This is great comedy....

[Spaz]

Originally Posted by The Borg

The "odds" is a fast way for people that aren't such stat geeks to sum up all that crap of "memory" which has been spoken...ie....teams being pissed for getting run over the last two years and the mo they bring with it, injuries, how many players your team returns, how many players the other teams returns, which games are on the road, which ones are at home, adverse weather conditions possible, coaching changes, and on and on.

Now, these aren't items of "memory" per se...but they all factor in to how a season is played out, and have an effect on the outcome.

So, since I'm not a stats geek, or an English major, what is the best way to express all those factors succinctly without sounding like a spaz...oh, wait....?

And in the words of Count Olaf....."Thaaaanks for corrrrrecting me"

I disagree. People quote the "Odds" of going undefeated in three straight years of conference play as a huge hurdle for BYU to overcome this year. And that, my friend, is simply a logical fallacy. You're not the only one to do so - it's pretty common. My only contribution to this thread has been to point out that all BYU has to do is go undefeated THIS year.

BUT, my head (not to mention the ODDS) of this happening 3 years in a row (MWC) is staggering.

FWIW, I agree with the general sentiment that going undefeated this year will be more difficult that many seem to believe.

[SteelBlue]

Originally Posted by Indy Coug

BYU is going to piss away at least one game this year, like they did with Tulsa last year. They will have at least one game where they will have a few key turnovers and give up a couple of big plays on defense and lose by 10 points or less.

The potential is there, but going undefeated is a mighty elusive butterfly.

I agree. Emphasis on "at least". I have a suspicion that all this talk will be ended early in the season.

[SoCalCoug]

At least the unbounded enthusiasm and undefeated predictions are a bit more reasonable this year than they have been in the recent past.

How many of you were certain that BYU couldn't repeat its 11-2 record from the previous year?

I recall being in the minority when I said that a 10-2 regular-season record was a reasonable expectation. I was supposedly setting myself up for disappointment.

I think the efficiency of the offense this year gives the team much greater room for error - we're going to start seeing more blow-outs, where most of the MWC teams just don't have the opportunity to capitalize on a turnover or two to change the course of the game.

I predict either 1 loss (in the regular season) or an undefeated season. I think we beat UCLA at home, and I think we finally beat a PAC-10 team on the road. We will not lose to both Utah and TCU, and we will not lose a game at LES.

The offense will move back toward the 40 ppg mark, and to be honest, I have no huge concerns for the defense. We're as good or better than last year on the D-line.

Losing Kehl & Poppinga will hurt a linebacker, but losing Jensen the year before was supposed to hurt, too, just like before him, we lost Bockwoldt and Brady Poppinga, and Rob Morris, and all the other great linebackers we've had. We're loaded with talent there, and I think the new guys (with David Nixon the anchor) will not be a huge (if any) step down as a whole from last year. I seem to remember hoping that Cameron Jensen would come and have the impact we lost from the freshman David Nixon leaving on his mission. I really like what I've seen and read about from Shawn Doman on the inside, and it sounds like So'oto is making the transition well.

If there's one thing we've learned over the last two years about the defensive secondary, it's that Jaime Hill can do wonders scheme-wise with limited talent in the secondary. This year, we get to see what he can do with inexperienced but very talented players. Is there any reason to expect they won't do well?

Bottom line is, we can expect the offense to be very good for the next two years. We also can have a reasonable expectation that the defense will not be much worse than last year.

Two years ago, we were admitting that while 2007 might be tough, with losing most of the offense, 2008 could be something special. Is there any reason to doubt that now?

[Spaz]

Originally Posted by SoCalCoug

At least the unbounded enthusiasm and undefeated predictions are a bit more reasonable this year than they have been in the recent past.

How many of you were certain that BYU couldn't repeat its 11-2 record from the previous year?

I recall being in the minority when I said that a 10-2 regular-season record was a reasonable expectation. I was supposedly setting myself up for disappointment.

I think the efficiency of the offense this year gives the team much greater room for error - we're going to start seeing more blow-outs, where most of the MWC teams just don't have the opportunity to capitalize on a turnover or two to change the course of the game.

