Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeWaters
Remember the whole thing about how the oil prices had "very little" to do with speculation, and were the result of increased demand in China and India, and nothing to do with speculation?
Suddenly the speculation bubble pops, every report is about the commodity speculation turning the corner and falling, and no one says "oh yeah, forget about all those lies we told you, it really was speculation the whole time and not much to do with market forces."
Remember that the next time something doubles in price in one year and you are told that it has to do with supply and demand, and nothing to do with speculation.
|
Other commodities are way up. Part of it is the weakening of the dollar, i.e. priced in Euro's it's not up as much. Part of it is supply/demand. Part of it is speculation. There's rarely an easily understandable reason for these things. Simple supply/demand issues can easily pop a price up more than double in a short time. Go sit outside a hot sports event and watch the scalpers and you might see an example.
On oil: this is my latest, best information. Pure supply/demand forces put it at $80-$100 and speculation accounts for the rest. This will endure for a while, but it's not impossible to see <$60 prices within five years.