Fred Thompson finally announces...

[Cali Coug]

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Conten...jubmq.asp?pg=1

This should really shake up the Republican nomination dynamic.

I can't remember a person getting so much attention and press as a non-candidate in quite a while. Perhaps Wesley Clark, though Thompson will have much more of an impact on the election than Clark had.

Predictions on how this will pan out?

I think it will hurt Romney the most by splitting his support. However, Thompson has been included in most polls for a few months now, and so I don't expect a dramatic shift in the polls to occur overnight. My guess would be that McCain will climb back into second place with this development (behind Giuliani) and will benefit the most from Thompson's involvement.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

I think it will hurt Romney the most by splitting his support. However, Thompson has been included in most polls for a few months now, and so I don't expect a dramatic shift in the polls to occur overnight. My guess would be that McCain will climb back into second place with this development (behind Giuliani) and will benefit the most from Thompson's involvement.

It will totally hurt Romney. Yes, Thompson has been in the polls for awhile, but he hasn't benefited from the debate exposure like Romney has. Thompson is already leading Romney in several states on anticipation alone...it will not be difficult for Thompson to pass Romney nationally if he fares even reasonably well in the debates.

[Archaea]

But Thompson will now be exposed to hits. I don't really believe a Senator is a good choice, a Mayor of a large city or a Governor, but not a Senator.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by Archaea

But Thompson will now be exposed to hits. I don't really believe a Senator is a good choice, a Mayor of a large city or a Governor, but not a Senator.

I didn't say Thompson was a good choice. I agree with the others that fail to see what the man offers. But I stand by my comment that he will surpass Romney, at least for the short term.

And yes, he will be exposed to hits. But the race is largely about which candidate the party will rally around. The GOP is desperate for a Reagan, for better or for worse, and Thompson may be the most successful at portraying himself at such.

[BlueK]

Originally Posted by Archaea

But Thompson will now be exposed to hits. I don't really believe a Senator is a good choice, a Mayor of a large city or a Governor, but not a Senator.

I think I agree. Some executive experience really helps. Although it should have helped the current president and clearly hasn't. Although Texas is a weird state to be governor. In Texas it's really the Lieutenant governor who does all the work.

[SeattleUte]

Mitt is finished. Unless Thompson gets caught in a public bathroom doing something uspeakable 100% of social conservatives (outside Mormon strongholds) heretofore giving Romney grudging support will support Thompson. Romney better annuonce that he favors choice and gay rights. He can say he was only TIC when he said he changed his mind.

[SeattleUte]

Originally Posted by Archaea

But Thompson will now be exposed to hits.

What's up with me today? Three times I scanned this and read "But Thompson will be exposed to t-ts." I thought, "WTF is with you Archea?"

[Archaea]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

What's up with me today? Three times I scanned this and read "But Thompson will be exposed to t-ts." I thought, "WTF is with you Archea?"

Freud, I mean Waters, step in her please. Or maybe you've been away from Ms. Seattle too long.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

I didn't say Thompson was a good choice. I agree with the others that fail to see what the man offers. But I stand by my comment that he will surpass Romney, at least for the short term.

And yes, he will be exposed to hits. But the race is largely about which candidate the party will rally around. The GOP is desperate for a Reagan, for better or for worse, and Thompson may be the most successful at portraying himself at such.

The person who typically is the most successful at framing themselves and their opponents is the person with the most money. That war goes to Romney.

I think Thompson will make a good showing initially and will fall off the radar in the near future. Romney looks very good to win the straw poll in Iowa in August, and that should start the ball rolling for a strong showing in New Hampshire. Winning the presidency requires a tremendous organization and a lot of funding. Building that organization takes a long time. Persuading people to vote for you when they have already donated money to someone else is also a challenge. And running for president after announcing is much more difficult than running before you announce (just ask Wesley Clark).

Thompson will be a distraction, but I don't think he will be more than that. The question is who will be left standing after the distraction runs his course.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

Mitt is finished. Unless Thompson gets caught in a public bathroom doing something uspeakable 100% of social conservatives (outside Mormon strongholds) heretofore giving Romney grudging support will support Thompson. Romney better annuonce that he favors choice and gay rights. He can say he was only TIC when he said he changed his mind.

100%? I will take that bet.