Rasmussen showing a 3-point move toward McCain

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Ma'ake

Leaving aside movements in the national polls, what about the all important array of battleground states?

The 538 guys seem to have a solid handle on accounting for poll variability, with an eye toward the states that really count. (For example, yesterday's projected electoral count for Obama was 355. A slight move toward McCain, but an enormous mountain for McCain to climb)

www.fivethirtyeight.com

That is my new favorite website. His analysis has been spot on thus far.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

That is my new favorite website. His analysis has been spot on thus far.

I like Nate but he's going to have to learn to keep his opinions to himself and let the numbers speak for themselves.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

I like Nate but he's going to have to learn to keep his opinions to himself and let the numbers speak for themselves.

I don't think he hides the fact that he is liberal in his opinions. He is adamant that his opinions do not influence his model or his data, and, so far, his site's short history is supporting that claim. He was right on with several of the primaries. There is a possibility that the polls are all wrong with respect to the general election and that his model will totally blow it, but if that is the case, it won't be only his model that blows it. It will be everyone's.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

I don't think he hides the fact that he is liberal in his opinions. He is adamant that his opinions do not influence his model or his data, and, so far, his site's short history is supporting that claim. He was right on with several of the primaries. There is a possibility that the polls are all wrong with respect to the general election and that his model will totally blow it, but if that is the case, it won't be only his model that blows it. It will be everyone's.

Math is math. I'm not claiming otherwise. But he would have been wise not to allow his site to serve as a venue for Obama-koolaid-drinking McCain-bashing for so long. It leaves the impression of bias with his readers. He clearly wants to make a career out of nonpartisan statistical political analysis, so it was pretty foolish of him to have handled the first six months in the way that he did. Just my opinion.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

Math is math. I'm not claiming otherwise. But he would have been wise not to allow his site to serve as a venue for Obama-koolaid-drinking McCain-bashing for so long. It leaves the impression of bias with his readers. He clearly wants to make a career out of nonpartisan statistical political analysis, so it was pretty foolish of him to have handled the first six months in the way that he did. Just my opinion.

Yeah, that could be. I think it is pretty well-known that he got his start on DailyKos as a regular contributor, though. I don't know if the image of "unbiased analyst" was ever going to stick with him.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

That is my new favorite website. His analysis has been spot on thus far.

Not sure how the analysis can be spot on when no one's voted yet.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by Tex

Not sure how the analysis can be spot on when no one's voted yet.

He's been publishing analysis and projections at his 538 site since February, Tex. He does have a strong track record.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by Tex

Not sure how the analysis can be spot on when no one's voted yet.

You would have found the answer if you had read the entire post (which notes his successes on projecting the primaries).

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

You would have found the answer if you had read the entire post (which notes his successes on projecting the primaries).

I overlooked that sentence. My apologies.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

Get back to me when a state poll in the following makes a significant shift. Then there is something to talk about:

I just picked a few and ran the Rasmussen numbers for the last 2 weeks (which is about as often as he polls):

Penn -- shift toward McCain of 6 points, down 7%
VA -- shift toward McCain of 6 points, down 4%
CO -- shift toward McCain of 2 points, down 4%
NC -- shift toward McCain of 4 points, up 1%