Dating back to the 1988 election, Nate Silver's state-by-state polls have been 96% accurate. Only 3 of 79 ultimately had the wrong winner:
2004 Ohio: Kerry +0.2 (Bush prevailed 2.1) 2004 Wisconsin: Bush +1.0 (Kerry prevailed 0.4) 1996 Colorado: Clinton +3.8 (Dole prevailed 1.4) |
he wasn't doing this in 1988.
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His final electoral projection as of this morning is 313 Obama 225 Romney. |
looking very grim for Romney. Needs a straight flush.
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This was a wake up call for the GOP. I wonder if anybody at HQ was listening. I sort of doubt it.
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The Mormon moment is gone forever.
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FWIW, it's true that the Democrats have received the highest popular vote in 5 of the past 6 presidential elections; however, of the 4 elections where they took control of the White House, this was their narrowest win.
1992: Clinton +6.5% of the popular vote 1996: Clinton +8.5% 2000: Gore +0.5% 2004: Kerry -2.4% 2008: Obama +7.2% 2012: Obama +2.7% It's not as though they have an iron grip on 2016 or 2020. Only one of the past four elections has been a landslide. |
More on Nate Silver's sudden popularity:
http://storify.com/assignmentdesk1/drunknatesilver |
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Mormons will fade into obscurity. The Mormon moment was microscopic, measured in microns. The GOP is comatose. The GOP goes out of its way to offend women, such the morons in Indiana and Missouri, or by Ryan's defunding of Planned Parenthood, or to see how much we can alienate Hispanics. The GOP leadership should drawn, quartered, then shot and hanged. I am pissed by the stupidity of party leadership. IF I ever see a Tea Partier, I want it in a history class. |
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