BYU Football predictions

[El Guapo]

I don't know why, but I get annoyed when I see predictions that BYU will beat everyone except TCU, Utah, Arizona and BC and then go on to indicate that 8-4 could still be a good season. If BYU loses those 4 games, the season is a disaster IMO. That would mean they lost to everyone that was semi-respectable and beat the rest. Not much of a season, if you ask me. BYU needs to at least split those 4 games, maybe even go 3-1 (with a characteristic loss to an average team at some other point) for me to consider the season successful.

That said, I think they have a VERY good chance of 2-2, and a solid chance of 3-1. I don't even know if the BC game should be considered a likely loss. If it was a home game, I think BYU would win. Even so, they will probably drop a game to one of those 4 (I think TCU could be the most likely loss given the scheduling quirk).

Thoughts? I think this will be a great season that acts as a springboard for future years. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 10-2, perhaps 11-1 with 2-3 nail biters.

[Goatnapper'96]

from this squad this year. I just don't see how a defense like I think BYU will have can result in more than 8 wins. I would consider 8 wins a good year for a number of reasons.

The reality is that BYU is a program that winning 8 games in a year is pretty good. Not all that good with the high percentage of skill players returning from last year that are seniors which raises the concern that BYU just might not be able to be good again, but the reality is that BYU is reaping the rewards from some poor decisions at the end of the Lavell era as well as the fiascos of the Crowton regime. The way I look at 8 wins is that it indicates that things are headed in the right direction. It indicates that Bronco can win when he has good players in the right places. It will also buy Bronco time for next year when I expect the offense will struggle due to rebuilding. The concern I have is that if 8 wins against this schedule is the best BYU can do with the talent it has on offense and how experienced that offense is then we just might have to face the reality that BYU is just not going to be real good again.

However, I am an optimist and can look at 8 wins with both my positive and negative conclusions and believe that Bronco has the ship pointed in the right direction. If 8 wins can convince the last remaining prize recruits that BYU can deliver on their athletic aspirations, I will conclude it was a great year. Part of the issues BYU is still experiencing are the result of the poor management of the program at various levels. If those issues are being straightened out, and since Bronco took over there is no real data to indicate they still exist, I think he can take BYU to being a pretty decent program.

I will take the 8 wins and wait to see what Bronco and company can bring to the table in 2008. 2007 will be a rebuilding year, and I would be overjoyed with 7 wins, but I think that by 2008 he should have had enough time to rebuild the areas in need of rebuilding, develop his young talent and develop a talented but unseasoned offensive personnel group into a pretty good football team. I don't expect BYU to be a program that can win double digit games every year, but I think it is fair to expect BYU to have that type of a team 3 out of every 5 years. Whether we like it or not, BYU is still rebuilding a bit and will another year.

When I look at the schedule I see BYU playing a max of 5 marginal top 25 teams in U of A, BC, Tulsa, TCU and Utah. CSU will not suck either. That is six decent college teams the Y will face and 6 that will be below average. If BYU beats all the below average teams and only beats 2 of the 6 good ones, I can believe that Bronco is consistent and if he has the talent advantage he will usually win. The way he is recruiting appears to indicate that at least with respect to MWC foes, his talent should be near the tops. Hence his program will usually be near the tops.

However if he only wins 6-7 games I will probably get concerned.

[El Guapo]

Originally Posted by Goatnapper'96

from this squad this year. I just don't see how a defense like I think BYU will have can result in more than 8 wins. I would consider 8 wins a good year for a number of reasons.

The reality is that BYU is a program that winning 8 games in a year is pretty good. Not all that good with the high percentage of skill players returning from last year that are seniors which raises the concern that BYU just might not be able to be good again, but the reality is that BYU is reaping the rewards from some poor decisions at the end of the Lavell era as well as the fiascos of the Crowton regime. The way I look at 8 wins is that it indicates that things are headed in the right direction. It indicates that Bronco can win when he has good players in the right places. It will also buy Bronco time for next year when I expect the offense will struggle due to rebuilding. The concern I have is that if 8 wins against this schedule is the best BYU can do with the talent it has on offense and how experienced that offense is then we just might have to face the reality that BYU is just not going to be real good again.

