Quote:
Originally Posted by SeattleUte
Did somebody else link this interesting article?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us...prod=permalink
It seems some peoople say McCain still has a shot. The reasons are electoral college and blue state lop-sidedness overstating Obama's lead in the contest that counts, Obama's rough treatment of Joe the Plumber (seriously), Biden's gaffe predicting foreign policy nghtmare to occur early in Obama's presidency, Obama oversaturation and sense of entitlement (NPR had an extended piece on this risk), and yes, racism in rust belt and Appalacian states, including voters lying to pollsters about how they will vote.
I was surprised to read McCain's guy say that McCain is in a comparable place as Gore was a week before the election in 2000. Is that right? |
Sure, he technically still has a shot. That is true in every single election until the votes are cast. In order to win, McCain almost has to take Pennsylvania. If he loses Pennsylvania, he needs to win all of the following states:
Florida
Virginia
North Carolina
New Mexico/Colorado (he would need one, and if he only gets New Mexico, it is a tie)
Indiana
Ohio
Missouri
North Dakota
Montana
Nevada
Georgia
Mississippi
West Virginia
If he wins Pennsylvania, he can win if he also gets Ohio and still lose the following states from the list above:
New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Missouri
That is a bit of a cushion, but it isn't much. If he wins Missouri, he can lose Virginia, and vice-versa. Still, there aren't many scenarios that look good for him right now.
He is currently losing in the following states (according to the most recent polls):
Florida (Miami Herald Poll: -7; Qunnipaic poll: -5)
Indiana (Survey USA: -4; Big 10: -9.5)
Montana (-4.2)
North Carolina (-2)
Ohio (Big 10: -11.5; Quinnipaic: -14)
Penn (Big 10: -10.4; Morning Call: -10; National Journal: -10; Quinnipaic: -13; Survey USA: -12)
Florida (-2.2)
Missouri (-1.6)
Virginia (-7)
New Mexico (-7)
Colorado (-5)
Nevada (-3)
North Dakota (-3)
New Hampshire (-5)
Good luck with that.