Quote:
Originally Posted by jay santos
I've known there were places you could bet on ridiculous stuff like whether or not Brad and Angelina will get a divorce, but it's pretty cool getting into the details of this.
There's not a ton of money changing hands over all the political primaries, but just like I'm a big believer in efficient markets, I have to believe intrade is probably the best predictor you can find on the election.
Anyone actually trade on intrade? With the relatively small amounts of money traded, I would think though it's still a good predictor, there are some areas to exploit, if you felt like you had good insight on something.
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There is a growing literature on the intrade contracts in economics. You are right to worry about the depth of the market. For a lot of contracts the market is pretty thinly traded. However, it is going to be by far your best predictor.
For example, by early Tuesday the intrade market swung toward Romney in a big way. I think the best explanation is that some traders clearly had exit poll information early before it was made public:
Here is the link to the thread were I pointed out the change in prices in favor of Romney on Tuesday afternoon:
http://cougarguard.com/forum/showthread.php?t=15926