Just a note, Bayes Rule should be used in some legal applications (So yes there should be a class on Bayesian statistics in law school). For example, in criminal law regarding DNA testing. A DNA test actually tells you the following:
Pr(DNA match| innocent)
In words, a DNA test tells you the probability of a DNA match given the person is innocent (1 million to one or whater). However, that's not what you want or need to know to asses guilt properly. You need the following:
Pr(innocent|DNA match)
In words, you want to know the probability of innocence given the evidence (the fact that the DNA matches). The only way to get to that probability is Bayes Rule (any other way is wrong).
Last edited by pelagius; 11-05-2008 at 03:44 AM.
|