Obama's Rock Star popularity

[YOhio]

I wonder if this will ever begin to work against him. Right now there is little question that a decent portion of his popularity is due to people who are excited by his popularity itself. This happens all the time in the pop music world, but when it does it inevitably turns off a lot of fellow admirers who go off looking for the next best thing.

In this case, there really is no next best thing. For a while, McCain was the coolest Republican around. He would show up on SNL and John Stewart loved him, but now he's Bush III. A grumpy, ugly, old warmonger. So the threat isn't McCain, but I think it's attention span. The only way Obama loses popularity is if his fawning admirers disengage from politics altogether. He'll have to compete against the NFL, CFB and World Series. He'll have to compete against good news if it comes, the inevitable capturing of OBL, falling gas prices, etc. I think all these things pose a bigger threat to him than John McCain. Mano a mano there is no contest.

It will be fascinating to see if he's able to sustain his popularity, not only through November but far beyond that. Though I won't vote for him, he is probably the most unique politician I've seen in my life. It's fun to watch.

[BYU71]

Originally Posted by YOhio

I wonder if this will ever begin to work against him. Right now there is little question that a decent portion of his popularity is due to people who are excited by his popularity itself. This happens all the time in the pop music world, but when it does it inevitably turns off a lot of fellow admirers who go off looking for the next best thing.

In this case, there really is no next best thing. For a while, McCain was the coolest Republican around. He would show up on SNL and John Stewart loved him, but now he's Bush III. A grumpy, ugly, old warmonger. So the threat isn't McCain, but I think it's attention span. The only way Obama loses popularity is if his fawning admirers disengage from politics altogether. He'll have to compete against the NFL, CFB and World Series. He'll have to compete against good news if it comes, the inevitable capturing of OBL, falling gas prices, etc. I think all these things pose a bigger threat to him than John McCain. Mano a mano there is no contest.

It will be fascinating to see if he's able to sustain his popularity, not only through November but far beyond that. Though I won't vote for him, he is probably the most unique politician I've seen in my life. It's fun to watch.

I think you are on to something there. I have actually had several people over the last couple of weeks tell me they once thought Obama was refreshing and might be a good change. They say the more this goes on, they are getting tired of him. They don't like his policies and one guy told me yesterday, "the Europeans loving him has made me decide I was wrong for supporting him."

If the republicans can make his record stick, he might not be as big a shoe in as people think.

[Tex]

Originally Posted by BYU71

I think you are on to something there. I have actually had several people over the last couple of weeks tell me they once thought Obama was refreshing and might be a good change. They say the more this goes on, they are getting tired of him. They don't like his policies and one guy told me yesterday, "the Europeans loving him has made me decide I was wrong for supporting him."

If the republicans can make his record stick, he might not be as big a shoe in as people think.

Triplet doesn't believe you.

[TripletDaddy]

Originally Posted by Tex

Triplet doesn't believe you.

Can I adjust my position on this issue?

I made that post two days ago, well before I learned that BYU71 talked to someone yesterday who is tired of Obama's popularity. That changes everything.

[Tex]

You need to read the Book of Obama

And it came to pass, in the eighth year of the reign of the evil Bush the Younger (The Ignorant), when the whole land from the Arabian desert to the shores of the Great Lakes had been laid barren, that a Child appeared in the wilderness.

The Child was blessed in looks and intellect. Scion of a simple family, offspring of a miraculous union, grandson of a typical white person and an African peasant. And yea, as he grew, the Child walked in the path of righteousness, with only the occasional detour into the odd weed and a little blow.

Heh.

[ute4ever]

Although I was just a lad, I remember candidate Bill Clinton playing the sax on the Arsenio Hall show while wearing his cool dude sunglasses. The other option was old man Herbert Walker.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by YOhio

I wonder if this will ever begin to work against him. Right now there is little question that a decent portion of his popularity is due to people who are excited by his popularity itself.

We actually did see this storyline at the height of the tension between Hillary and Barack...you started to see a lot of commentators question just how healthy this religious fervor is, and you started to see quite a bit of poking fun at Baracks frequent self-referential rhetoric. "We are the ones we've been waiting for!!!" <crowd erupts in cheers> Some even suggested there's something sinister about it.

I'd imagine you'll see this story gain momentum again as the general election picks up. The first time around, this coverage coincided with a (caused a?) slide in his support. I think with enough attention that could happen again. All you have to do is plant doubt in the minds of the disciples. McCain would be wise to drop subtle references to Obama's cult status here and there, but I'm not sure McCain is a polished enough speaker to pull it off. He'll more likely overdo it and just look like a crotchety old man jealous of the young guy getting all the attention.

[Indy Coug]

Originally Posted by Adam

Obama has the potential to be similar in his paradigm shifting influence. We'll see if he pulls it off, but I think the chance is over 50% that he will succeed.

Got pot?

[Tex]

Originally Posted by Adam

Obama has the chance to be a truly transformative President.

The last one was Reagan. Before Reagan, everyone viewed the world one way--afterwords the world just looked different. Like him or hate him, Reagan changed the conversation and the dynamics of politics, both domestically (lower taxes and deficit spending) and internationally (the "Evil Empire" and StarWars missile defense).

Obama has the potential to be similar in his paradigm shifting influence. We'll see if he pulls it off, but I think the chance is over 50% that he will succeed.

Taking off my anti-Obama hat for a minute, it's still remarkable how people can say this after listening to a few rhetoric-heavy speeches. For all the flower talk, the man has an extremely brief resume.

Reagan, "like him or hate him", had a solid resume of accomplishments. You had a decent idea of how he would govern. Obama? Nobody really knows. We have to simply go by his speeches, or a string of "present" votes in the Illinois legislature, or his non-existent membership on the Senate Banking committee.

Obama is highly charismatic, no question. But Reagan? Please. What do you know about the man to make such a comparison.

[YOhio]

Originally Posted by Tex

Taking off my anti-Obama hat for a minute, it's still remarkable how people can say this after listening to a few rhetoric-heavy speeches. For all the flower talk, the man has an extremely brief resume.

Reagan, "like him or hate him", had a solid resume of accomplishments. You had a decent idea of how he would govern. Obama? Nobody really knows. We have to simply go by his speeches, or a string of "present" votes in the Illinois legislature, or his non-existent membership on the Senate Banking committee.

Obama is highly charismatic, no question. But Reagan? Please. What do you know about the man to make such a comparison.

I think Obama has a couple of things going for him that could allow him to get a few quick accomplishments under his belt.

First, if elected, he'll have big time political capital. This may sound paranoid or conspiratorial, but come January or February, we'll start hearing some damn good news coming out of Iraq. The national mood will be lifted and Obama will have some serious cred. His 2009 honeymoon period could last well into the fall.

Second, he'll be dealing with a Democratic congress that has a sizable majority. Unless Nancy P and Harry Reid pull a power play, Congressional Dems will be at the Presidents' beck and call.

Third, I think Obama has surrounded himself with a pretty good staff. His campaign is very well run and it's likely that his administration will be equally efficient.

It's very possible that at this time next year we will be discussing how we're enjoying our new universal health care.