How will 20 states having their... - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

DJRoss · 01-31-2008, 01:25 PM

primaries/caucuses on the same day effect the momentum factor. This has never happened before, and I am not sure anyone really knows what to expect.

While Romney has lost the short term momentum, how does the media provide a clear path for McCain during Super Tuesday? It is almost impossible.

Worst case scenario Math for Romney on Super Tuesday:

"...Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)

Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 61 delegates.

Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 136.

Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.

States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:

California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26

Total 671

If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.

Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:

McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday."

If Romney can make it to a brokered convention I believe his chances increase dramatically since Huckabee will be out the window and McCain will have a difficult time with the conservative convention delegates.

MikeWaters · 01-31-2008, 01:40 PM

what if all candidates except Romney pledge to vote for McCain. Brokered convention doesn't go to Romney.

tooblue · 01-31-2008, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

what if all candidates except Romney pledge to vote for McCain. Brokered convention doesn't go to Romney.

Huckabee is the unkown factor. I think he has figured out that he is merely a pawn in McCain's campaign and he doesn't like it!

MikeWaters · 01-31-2008, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tooblue

Huckabee is the unkown factor. I think he has figured out that he is merely a pawn in McCain's campaign and he doesn't like it!

that's BS. He will endorse McCain over Romney, no doubt.

tooblue · 01-31-2008, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

that's BS. He will endorse McCain over Romney, no doubt.

I agree -but don't count him out as a wild card.

Tex · 01-31-2008, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tooblue

Huckabee is the unkown factor. I think he has figured out that he is merely a pawn in McCain's campaign and he doesn't like it!

I think Huckabee knows exactly what he's doing, and it's pathetic. His John Edwards "pay attention to me!" moment last night was truly sad.

Everyone left in the race, D and R, has a serious chance at the nomination except him. (I'm not counting also-ran Ron Paul). I wish he would get the memo.

SeattleUte · 01-31-2008, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tex

I think Huckabee knows exactly what he's doing, and it's pathetic. His John Edwards "pay attention to me!" moment last night was truly sad.

Everyone left in the race, D and R, has a serious chance at the nomination except him. (I'm not counting also-ran Ron Paul). I wish he would get the memo.

Come on. You know better than that. Romney doesn't have a serious chance. DJ Ross talking brokered convention is a sure sign he's done.

YOhio · 01-31-2008, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeattleUte

Come on. You know better than that. Romney doesn't have a serious chance. DJ Ross talking brokered convention is a sure sign he's done.

Romney is going to kill McCain at convention. Kill him.

Flystripper · 01-31-2008, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YOhio

Romney is going to kill McCain at convention. Kill him.

Dark and lonely on a Tuesday night
Kill John McCain
Kill John McCain
Huckabee barking
Do he bite?
Kill John McCain
Kill John McCain
Slip in his window
Break his neck
Cause my party
He will wreck
Got my reasons
What the heck
Kill John McCain
Kill John McCain
C-I-L-L
John McCain

il Padrino Ute · 01-31-2008, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flystripper

Dark and lonely on a Tuesday night
Kill John McCain
Kill John McCain
Huckabee barking
Do he bite?
Kill John McCain
Kill John McCain
Slip in his window
Break his neck
Cause my party
He will wreck
Got my reasons
What the heck
Kill John McCain
Kill John McCain
C-I-L-L
John McCain

Tyronne Green lives!

01-31-2008, 01:25 PM	#1
DJRoss Member Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 340	How will 20 states having their... primaries/caucuses on the same day effect the momentum factor. This has never happened before, and I am not sure anyone really knows what to expect. While Romney has lost the short term momentum, how does the media provide a clear path for McCain during Super Tuesday? It is almost impossible. Worst case scenario Math for Romney on Super Tuesday: "...Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.) Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 61 delegates. Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 136. Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63. States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis: California 173 Georgia 72 Illinois 70 Tennessee 55 Alabama 48 Colorado 46 Massachusetts 41 Minnesota 40 Oklahoma 41 West Virginia 30 Alaska 29 North Dakota 26 Total 671 If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck. Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney: McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197. It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday." If Romney can make it to a brokered convention I believe his chances increase dramatically since Huckabee will be out the window and McCain will have a difficult time with the conservative convention delegates. __________________ Click on image for my card and blog

01-31-2008, 01:40 PM	#2
MikeWaters Demiurge Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 36,365	what if all candidates except Romney pledge to vote for McCain. Brokered convention doesn't go to Romney.