Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian
Agreed. I'm just saying that if you have to punt, you likely wont get the ball back for quite a while. A TD every drive or it might be hard.
|
You're assuming AFA scores every possession. I doubt they do. I find it unlikely BYU scores under 30 on AFA. I'd be highly surprised if AFA scores over 24.
Scores against D1 opponents:
Wyo: 23-3
Hou: 31-28
Utah: 23-30
Navy: 27-33
SDSU: 35-10
UNLV: 29-28
UNM: 23-10
Army: 16-7
CSU: 38-17
CSU ranks 106th in rushing D at 5.2 YPC.
UNLV ranks 103rd at 5.2
SDSU ranks 110th at 5.3
Houston ranks 77th at 4.3
Navy is the only team AFA managed to put up 24+ on that has a decent rush defense (at 3.5YPC). BYU's rush D, despite being so maligned, is only allowing 3.6YPC this year (Interestingly, there's quite a disparity between YPC BYU gives up & the rushes/game they typically see. I think teams are definitely trying to play keepaway with the BYU O.).
AFA is only averaging 4.43 YPC on O this year. That's 49th nationally.
I don't expect AFA to score that much in this game. I expect them to be in the 17-27 point range.