American Religious Identification Survey 2008

[MikeWaters]

http://www.americanreligionsurvey-aris.org/

Survey conducted in 1990, 2001, 2008.

LDS in 1990 wa 1.4%, then in 2001, 1.3%, now in 2008 1.4%.

So LDS are growing just enough to maintain "market-share." In contrast, Jews have decreasing market share.

1.8 -> 1.4 -> 1.2

There are more LDS than SDA and JWs combined in the USA.

"No religion" has grown dramatically since 1990.

This goes along with my previous statements, that it is my perception that the LDS church is doing poorly with missionary work in the USA, in relation to its expectations and mission.

I think we are baptizing a lot of poor, uneducated people that end up being poorly retained, and not-so-frequently contributing to the pool of local leadership.

I'll give you an example. Married couple joins ward. They are poor. She does some poor-paying work. He does nothing. Members donate countless meals. Church welfare system contributes. Members exhaust themselves, couple implores interminably for more help. Their attendance at church is infrequent.

You wonder, if at a certain point, when this couple (and families like this) drop off the radar into inactivity, members aren't subconsciously relieved.

I think the LDS USA missionary program is in crisis. Some might argue this is because the field is no longer white. I am not sure.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

I'll give you an example. Married couple joins ward. They are poor. She does some poor-paying work. He does nothing. Members donate countless meals. Church welfare system contributes. Members exhaust themselves, couple implores interminably for more help. Their attendance at church is infrequent.

You wonder, if at a certain point, when this couple (and families like this) drop off the radar into inactivity, members aren't subconsciously relieved.

Hard to say because I don't know the details, but on the surface it sounds like the ward leadership in the example is not adhering to the church's welfare principles.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

http://www.americanreligionsurvey-aris.org/

Survey conducted in 1990, 2001, 2008.

LDS in 1990 wa 1.4%, then in 2001, 1.3%, now in 2008 1.4%.

So LDS are growing just enough to maintain "market-share." In contrast, Jews have decreasing market share.

1.8 -> 1.4 -> 1.2

There are more LDS than SDA and JWs combined in the USA.

"No religion" has grown dramatically since 1990.

This goes along with my previous statements, that it is my perception that the LDS church is doing poorly with missionary work in the USA, in relation to its expectations and mission.

I think we are baptizing a lot of poor, uneducated people that end up being poorly retained, and not-so-frequently contributing to the pool of local leadership.

I'll give you an example. Married couple joins ward. They are poor. She does some poor-paying work. He does nothing. Members donate countless meals. Church welfare system contributes. Members exhaust themselves, couple implores interminably for more help. Their attendance at church is infrequent.

You wonder, if at a certain point, when this couple (and families like this) drop off the radar into inactivity, members aren't subconsciously relieved.

I think the LDS USA missionary program is in crisis. Some might argue this is because the field is no longer white. I am not sure.

Dr. Stewart resides in my stake, and would tend to agree with you.

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?target=law_harvest

This is his website or at least one for which he has supplied his arguments and data.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by Tex

Hard to say because I don't know the details, but on the surface it sounds like the ward leadership in the example is not adhering to the church's welfare principles.

Well, I don't know the whole story. But I have been told that the Bishop has instructed the Relief Society to stop the catering service, probably because it is counter-productive to their gaining financial independence.

But this kind of scenario is playing itself out all over the USA, as people marginally making it in society join the church. We've always operated somewhat among these margins, just because it often takes someone who is not invested in a power structure already, to break with tradition. It just seems like our capture rate of educated middle-class is declining.

Probably the most success we have in this segment is college-aged kids, who are introduced through friends and romantic interests. In which case, this would argue for increased investment in this area.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Dr. Stewart resides in my stake, and would tend to agree with you.

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?target=law_harvest

This is his website or at least one for which he has supplied his arguments and data.

