Moneyball

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by ChinoCoug

just finished the "littleball" article. unfortunately, the article is inconclusive. playoffs are too small a sample size.

it did show that faster teams don't beat slower teams, as measured by SBs a season.

Which raises another question, what would be a good measure of speed? SB doesn't take into account success rate, and success rate would be inadequate cuz if faster guys attempt to steal more. Maybe SB*(Success Rate)?

That would be SB*SB/(SB+CS) = SB^2/(SB+CS)

Maybe I just have too many questions.

Quite simply, a good measure of speed would be if a guy can get around the bases without getting out. If he can do that, he's fast enough.

Base running is more about being smart and taking what you're given than being fast. A guy with average speed who knows when to steal will always be more effective than a guy with blazing speed who doesn't know when to go and relies only on his speed.

Perhaps I just dumbed down your equation above?

[ChinoCoug]

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

Quite simply, a good measure of speed would be if a guy can get around the bases without getting out. If he can do that, he's fast enough.

Base running is more about being smart and taking what you're given than being fast. A guy with average speed who knows when to steal will always be more effective than a guy with blazing speed who doesn't know when to go and relies only on his speed.

Perhaps I just dumbed down your equation above?

Well, whether it's wise to go depends on (1) outs, (2) score, and (3) the probability you're gonna get thrown out. (3) depends on (A) how good the catcher is and (B) how fast you are.

So if you're faster, ceteris paribus, it'll increase the probability you're gonna get the base. So speed matters even if it's smart baserunning, because the faster you are, the more often it is smart to go.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by ChinoCoug

Well, whether it's wise to go depends on (1) outs, (2) score, and (3) the probability you're gonna get thrown out. (3) depends on (A) how good the catcher is and (B) how fast you are.

So if you're faster, ceteris paribus, it'll increase the probability you're gonna get the base. So speed matters even if it's smart baserunning, because the faster you are, the more often it is smart to go.

It also depends on the pitcher. If the pitcher is slow from the stretch, it will give a base runner more time to steal as well. By slow, I mean if he takes a long time to pitch the ball from when he starts his motion. If he's quick, it makes it tougher to steal.

If the pitcher is able to disguise his footwork and make the runner think he's going to pitch rather than throw over to first base, the runner is going to get caught.

A smart base runner will watch the pitcher's footwork from the stretch and learn when and when not to go. I don't care how fast he is, if he can't recognize where the ball is going, he's going to get nailed every time, by either getting picked off at first, or getting suckered into going.

I'd still rather have a guy with average speed who knows when to go, than a guy with tons of speed who doesn't.

[Surfah]

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

I'd still rather have a guy with average speed who knows when to go, than a guy with tons of speed who doesn't.

I'd rather have Willy Mays Hays. Hits like Mays, runs like Hays.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by surfah33

I'd rather have Willy Mays Hays. Hits like Mays, runs like Hays.

There was a guy who played Triple A ball here in SLC named Willy Mayes Aikens. He ended up with the Royals. Dude could hit the ball almost like Mays and could snort coke like Steve Howe.

[Surfah]

Originally Posted by il Padrino Ute

There was a guy who played Triple A ball here in SLC named Willy Mayes Aikens. He ended up with the Royals. Dude could hit the ball almost like Mays and could snort coke like Steve Howe.

Well after the blow could he run like Hays?

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by surfah33

Well after the blow could he run like Hays?

Nope. He ended up spending about 8 or 9 years in jail because he couldn't run fast enough.

[mpfunk]

Originally Posted by ChinoCoug

Well, whether it's wise to go depends on (1) outs, (2) score, and (3) the probability you're gonna get thrown out. (3) depends on (A) how good the catcher is and (B) how fast you are.

So if you're faster, ceteris paribus, it'll increase the probability you're gonna get the base. So speed matters even if it's smart baserunning, because the faster you are, the more often it is smart to go.

I don't know if there is a good isolated stat for speed out there. If there is one I am not aware of it. What I do like is looking at a stat like EqA, which has the component of speed in the stat. It accounts for guys who steal, stretch out singles into doubles, go from first to home, etc.

[ChinoCoug]

Originally Posted by mpfunk

I don't know if there is a good isolated stat for speed out there. If there is one I am not aware of it. What I do like is looking at a stat like EqA, which has the component of speed in the stat. It accounts for guys who steal, stretch out singles into doubles, go from first to home, etc.

EqA was invented to keep the masses ignorant. Have you ever tried calculating it?

It just came to me! I developed these innovative statistics myself to measure isolated speed:

40-year dash time
Time to 2nd base