TdF odds

[bluegoose]

Here is a little snippet I found regarding current odds in Britain for the upcoming Tour.

"British bookmakers have installed Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) as the favorite to win the Tour de France. The attacking Kazakh is given a 1 to 3.25 chance of standing atop the final podium in Paris on July 29. Vino is followed by Alejandro Valverde (Caisse d'Espargne) at 1 to 5; Andreas Kloden (Astana) at 1 to 6; Levi Leipheimer (Discovery Channel) and Carlos Sastre (CSC) at 1 to 12; Denis Menchov (Rabobank) at 1 to 16; and Cadel Evans (Predictor Lotto) and Yaroslav Popovych (Discovery Channel) at 1 to 20. The highest rated Italian is Damiano Cunego (Lampre), who is given odds of 1 to 25 but says he'll likely wait until 2008 to race the Tour again."

I'm not sure that this is the order that I would have put them in, but I haven't followed the Euro tour that closely this spring.

Here's my early guess for the top 8 (because that's how many they listed, not including Cunego):

1. Carlos Sastre
2. Andreas Kloden
3. Alexandre Vinokourov
4. Levi Leipheimer
5. Denis Menchov
6. Alejandro Valverde
7. Cadel Evans
8. Yaroslav Popovych (a distant 8th)

Sastre really impressed me last year with his consistency in the mountains and during the time trials. His also happens to ride for the top team in the world.

Kloden is still a serious contender riding the strength of his team and past performances. Pinky Power! Plus I've always liked his white rimmed sunglasses. It makes him very recognizable in the peloton.

I really like Vino, but he hasn't shown me that he can put together a complete 3 week tour without some sort of implosion. Now if he would just leave the powder blue Kazakh champ jersey at home....

Leipheimer - see Vino, sans the Kazakh comment.

Menchov could certainly finish on the podium, but I certainly don't see him winning it all. He is great riding other guy's wheels in the mountains. But as we've learned from Lance and Floyd, in addition to juicing, you've got to be able to win at least one mountain stage to win it all. He's just not an attacker.

Valverde has shown great promise, but has yet to put together a serious contention for a grand tour title. Wheelside down, Alejandro.

Cadel is fun to watch but is realistically more of a top 10 guy than a podium guy. Riding for Lotto doesn't help much either. They seem more interested in getting McEwen to the line than winning a tour.

Popovych really doesn't deserve mention for the podium yet, imho.

[creekster]

Good analysis. I think you have Kloden rated too highly. He is a second but not a first, IMO. ALso, Valverde may yet get swept up into Operacion Puerta, in addition to being inconsistent.

I think it will be very interesting to see how the race goes this year given that drug use is so high profile right now.

[bluegoose]

Originally Posted by creekster

Good analysis. I think you have Kloden rated too highly. He is a second but not a first, IMO. ALso, Valverde may yet get swept up into Operacion Puerta, in addition to being inconsistent.

I think it will be very interesting to see how the race goes this year given that drug use is so high profile right now.

What do you mean by saying Kloden is a second, but not a first?

And you're right about Valverde. I wouldn't be suprised if he sits this one out.

[creekster]

Originally Posted by bluegoose

What do you mean by saying Kloden is a second, but not a first?

And you're right about Valverde. I wouldn't be suprised if he sits this one out.

This is sheer psychological speculation on ,m part, but I don't think Kloden is a grand Tour winner between the ears. I think he likes being a good lieutenant where he can do some really great things but never has to lead a team or be the man in front. Just MO.

If drug use was rampant, and if it is now going to be diminished, we may see some real surprises.

[bluegoose]

Originally Posted by creekster

This is sheer psychological speculation on ,m part, but I don't think Kloden is a grand Tour winner between the ears. I think he likes being a good lieutenant where he can do some really great things but never has to lead a team or be the man in front. Just MO.

If drug use was rampant, and if it is now going to be diminished, we may see some real surprises.

Whew! I thought you were implying that you didn't like his sunglasses or something like that. Them are fightin words.

So he's the German George Hincapie?

[RC Vikings]

With all the problems at Telekom I'm guessing Kloden is also guilty by association so I'm not expecting him to do well. Vino will blow up somewhere along the way. Sastre should be the favorite but I expect a pretty wide open race this year.