I found these marathon time predictors over on Runners World. What do you think?
Quote:
Yasso 800s
A number of our panelists suggested doing this workout to help you determine a realistic marathon pace. Three or four weeks before the marathon, do a track workout of 10 x 800 meters with a 400-meter jog. You should be spent after the last repeat. The average of your 800 times is a good barometer of how fast you can run in the marathon--but in hours and minutes instead of minutes and seconds.
Magic miles
Jeff Galloway has his runners do a "magic mile"--an all-out mile on the track after a warmup--once every three or four weeks. Multiply that time by 1.3, he says, and you get a good marathon-pace goal.
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I think Galloways method may be a bit conservative, but the 800 test seems to be a pretty good predictor for the times that I am hoping for this fall.