71 on shorting oil - cougarguard.com — unofficial BYU Cougars / LDS sports, football, basketball forum and message board

jay santos · 01-07-2008, 08:19 PM

'71 I read your post on CB. I must admit I'm a little ignorant these days on the specifics on this sort of thing. Did some options for fun back in the day, but it's been a long time.

I have to understand this somewhat for my job so I know a little about oil.

I agree that $100 for oil is awfully darn high. I believe oil majors are using somewhere half or less than that for their assumptions for capital projects. I've heard experts say current supply and demand should equate to an oil price around $50. And that the high price is based on irrational speculation and short term supply issues that change weekly.

So, I like the idea of shorting oil. But being an efficient market guy, I would think the market has accounted for this short term issue so that long term oil puts price oil much lower than $100 and the further you went out, the lower you get.

1. What's the furthest time period out you can put oil?
2. Can you get a price greater than say $50 for anything a year or more out?
3. Where do you go to do this?

01-07-2008, 08:19 PM	#1
jay santos Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 6,177	71 on shorting oil '71 I read your post on CB. I must admit I'm a little ignorant these days on the specifics on this sort of thing. Did some options for fun back in the day, but it's been a long time. I have to understand this somewhat for my job so I know a little about oil. I agree that $100 for oil is awfully darn high. I believe oil majors are using somewhere half or less than that for their assumptions for capital projects. I've heard experts say current supply and demand should equate to an oil price around $50. And that the high price is based on irrational speculation and short term supply issues that change weekly. So, I like the idea of shorting oil. But being an efficient market guy, I would think the market has accounted for this short term issue so that long term oil puts price oil much lower than $100 and the further you went out, the lower you get. 1. What's the furthest time period out you can put oil? 2. Can you get a price greater than say $50 for anything a year or more out? 3. Where do you go to do this?