some NCAA history and the RPI

[BlueK]

History shows if you're in the top 35 you will probably get into the NCAA tournament. Currently BYU is at #35 and for the most part has been in the top 35 for the last five weeks. Wins over Utah and UNM will push them into the 20s, while losing at UNLV and at SDSU would not move them down much if at all. All bets are off if we lose a game to a non-contender or probably any home game. But going 6-2 will keep us in safe rpi territory. A win against either UNLV or SDSU would pretty much lock us in. Also, while BYU, who doesn't have a great resume of key wins, also has no bad losses (according the committee's definition, which is the only one that matters). Beating Utah will give us a nice looking win to go with wins over USU and SDSU. Granted, that's not a lot, but most teams on the bubble don't usually have many key wins and have at least one or two ugly losses. We're the only MWC team that doesn't.

Here is a list of all the rpi top 35 ranked teams (5) that didn't make the tournament the last 10 years. So, of all teams ranked #30 to #35, 92% got in. There were 2 teams in 08, one each in 07and 06, and one in 2000 that did not get in.

Now let's take a closer look at the five teams that didn't make the big dance. All have a pretty glaring problem in their resume.

2008 Dayton (21-10):
Had four bad losses to #120 Richmond, #185 George Washington, #130 Duquesne, #163 LaSalle. They also finished with an 8-8 record and in seventh place in the A-10. Yeah, that won't get you in.

2008 Illinois State (23-9):
Also four pretty bad losses: #237 E. Michigan, #105 Bradley, #131 N. Iowa, #128 Indiana State.
Only two good wins over #46 Creighton (twice). Second place team in a one-bid league. The number of bad losses did them in.

2007 AFA (22-8):
Was in pretty good shape for a while then absolutely died at the end, losing four straight, including to #183 TCU and then to #122 Wyoming in the first game of the MWC tournament. The committee doesn't want teams that enter the tourney barely stumbling in. They did go on to the semi finals of the NIT.

2006 Hofstra (24-6):
Weak overall schedule, but this was probably a snub. They did have one bad loss to #221 Towson, but they finished pretty strong, including a win in the colonial tournament against George Mason who went on to the final four. As it was, the committee took lots of heat for even taking two Colonial teams that year, so they probably weren't going to take a third with Hofstra. Of all the teams on this list, this one probably has the best case. But then again, they play in the Colonial.

2000 SMS (22-10):
Lots of bad losses: #218 UMKC, #209 Illinois St., #184 Wichita State. Good wins were against #33 St. Louis and #47 Indiana State. Bottom line, when you come from a non-BCS conference you just can't afford to lose that many games to teams ranked below 100.

Unless BYU can't get it done at home or against Wyoming, CSU or TCU, they are going to get in.