Quote:
Originally Posted by Archaea
If you stating that Bayes rule shows if somebody played 100s of times, how many times somebody might prevail, and that's why Vegas oddsmakers stick to a formula which doesn't reflect who actually won on any given date, I understand your point.
Some of those predictions look odd though.
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Bayes rule shows you how you should update what you believe based on new information under uncertainty. It shows you how to do it optimally. The cognitive physcology literature finds strongly in experimental settings that people overreact and change their beliefs too much in the face of information that is new and dramatic (the Texas vs Texas Tech game fits the bill nicely). People are fighting against a fairly strong congitive bias when they see a poll that still ranks Texas ahead of Texas Tech.