you have money betting from fans of teams.

I bet against BYU as a hedge. The worst is when BYU loses but fails to cover.

[Flystripper]

Originally Posted by BYU71

I think my point is and you can tell me if I am right or wrong, a teams fan base and their betting habits doesn't establish the line.

Fan bases have lnothing to do with how the lines are initially established. They may have a small influence on line movement but I don't think fans are the source of handle significant enough to move lines. That kind of money is wagerd by professionals.