However, I am an optimist and can look at 8 wins with both my positive and negative conclusions and believe that Bronco has the ship pointed in the right direction. If 8 wins can convince the last remaining prize recruits that BYU can deliver on their athletic aspirations, I will conclude it was a great year. Part of the issues BYU is still experiencing are the result of the poor management of the program at various levels. If those issues are being straightened out, and since Bronco took over there is no real data to indicate they still exist, I think he can take BYU to being a pretty decent program.

I will take the 8 wins and wait to see what Bronco and company can bring to the table in 2008. 2007 will be a rebuilding year, and I would be overjoyed with 7 wins, but I think that by 2008 he should have had enough time to rebuild the areas in need of rebuilding, develop his young talent and develop a talented but unseasoned offensive personnel group into a pretty good football team. I don't expect BYU to be a program that can win double digit games every year, but I think it is fair to expect BYU to have that type of a team 3 out of every 5 years. Whether we like it or not, BYU is still rebuilding a bit and will another year.

When I look at the schedule I see BYU playing a max of 5 marginal top 25 teams in U of A, BC, Tulsa, TCU and Utah. CSU will not suck either. That is six decent college teams the Y will face and 6 that will be below average. If BYU beats all the below average teams and only beats 2 of the 6 good ones, I can believe that Bronco is consistent and if he has the talent advantage he will usually win. The way he is recruiting appears to indicate that at least with respect to MWC foes, his talent should be near the tops. Hence his program will usually be near the tops.

However if he only wins 6-7 games I will probably get concerned.

I just don't see it that way. BYU won 6 games last year with an offense that was brand new and took half a season to get into full gear and with a defense that was about the worst in college football (AND they had a tougher schedule than this year!).

A simple extrapolation from last year leads me to believe they will be better this year. The offense was virtually unstoppable by the end of last year (averaging over 40 points a game for their last 5 games). The maxim is that offenses start ahead of defenses in a season, too. If that is true, then BYU's offense should POUND teams early and just keep getting better over time. That equals a LOT of points that other teams will have to put up to win. Arizona has good corners, but they have no practice going into the BYU game. Tulsa also has a decent D, but I don't think they can stop BYU when better teams have failed. BC will be tough all around. BYU should have crushed TCU last year, and I would call that a definite win if not for the scheduling quirk.

As for defense, the jury is still out. Is it possible they can be as bad as last year? I just don't think so. Their corners sound like they will be better (how could they not be?). The line is a big question mark, but even with the youth I think they will be at least average. They have great linebackers. With an average line, average corners, and above average linebackers, they would be better than last year. I think they just need to hold opposing teams to under 40 points to win games. They should be able to do that, particularly against a lot of the opposition they will be facing this year.

I don't think 10-2 is unrealistic.

[Goatnapper'96]

Originally Posted by El Guapo

I just don't see it that way. BYU won 6 games last year with an offense that was brand new and took half a season to get into full gear and with a defense that was about the worst in college football (AND they had a tougher schedule than this year!).

A simple extrapolation from last year leads me to believe they will be better this year. The offense was virtually unstoppable by the end of last year (averaging over 40 points a game for their last 5 games). The maxim is that offenses start ahead of defenses in a season, too. If that is true, then BYU's offense should POUND teams early and just keep getting better over time. That equals a LOT of points that other teams will have to put up to win. Arizona has good corners, but they have no practice going into the BYU game. Tulsa also has a decent D, but I don't think they can stop BYU when better teams have failed. BC will be tough all around. BYU should have crushed TCU last year, and I would call that a definite win if not for the scheduling quirk.

As for defense, the jury is still out. Is it possible they can be as bad as last year? I just don't think so. Their corners sound like they will be better (how could they not be?). The line is a big question mark, but even with the youth I think they will be at least average. They have great linebackers. With an average line, average corners, and above average linebackers, they would be better than last year. I think they just need to hold opposing teams to under 40 points to win games. They should be able to do that, particularly against a lot of the opposition they will be facing this year.

I don't think 10-2 is unrealistic.