I predict either 1 loss (in the regular season) or an undefeated season. I think we beat UCLA at home, and I think we finally beat a PAC-10 team on the road. We will not lose to both Utah and TCU, and we will not lose a game at LES.

The offense will move back toward the 40 ppg mark, and to be honest, I have no huge concerns for the defense. We're as good or better than last year on the D-line.

Losing Kehl & Poppinga will hurt a linebacker, but losing Jensen the year before was supposed to hurt, too, just like before him, we lost Bockwoldt and Brady Poppinga, and Rob Morris, and all the other great linebackers we've had. We're loaded with talent there, and I think the new guys (with David Nixon the anchor) will not be a huge (if any) step down as a whole from last year. I seem to remember hoping that Cameron Jensen would come and have the impact we lost from the freshman David Nixon leaving on his mission. I really like what I've seen and read about from Shawn Doman on the inside, and it sounds like So'oto is making the transition well.

If there's one thing we've learned over the last two years about the defensive secondary, it's that Jaime Hill can do wonders scheme-wise with limited talent in the secondary. This year, we get to see what he can do with inexperienced but very talented players. Is there any reason to expect they won't do well?

Bottom line is, we can expect the offense to be very good for the next two years. We also can have a reasonable expectation that the defense will not be much worse than last year.

Two years ago, we were admitting that while 2007 might be tough, with losing most of the offense, 2008 could be something special. Is there any reason to doubt that now?

The only room I see to doubt an amazing year for BYU this year is:

-Increased effort from opposing teams
-BYU's tendency to give away games it should win.
-Injury

IMO, the first shouldn't matter in most games. The second is a concern in only a handful of games. Obviously, Injury is impossible to predict.

[cambo]

Originally Posted by The Borg

Cali-

My heart wants to agree with you. BUT, my head (not to mention the ODDS) of this happening 3 years in a row (MWC) is staggering.

Honestly, I can't recall ANY team EVER going undefeated in ANY conference in America 3 years in a row...ever.

Borg...just so you are aware, Boise St went 3 years in a row undefeated in the WAC - 2002, 2003, 2004. They actually won 31 WAC games in a row dating from the 2001 season through the 2005 season.

I believe Boise St is the only team to go undefeated in ANY conference in America for 3 years in a row during the BCS era. No team has done it 4 years in a row...which is what I'm hoping BYU can pull off. I think year 3 will be harder than year 4 since we play at TCU and at Utah in year 3 of the streak.

[The Borg]

Originally Posted by cambo

Borg...just so you are aware, Boise St went 3 years in a row undefeated in the WAC - 2002, 2003, 2004. They actually won 31 WAC games in a row dating from the 2001 season through the 2005 season.

I believe Boise St is the only team to go undefeated in ANY conference in America for 3 years in a row during the BCS era. No team has done it 4 years in a row...which is what I'm hoping BYU can pull off. I think year 3 will be harder than year 4 since we play at TCU and at Utah in year 3 of the streak.

Thanks Cambo. An amazing achievement. Wow. Be nice if the Cougs could be the first to go four!

[TheSizzle36]

Originally Posted by SoCalCoug

At least the unbounded enthusiasm and undefeated predictions are a bit more reasonable this year than they have been in the recent past.

How many of you were certain that BYU couldn't repeat its 11-2 record from the previous year?

I recall being in the minority when I said that a 10-2 regular-season record was a reasonable expectation. I was supposedly setting myself up for disappointment.

....

Bottom line is, we can expect the offense to be very good for the next two years. We also can have a reasonable expectation that the defense will not be much worse than last year.

Two years ago, we were admitting that while 2007 might be tough, with losing most of the offense, 2008 could be something special. Is there any reason to doubt that now?

There is the talent and potential at BYU to go undefeated. History has shown that they lose games they should win (@ UCLA and @ Tulsa in 07 and @ Arizona and @ BC in 06). However, this team is winning younger than previous teams.

All in all, I could see BYU being a better team in 08 than in 07 and not showing it record wise. I could also see BYU going undefeated. I think like you have said, there is a greater margin for error defensively with this team because our offense is potentially so good. We will see, as it is a fun time to be a Cougar fan again. However, if I were going to lay a bet, I would place money that BYU loses 1-2 games instead of saying they go undefeated.