Quote:
Originally Posted by jay santos
My original post said that someone making that claim is dishonest or incompetent. A clarification would be that even if someone can show an ex post performance beating the market, they are dishonest or incompetent if they try to con you into thinking they can continue to do so.
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Its too strong of a statement; the advisor may just be overconfident. There is lots of empirical evidence consistent with fund managers and people in general being overconfident (i.e., they overstate the probability they are correct).
I wouldn'tnecessarily think badly of Waters friend. I am not privy to the whole conversation. Its possible he had a very nuanced discussion of risk and expected returns and Water's summary leaves something to be desired. I don't know ... more information would be required before I made the inference the Waters should avoid investing with him.