Quote:
Originally Posted by myboynoah
I don't follow the Dems that closely, but everyone makes it seem like S. Carolina will be Obama's high water mark, his Gettysburg so to speak. They speak of the "Clinton Machine" in the Super Tuesday states that will overwhelm the junior senator from Illinois. Game, set, match. Is this true?
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First, you have to remember the Superdelegates, which are not appointed by any states. They are part of the Democratic establishment, and Clinton has 175 pledged to her. This gives her a significant head-start, which may not be reflected in many of the charts you see, which show Obama with a 38-36 lead.
Second, there has been a significant change in the discourse among the Democrats over the last two weeks. Up until this point, they have played nice. All in the family. Us against the GOP. But no more. Things have gotten real ugly real fast. This hurts Obama more than Hillary. While no one likes Hillary (exit polls show that even the people that vote for her don't like her), personality/trust/charisma is a huge component of Obama's campaign. If the discourse gets ugly and personal - and it has - it will hurt Obama more than Hillary. He has pledged to transcend traditional politics. If he fails, whether he "started it" or not, it's pretty much the end of the line for the hope express.
Three, there are reports that the Clintons are doing far more than anyone expected to secure the vote. There are allegations of underhanded and intimidating tactics already being used in some of the early states. It's also clear that she's trying to make race a factor. I think we had all heard that it's just not possible to take down the Clinton machine. I'm just not sure we realized what that means. It is entirely possible that this is a do-what-it-takes-to-win effort, and that those behind the effort truly have the power to get it done.