Quote:
Originally Posted by pelagius
I'm afraid this is getting silly:
BYU71: ex post outperformance
JAY: ex ante outperformance
Jay, unfortunately didn't make that distinction clear at the beginning but the by the middle of the thread he is clearly is making an argument about ex ante performance and not ex post. A charitable reading of Jay's argument requires that you respond in terms of the ex ante probability of overpeformance.
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My original post said that someone making that claim is dishonest or incompetent. A clarification would be that even if someone can show an ex post performance beating the market, they are dishonest or incompetent if they try to con you into thinking they can continue to do so.