Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeWaters
Meaning that we would now be at our own 35.
I give the odds of Unga breaking a 25 yarder in that situation as about 1 in 250. The odds of him fumbling are low, but higher than the odds of him running that far, based on the production to that point in the game.
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Agree. And a coach has to be experienced enough and smart enough to either intuitively know these odds or to study them in the offseason enough to understand them.
Unga's got about a 1/100 chance of fumbling. But his long run for the year is 40 yards, and nothing was working that day, and UCLA has speed to run him down even if he breaks through the line. So if you say he has 1/250 chance to bust it out to the 50 or so. Then with a bad kicker, we have another 20% chance to get another 20 yard pass in and a 50% chance to kick a field goal. That means you have about a 1/1000 chance to make three points.
vs 1/100 chance to give up 7 points.
In a defensive battle where you're up 11 points.
Very, very stupid.
I'm getting more upset thinking about it. I was mad enough when Mahuika fielded the punt. What? Field a high punt on the road with different lights you're than you're used to for the opportunity to take a knee at the 10??