Studies investigating church growth through independent parameters document that real LDS growth is modest, with high attrition. Christian researcher George Barna issued the dunning declaration: "Turnover in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints appears to be the highest of any church in the U.S."[56] The CUNY American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) queried the self-identified religious affiliation of a large cohort of U.S. citizens in 1990 and 2001.[57] The study found that the LDS Church had one of the highest turnover rates of any U.S. faith. The CUNY authors observe: "Some groups such as Mormons ... appear to attract a large number of converts ('in-switchers'), but also nearly as large a number of apostates ('out-switchers')." Because of high turnover, the actual growth rate in the number of Americans identifying themselves as Latter-day Saints between 1990 and 2001 was found to be similar to the overall population growth rate, for a proportional net growth rate of close to zero. The study found that just fewer than 2.8 million Americans age eighteen and over identified themselves as Latter-day Saints. There are 5.3 million U.S. citizens officially on LDS membership rolls, although this includes a declining percentage of minors under age eighteen as well as many inactive and disengaged adults. In contrast, the ARIS survey reported that 1.33 million adults in the U.S. identify themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses, while the Jehovah's Witnesses claim only 980,000 U.S. members. An independent survey conducted by USA Today in March 2002 demonstrated similar findings, with the percentage of individuals identifying themselves as Latter-day Saints weighing in well below official membership percentages in almost every state.58 While nominally identifying oneself as a Latter-day Saint does not necessarily imply church activity, it would be difficult to claim that those on the rolls who do not identify themselves as Latter-day Saints are active or contributing members.

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?tar...t&chapter_id=7

My experience in my semi-urban big-city ward is that the activity rate of new converts is extremely poor. And it is tough for me to remember a single case of a middle-class-type person or family joining the church. Most of them were the sort of people who were barely hanging onto their apartment rent--it doesn't bode for stability. And when these folks move around, and get switched to other wards, it often goes into the crapper.

Our strict geographic rules, I think, get in the way of effective missionary work. "Hi, I'm your friend, and I'd like you to come to church, but you are not going to be able to attend church with me in the long run." WTF?

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?tar...t&chapter_id=7

My experience in my semi-urban big-city ward is that the activity rate of new converts is extremely poor. And it is tough for me to remember a single case of a middle-class-type person or family joining the church. Most of them were the sort of people who were barely hanging onto their apartment rent--it doesn't bode for stability. And when these folks move around, and get switched to other wards, it often goes into the crapper.

Our strict geographic rules, I think, get in the way of effective missionary work. "Hi, I'm your friend, and I'd like you to come to church, but you are not going to be able to attend church with me in the long run." WTF?

Well we have three middle class families currently investigating in our ward alone, but we're a suburban ward with some urban characteristics.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by Archaea

Well we have three middle class families currently investigating in our ward alone, but we're a suburban ward with some urban characteristics.

I'm glad to hear of it. I hope my experience is rare.

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

I'm glad to hear of it. I hope my experience is rare.

Dr. Stewart's data, which is far more relevant than my anecdotes, shows your experience to be more common than mine. The church growth is stagnant at best.

Dr. Stewart does a great job explaining what is wrong with the current missionary program, in delicate terms of course.

i wonder if economic upheaval will make us more or less relevant. i have given up the Jimmy the Greek role on this issue.

[Levin]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

I'm glad to hear of it. I hope my experience is rare.

I don't think it is, Mike. Isn't it even prophetic? The meek and lowly are usually those in physical and financial distress.

Missionary work in Europe is like the US auto industry: shrinking. What does a wealthy and secular Europe need from a fringe U.S. religion?

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by Levin

I don't think it is, Mike. Isn't it even prophetic? The meek and lowly are usually those in physical and financial distress.

Missionary work in Europe is like the US auto industry: shrinking. What does a wealthy and secular Europe need from a fringe U.S. religion?

When I listen to departing missionaries, their zeal does not seem to be any less, but reading the Law of the Harvest, it appears we have not modernized our missionary efforts much. I might add, the missionaries assigned to our ward are quite competent as missionaries go.

It's hard for a rich, educated person to jump from one faith community to another. Once you are entrenched abandoning one in favor of another requires substantial reasons.