I like how you call TCU a "definite win if not for the scheduling quirk." I think you are clearly biased, which is OK. You cite the improvement of the offense as the season wore on but you choose to ignore the improvement in TCU as their season wore on. I also believe you are overestimating the DL. I think it will clearly be below average. The dbs will be average at best and the LBs will be above average. What remains to be seen is how much the DL will hurt the other units. Time will tell. I do believe the defense is far deeper and more athletic than it has been in years, but they are also learning a new defense and will be trying to plug in up to 5 key contributors (Tialeeva, Tonga, Foketi, Fuga and Saulsberry) who have never played in this defense regardless of any D-1 experience. I can agree that they are more talented across the board than last year, but I still believe they will struggle for this year.

I am not saying that I think 9 or 10 wins is impossible. But I just believe that given that BYU faces 6 pretty decent-good college teams this year, they will lose at least 4 games.

[El Guapo]

Originally Posted by Goatnapper'96

I like how you call TCU a "definite win if not for the scheduling quirk." I think you are clearly biased, which is OK. You cite the improvement of the offense as the season wore on but you choose to ignore the improvement in TCU as their season wore on. I also believe you are overestimating the DL. I think it will clearly be below average. The dbs will be average at best and the LBs will be above average. What remains to be seen is how much the DL will hurt the other units. Time will tell. I do believe the defense is far deeper and more athletic than it has been in years, but they are also learning a new defense and will be trying to plug in up to 5 key contributors (Tialeeva, Tonga, Foketi, Fuga and Saulsberry) who have never played in this defense regardless of any D-1 experience. I can agree that they are more talented across the board than last year, but I still believe they will struggle for this year.

I am not saying that I think 9 or 10 wins is impossible. But I just believe that given that BYU faces 6 pretty decent-good college teams this year, they will lose at least 4 games.

Sure I am biased, but so is everyone else. I don't really believe there is such a thing as an "impartial observer." Everyone is influenced by something.

I don't think the change to a 3-4 will be dramatic for BYU. They played the 3-3-5 last year, but it FREQUENTLY took the actual form of a 3-4 after the snap. I just don't see it being a huge adjustment for the team.

While the D line could be below average, I will have a hard time believing it until I see it. They have some very large bodies on that line. While they don't have much experience, I think the offense will be good enough to bail them out for at least the first three games or more. The d line should be approaching average by that point in the season. Even if they are below average, the worst defense I have ever seen in a BYU uniform last year still held many teams to a decent amount of points. I feel a good year coming on...

[livecoug]

8 wins would be enough to make me happy

[El Guapo]

Originally Posted by livecoug

8 wins would be enough to make me happy

Really? Even if the losses are to Utah, BC, TCU and Arizona? How could anyone get excited that BYU beat SDSU, CSU, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, Tulsa, Utah St. and UNLV? If that is exciting, our standards have REALLY fallen far.

[Mormon Red Death]

I think byu will beat tcu and arizona

[Goatnapper'96]

They will have one hell of an exceptional season. If I had to choose a winner in the U of A-BYU game I would pick BYU. I think the whole defense ahead of the offense will be to BYU's advantage.

I really believe BYU will lose to BC and TCU. I also think they will lose at least one more and perhaps two between Utah, U of A, Tulsa and CSU. I give the advantage to BYU in the latter 3 and to the U in SLC.

However, given where the program has been just being able to consistenly beat the teams it should will be an important step forward.

[El Guapo]

Originally Posted by Goatnapper'96

They will have one hell of an exceptional season. If I had to choose a winner in the U of A-BYU game I would pick BYU. I think the whole defense ahead of the offense will be to BYU's advantage.

I really believe BYU will lose to BC and TCU. I also think they will lose at least one more and perhaps two between Utah, U of A, Tulsa and CSU. I give the advantage to BYU in the latter 3 and to the U in SLC.

However, given where the program has been just being able to consistenly beat the teams it should will be an important step forward.

I would guess the toughest games will be BC and Tulsa. I just don't see the U being very good this year and U of A has been anything but impressive under Stoops. BYU SHOULD smoke Arizona. In fact, I will predict BYU 45, Arizona 24 (maybe 31 with a late TD). The game will put BYU back on the national radar, though not deservedly because I don't think U of A will be very good that early in the season.