Wyoming? New Mexico?

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Judge Smails

I don't feel quite so alone on planet Cougarguard any more.

Yeah, but you can then spend $10M+ on wax removal.

[Judge Smails]

Originally Posted by jay santos

Based on a simple probability model and my computer rankings, #38 is the equilibrium where a team would have a 50% chance to go undefeated with Hawaii's 8 game schedule thus far.

Your probablities are close, but the La Tech away game is a .78 and the San Jose away game is a .82.

So anyone higher than #38 would have < 50% chance to go undefeated.

...and I suspect we believe the same thing - where do you think Human Polls should have Hawaii "ranked"?

As a computer believer I think you'd suggest 31, to which I'd agree. The computers believe SOS to be more important than the pollsters. I agree, and based on your prior posts regarding computer rankings, I think you probably agree.

Perhaps 60 -70 teams going undefeated against that schedule is a little strong, but if your computer model is correct and 38 would have a better than 50% chance of going undefeated, I think that's pretty telling - any of these 38 could be in BCS position despite not being anywhere near the computer defined top 15.

Seriously, the human polls are WAY off on Hawaii and because of it they are primed for a BCS bowl. It's stupid - that's my whole argument.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Judge Smails

...and I suspect we believe the same thing - where do you think Human Polls should have Hawaii "ranked"?

As a computer believer I think you'd suggest 31, to which I'd agree.

I strongly believe computers have a better ability to rank teams than humans. I've only seen Hawaii play the end of the SJSU game. The computers can consider all of their scores, combined with all of the scores of their opponents, etc.

The computers believe SOS to be more important than the pollsters. I agree, and based on your prior posts regarding computer rankings, I think you probably agree.

This is not always true. Boise last year, Utah 2004, and BYU last year were examples where non-BCS schools with weak schedules were ranked higher in the computers than in the human polls. For BCS schools, I agree, human polls are slightly less SOS-intensive. For non-BCS schools it's hit and miss. It's a strange phenomenom which teams become media darlings and therefore make it higher in human polls than computers.

Perhaps 60 -70 teams going undefeated against that schedule is a little strong, but if your computer model is correct and 38 would have a better than 50% chance of going undefeated, I think that's pretty telling - any of these 38 could be in BCS position despite not being anywhere near the computer defined top 15.

Hawaii is a 1/100 strange case of being weak SOS. I'm not sure there's ever been a team undefeated and 8-0 against worst teams ever in the history of the game. So as such an outlier, they're going to be tough for both humans and computers to peg right. These last four games will tell where they belong. If they run the table, I believe they deserve the rating they're at now.

[MikeWaters]

If Hawaii runs the table, they will deserve to be ranked higher than they are right now.

[Judge Smails]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

If Hawaii runs the table, they will deserve to be ranked higher than they are right now.

...disagree more. But I'm not going to argue it any more.

[MikeWaters]

Originally Posted by Judge Smails

...disagree more. But I'm not going to argue it any more.

Only the unabomber will agree with you. But that's ok, because I hear he knows his football. At least, for someone who hasn't watched it in 20 years.

[jay santos]

Originally Posted by Judge Smails

...disagree more. But I'm not going to argue it any more.

http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=13446

Here's where I stand on where Hawaii should be ranked if they go undefeated. About #10.