TCU not a must win

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by jay santos

The top 12 rule have only been in place one (two?--can't remember now) year. I can show you that there are several one loss non-BCS teams over the years that would have made it with the current formula.

you cant, because it would not account for the voter bias that would have and does exist under a BCS regime.

If casting a high vote/rank for a non-bcs team would have resulted in the inclusion of that team in a BCS bowl game 20 years ago, then the pollsters simply would have cast that non-bcs team with a lower vote/rank.

The reason: everyone, including pollsters, want to see "bcs" matchups in the big games. They dont want to see tulane, marshall, byu, utah, et al.

Also, the bcs formula mutated when the legitimate threat of lawsuit loomed large.

[ERCougar]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

Being mormon has nothing to do with it. ANY non BCS team will be excluded with one loss because the pollsters will drop them like a rock....much more harsh than when a BCS team loses. What does being LDS have to do with this? It really isnt even about BYU. It is simply bcs v non bcs.

Is it only coincidence that all the non-bcs have been undefeated, while most BCS teams have had a loss (or 2)?

Absolutely agree that pollsters will drop us like a rock. However, the same pollsters have publicly entertained the idea of a one-loss BYU in a BCS game; it's not a foregone impossibility. Memories are short. The same pollsters have already given us a lot of undeserved love, all because of two shutouts over two bad teams; the love would return with some big victories.

But your argument had nothing to do with pollsters--it was about some nebulous "business interest", as if there is some guy somewhere orchestrating the whole thing to keep BYU (or any other one-loss BCS school) out. I don't buy it.

[ERCougar]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

you cant, because it would not account for the voter bias that would have and does exist under a BCS regime.

If casting a high vote/rank for a non-bcs team would have resulted in the inclusion of that team in a BCS bowl game 20 years ago, then the pollsters simply would have cast that non-bcs team with a lower vote/rank.

The reason: everyone, including pollsters, want to see "bcs" matchups in the big games. They dont want to see tulane, marshall, byu, utah, et al.

Also, the bcs formula mutated when the legitimate threat of lawsuit loomed large.

So now we've shifted from business interest to personal interest in a good game. This doesn't exclude a one-loss BYU team with a lot of big wins.

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by ERCougar

Absolutely agree that pollsters will drop us like a rock. However, the same pollsters have publicly entertained the idea of a one-loss BYU in a BCS game; it's not a foregone impossibility. Memories are short. The same pollsters have already given us a lot of undeserved love, all because of two shutouts over two bad teams; the love would return with some big victories.

But your argument had nothing to do with pollsters--it was about some nebulous "business interest", as if there is some guy somewhere orchestrating the whole thing to keep BYU (or any other one-loss BCS school) out. I don't buy it.

You are naive.

Whenever large sums of money are to be made, there are always forces there to conspire to control the money.

you think voters are not motivated financially?

the coaches poll......it benefits a BCS coach to vote for a team in his own conference....because ultimately some of that money will come back to him in the form of revenue sharing.

Remember, the AP voters dont matter. It is the coaches.

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by ERCougar

So now we've shifted from business interest to personal interest in a good game. This doesn't exclude a one-loss BYU team with a lot of big wins.

It still is a business interest. The BCS business model is to maximize revenues by keeping as many BCS teams in the bowls as possible. Initially, the pie wasnt even available to non-BCS teams.

Today, the business model has not changed. Coaches are aware of that and cast their votes accordingly. there is no evidence that a 1-loss non bcs team has been considered for a BCS slot. Again, what would be the motivation for a bcs coach to vote a non-bcs team into bcs bowl contention?

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

You are naive.

Whenever large sums of money are to be made, there are always forces there to conspire to control the money.

you think voters are not motivated financially?

the coaches poll......it benefits a BCS coach to vote for a team in his own conference....because ultimately some of that money will come back to him in the form of revenue sharing.

Remember, the AP voters dont matter. It is the coaches.

Step back and think about this a little more. You'll see you're way off.

1. Almost half the coaches in D1 are non-BCS.
2. Ohio State's athletic budget is $100M. Ohio State gains < $1M if a second Big 10 team makes the BCS. Is this even worth Ohio State's coach to fudge his vote to get a second team in? Is the Big X11 getting a second team worth Ohio State fudging it?

Remember, these are the same coaches who have BYU at #7 and a one loss Fresno State at #21 with two full months to move up to #12 (or maybe only #16).

The BCS have moved past the concept of non-BCS making a BCS bowl game. It's gonna happen nearly every year from now on. If you're into conspiracy theories, get on board with the "never in a BCS title game" conspiracy. That one has more legs.

[ERCougar]

Originally Posted by TripletDaddy

You are naive.

Whenever large sums of money are to be made, there are always forces there to conspire to control the money.

you think voters are not motivated financially?

the coaches poll......it benefits a BCS coach to vote for a team in his own conference....because ultimately some of that money will come back to him in the form of revenue sharing.

Remember, the AP voters dont matter. It is the coaches.

So why the current love? If the coaches are so financially-motivated, why rate BYU so high? Moving up 3-4 spots on a BYE week? Jumping Texas Tech? They've got all kinds of great excuses to keep BYU out of the top 10 right now.

What about the Harris poll? Do they too have this "business interest"? Please specify, if so.

What about the non-BCS coaches who vote in USA Today?

[RockyBalboa]

Originally Posted by jay santos

Step back and think about this a little more. You'll see you're way off.

1. Almost half the coaches in D1 are non-BCS.
2. Ohio State's athletic budget is $100M. Ohio State gains < $1M if a second Big 10 team makes the BCS. Is this even worth Ohio State's coach to fudge his vote to get a second team in? Is the Big X11 getting a second team worth Ohio State fudging it?

Remember, these are the same coaches who have BYU at #7 and a one loss Fresno State at #21 with two full months to move up to #12 (or maybe only #16).

The BCS have moved past the concept of non-BCS making a BCS bowl game. It's gonna happen nearly every year from now on. If you're into conspiracy theories, get on board with the "never in a BCS title game" conspiracy. That one has more legs.

So if BYU loses to TCU on the road, but doesn't fall out of the Top 25 and yet wins out the rest of the way, including a win at Utah,,,,and doesn't get into a BCS game you'll admit you were wrong..........right?

Course provided no other Non-BCS team runs the table.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by RockyBalboa

So if BYU loses to TCU on the road, but doesn't fall out of the Top 25 and yet wins out the rest of the way, including a win at Utah,,,,and doesn't get into a BCS game you'll admit you were wrong..........right?

Course provided no other Non-BCS team runs the table.

Yep

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by RockyBalboa

So if BYU loses to TCU on the road, but doesn't fall out of the Top 25 and yet wins out the rest of the way, including a win at Utah,,,,and doesn't get into a BCS game you'll admit you were wrong..........right?

Course provided no other Non-BCS team runs the table.

There is no need for this scenario.

Re; the title game...we have seen 3 undefeated non BCS reach a BCS bowl. None of them was even close for consideration for the title game. Why do we need to conjecture on the future? Just look at recent history.

Also, we have never had a one-loss non BCS team in the BCS.

In terms of legs, looks like you and are the only ones that have them. I appreciate Jay's position, but it is entirely conjecture.

I suppose it could happen that a 1-loss non-BCS team scraps its way back up the polls to claim an at large berth......i can see all the bowl selection committees lining up now....."We will pass on a 2-loss Georgia....a 1-loss USC.....and a 1 loss Ohio State........we would prefer to see BYU play in our bowl game. The BYU that lost to UNLV."