What are the odds of an independent running for president?

[Cali Coug]

If an independent is going to win, this could be the year. This is the last chance for McCain to ever be president, and it is the only chance Giuliani will ever have. Hillary is likely done after this shot too. Obama and Romney could have a future race if they don't win this one.

So what happens if any of the above lose the nomination? Giulani and McCain in particular would be extremely attractive 3rd party candidates. Neither of them are really all aboard the Republican agenda anyways. McCain is rumored to have even contemplated a slot as VP on the Democratic ticket in 2004. Would Hillary get in as an independent? I think it unlikely with her, simply because it would destroy all of the good will her family has accumulated with the Democratic party over the past 15 years or so.

What happens to the race if Giuliani or McCain get in? I think most likely it means the Dem wins, but not necessarily. Either of those two would do MUCH better in a general election than they would do in their party primaries. They would be very dangerous to any candidate running at that point.

In fact, if it is Hillary v. Romney (though I think it will be Obama v. Romney), I actually think Giuliani or McCain could possibly pull it off (Giuliani being more likely than McCain, IMO).

Thoughts?

[All-American]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

If an independent is going to win, this could be the year. This is the last chance for McCain to ever be president, and it is the only chance Giuliani will ever have. Hillary is likely done after this shot too. Obama and Romney could have a future race if they don't win this one.

So what happens if any of the above lose the nomination? Giulani and McCain in particular would be extremely attractive 3rd party candidates. Neither of them are really all aboard the Republican agenda anyways. McCain is rumored to have even contemplated a slot as VP on the Democratic ticket in 2004. Would Hillary get in as an independent? I think it unlikely with her, simply because it would destroy all of the good will her family has accumulated with the Democratic party over the past 15 years or so.

What happens to the race if Giuliani or McCain get in? I think most likely it means the Dem wins, but not necessarily. Either of those two would do MUCH better in a general election than they would do in their party primaries. They would be very dangerous to any candidate running at that point.

In fact, if it is Hillary v. Romney (though I think it will be Obama v. Romney), I actually think Giuliani or McCain could possibly pull it off (Giuliani being more likely than McCain, IMO).

Thoughts?

An independent running? Certain. Having any impact? Nah.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by Cali Coug

If an independent runs, they are almost guaranteed to have an impact. Even Ralph Nader arguably cost the Democrats the White House in 2000, and nobody took his campaign seriously.

If either Giuliani or McCain gets in the race as an independent (and I don't know what would constrain them), the race would be turned upside down and all bets are off.

Agreed that an independent does have an impact. Ross Perot cost Bush the Elder a 2nd term.

I think Mrs. Clinton would find herself in the White House again for her third term if any of the Dems or Repubs ran as an independent.

[YOhio]

I am pretty certain we will see an Independent candidate, but I will be surprised if it's Rudy. I could see Bloomberg, Hagel, or McCain running as an I. In that order.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by YOhio

I am pretty certain we will see an Independent candidate, but I will be surprised if it's Rudy. I could see Bloomberg, Hagel, or McCain running as an I. In that order.

Rudy won't be running as an independent because he'll be the GOP nom, for better or worse.

An independent will sway the election for the Dems, but would have no chance of winning. The parties are too entrenched with too much money and power. I'd be surprised if an Ind could pull more than 10-15% of the popular vote. Perot had 18% and Nader had <3%.

[Tex]

Ask and ye shall receive.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/natio...3142-3314r.htm

[MikeWaters]

I doubt Rudy will get the nomination.

I won't vote for him. I'll vote for Obama before I vote for Rudy.

[il Padrino Ute]

Originally Posted by Tex

Ask and ye shall receive.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/natio...3142-3314r.htm

If he's willing to spend $1B, the guy wants to be President a little too badly for my liking. And he'll only guarantee that Mrs. Clinton will get elected. Somebody needs to talk some sense into the guy and help him understand that it's a lot like team racing. If you can't do it yourself, ensure that one of your teammates win.

[BarbaraGordon]

Originally Posted by MikeWaters

I doubt Rudy will get the nomination.

I won't vote for him. I'll vote for Obama before I vote for Rudy.

He's very smart. This week he's taken a huge step toward separating himself from the Bush-esque "compassionate conservatives." That leaves Romney appearing to represent the religious right. I don't think the GOPs want to go that route. The party desperately needs to put some distance between themselves and Bush, and Giuliani is giving them the opportunity to do so.

[Cali Coug]

Originally Posted by BarbaraGordon

Rudy won't be running as an independent because he'll be the GOP nom, for better or worse.

An independent will sway the election for the Dems, but would have no chance of winning. The parties are too entrenched with too much money and power. I'd be surprised if an Ind could pull more than 10-15% of the popular vote. Perot had 8% and Nader had <3%.

But recall that Perot was winning until he dropped out of the race inexplicably. By the time he re-entered, it was too late.