BYU's Vegas Bowl opponent will be...

[Judge Smails]

Boise St, if Arizona St or USC earn BCS bid.

Here's why:

Arizona, Stanford, Washington, and Wazzu have to run the table to become bowl eligible - not likely to happen.

UCLA has to beat ASU, USC or Oregon to get to 6-6. I don't think it happens.

That leaves 5 bowl eligible teams:

Oregon - @ Arizona, @ UCLA, OSU - assumption - wins out - 8-1 BCS Bowl
Arizona St - @UCLA, Arizona, USC - assumption - lose to USC - 7-2 Holiday
USC - @ASU, UCLA, @Cal - assumption - lose to Cal 6-3 Sun Bowl
Cal - USC, @Wash, @Stan - assumption - win out 6-3 Emerald Bowl
Oregon St - Wash, @Wazzu, @Oregon - assumption - lose to Or - 5-4 Vegas

That would pit us against Oregon St. Not great, but unlike Oregon last year at least the Beaver will want to be there.

But, if ASU or USC win out, I think they give the PAC 10 a 2nd BCS team moving OSU up to the Emerald Bowl, and leaving Vegas (as well as the Armed Forces Bowl) without a PAC 10 team.

Which is where it could get ugly. (Florida Atlantic). But this is where Boise St come in. They will either be 11-1 or 10-2 and most likely slated for a bowl game on their home field. Now, as exciting as playing a cold weather bowl game on your home field sounds, Boise St has shown a tendency when they have a really good record (note - I didn't say really good team) to try to move to a "bigger" bowl game - Liberty Bowl and Fort Worth Bowl in the last 5 years.

I think they get out of their contract and sign on with the Vegas Bowl. While I like playing a better name like Oregon St, BYU vs Boise St would make a great bowl game with 2 teams with something to prove.

I think we probably get Oregon St, but I think BSU is the 2nd most likely opponent at this point.