Predictions for the TdF?

[Quisqueyano]

Originally Posted by DirtyHippieUTE

Assuming Ulrich and Basso both bring their best to the tour I'm going to go with Ulrich. One word... Team.

If Lance and the Discovery/Postal boys have taught us anything, it's that cycling is a team sport. Lance always had superstar riders on his team that were willing to kill themselves to put Lance in just the right position to win.

Last year Ulrich got screwed. Between Andre Vinokourouv trying to take the lead and Erik Zabel trying to win the green jersey, Jan didn't have the support of a coordinated team effort.

Look at the teams this year:

T-Mobile: Jan + gang. There are several accomplished riders but NO stand out names other than Jan. It is obvious that Jan is in the driver's seat and I think this will be his advantage.

CSC: Basso has all stars who might have an agenda of their own.

Carlos Sastre: doesn't this guy go for the polka dots? He'll be a helper if he can play the team game the way the Discovery guys did for Lance.

Stuart O'Grady: what good does this do? O'Grady is a green jersey contender and it's not like having a great sprinter on his team is going to help him dominate in the mountains (where this year's tour will be decided).

David Zabriskie: Sure he's a Utah boy and he's great at the ITT but how does that help Basso?

The rest of his team seems to be full of potential good little helpers. Namely; Jens Voigt, Frank Schleck, Giovanni Lombardi, Christian Vande Velde and Bobby Julich.

The thing is... Can CSC play the team game as well as Discovery. I think T-Mobile learned its lesson last year. I bet we'll see a much stronger team effort from them.

Side note: Who will be at the front of the Discovery pack this year? George?

If so, I give him a shot at the yellow. He could have been a podium finisher over the past few years if he weren't so busy busting his arse for Lance. If Discovery sticks to its solid team strategy the leader of the pack has a good chance. They still have an incredible supporting cast (Tricky, Echimov, Popo, George, etc...)

Correct me if i'm wrong here, but didn't Ulrich put his head through a team car window last year and leave the race early?

[creekster]

Originally Posted by Quisqueyano

Correct me if i'm wrong here, but didn't Ulrich put his head through a team car window last year and leave the race early?

Head through window: Yes, but it happened just before the Tour started

Ullrich finsihed the tour in '05, just not as well as he had hoped.

[DirtyHippieUTE]

Originally Posted by Quisqueyano

Correct me if i'm wrong here, but didn't Ulrich put his head through a team car window last year and leave the race early?

He was 3rd overall 6'21" behind Lance. He kicked some serious ass in the last TT to overtake that skinny dutch guy.

[creekster]

Originally Posted by bluegoose

He's been there, done that. 1997 - the last guy not named Lance to win the tour.

Now Basso, the last 4 years has finished something like 12th , then 7th, then 4th, and last year 2nd. No place to go but the top, if the trend holds true.

Last guy not named Lance was Pantani in 98 who, in what may have been a drug-enhanced stupor of exertion, pulled off the double Giro/TdF win that Basso is going for this year. Ullrich won it the year before Pantani.

[DirtyHippieUTE]

Originally Posted by creekster

Last guy not named Lance was Pantani in 98 who, in what may have been a drug-enhanced stupor of exertion, pulled off the double Giro/TdF win that Basso is going for this year. Ullrich won it the year before Pantani.

Pretty much every Lance hater in the world hopes that Basso can pull that off this year. He's got the pink jersey and is one of the favorites for the yellow.

I'll lay money now that if he does, all the cycling fans from across the pond will be talking about how Lance was a one race rider not an all around champ.

While I agree with them to an extent (and so does lance, he's said many times that he's nowhere near as tough as the old guys who had to race every race and not just the TdF)...

One double up by Basso does not a champion make. The Euro trash is looking for ANYTHING to keep the tour (and the sport) away from American dominance again.

[bluegoose]

Originally Posted by DirtyHippieUTE

He was 3rd overall 6'21" behind Lance. He kicked some serious ass in the last TT to overtake that skinny dutch guy.

Yes, he did make up some serious time on Rasmussen in the ITT, but this was more due to a horendous performance by skeletor. He crashed, what 2 or 3 times, had a 2 wheel changes, blew himself up. Just a nightmare. i felt bad for the poor guy. I think Ullrich breathing down his neck had something to do it obviously, and Jan probably would have overtaken him anyhow. But it had to be the worst ITT in tour history.

[creekster]

Originally Posted by bluegoose

Yes, he did make up some serious time on Rasmussen in the ITT, but this was more due to a horendous performance by skeletor. He crashed, what 2 or 3 times, had a 2 wheel changes, blew himself up. Just a nightmare. i felt bad for the poor guy. I think Ullrich breathing down his neck had something to do it obviously, and Jan probably would have overtaken him anyhow. But it had to be the worst ITT in tour history.

That really was a memroable ITT. Skeletor (and I love that nickname) was all over the road. It was like the guy had just learned how to ride a bike. I remember the second crach he looked like he just rode into the ditch and then sort of stood therre looking like he wished he had stuck with curling instead of getting into cycling while some mechanic tried to swap the wheel. Very funny but sad.