Vegas futures odds out for the season

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by pelagius

The transactions costs are very high compared to other speculative markets. There is no question about that. Sportsbooks are the only speculative market that I can think of that hasn't experienced a huge drop in transaction costs over the last 20 years. My first take on the reason why is barriers to entry. The high costs imply large economic profits. The standard economic response is for others to enter to the market which leads to more competitive pricing. But the sportsbook industry has some fairly substantial barriers to entry. On the other hand there has been a some entry in the last 20 years so some of the high costs my reflect that the sportsbook market is particularly subject to problems of assymetric information (for example, there could be a few bettors who are really well informed and if the book gets odds wrong then these bettors could win a lot of money quickly).

So, betting on games offers a quicker way to get a good return on your investment than the traditional speculative market. And if you happen to know more than the guys who set the odds, you could really rake it in, though as Jay points out, you may not live long enough to enjoy the fruits of your get-rich-quick scheme.

Am I close?

[pelagius]

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

So, betting on games offers a quicker way to get a good return on your investment than the traditional speculative market.

Sorry, I wasn't clear. The opposite. Other speculative markets have lower transaction costs. Thus all else equal greater expected returns in the other markets.

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

And if you happen to know more than the guys who set the odds, you could really rake it in, though as Jay points out, you may not live long enough to enjoy the fruits of your get-rich-quick scheme.
Am I close?

The opposite, again. They guys who set the odds are scared that people might know more than them so they keep the transactions costs very high which means a bettor has to have a bigger informational advantage to make money.

Jays point is about why a guy like me (reasonably smart with some knowledge of markets) doesn't start his own sportsbook and undercut the casinos with slightly fairer prices.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by pelagius

Sorry, I wasn't clear. The opposite. Other speculative markets have lower transaction costs. Thus all else equal greater expected returns in the other markets.



The opposite, again. They guys who set the odds are scared that people might know more than them so they keep the transactions costs very high which means a bettor has to have a bigger informational advantage to make money.

Jays point is about why a guy like me (reasonably smart with some knowledge of markets) doesn't start his own sportsbook and undercut the casinos with slightly fairer prices.

I don't think the lack of clarity was on your part. I'm still amazed that if I put my card into a lone standing box, I can get money from it.

I still think you should be like a General Conference protester and shout your teachings at the folks trying to walk into the casinos in peace. That would be fun times.

[Venkman]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

I'm not an undefeated bandwagon guy, but I'm jumping all over the over side of 9 wins. The only way we don't hit that mark is if Max Hall goes down early for the season.

I agree. Anything less than 9 wins would be a disappointing season.