So, what's the church going to do
 

about the amendment to the California Constitution that will be on the ballot in 2010, which reverses Prop. 8?

Are we going to have another 2-month blitz by the members, $70 million in donated funds, and repeated meetings to mobilize the opposition to the amendment? If that fails, what about in 2012?

For that matter, what happens if the amendment in 2010 passes? Is the church going to sponsor another amendment in 2012 that we will all have to get behind, as well?

Keep in mind, it was the black vote that really put Prop 8 over the edge. In 2010, there isn't going to be a presidential election with a black candidate on the ballot.

If you think gay marriage is defeated for good, you're delusional.

Are the members going to be as enthusiastic about it in 2010? in 2012?

There are 30 other states who have anti-gay marriage laws or amendments on the books, most of which passed in 2002 or 2004, if memory serves. So far as I know, only one has ever been defeated--in Arizona in 2006.

Curious, how many of those have been reversed?

How many of those states only require a simple majority to amend the Constitution? Honestly I don't know.

Which side spent more? The gays certainly outspent the pro 8's. Amazing how soundly it was defeated in Florida without the church getting involved. It would have gone down as soundly in California if the gays hadn't spent upwards of $43M trying to justify their behavior.

I think SoCalCoug brings up a good point. This issue is not going away . . . at what point does the fatigue factor set in? More importantly, no matter what states have on the books now, the end of this story has been written and is known. Whether it's the Supreme Court in 10 or 20 years, or the democratic process in that time, gay marriage is coming to this country. I suspect it will be the gay marriage equivalent to Loving v. Virginia, the Supreme Court opinion that struck down anti-miscegination laws. The fact that the end game is know isn't an argument for the Church to lay down its arms, but the Church has to know that it will have to pick them up again . . . repeatedly.

I'm not talking about a reversal by the courts. Another constitutional amendment WILL be on the ballot in California in 2010. And again in 2012, if it doesn't pass in 2010.

62% of Californians supported Prop. 22 in 2000. 52% of Californians supported Prop. 8 this year. Older voters supported Prop. 8. Younger voters did not.

It's too easy to amend the California state constitution. But that's how it is. It will be back on the ballot in the next election, that's a certainty. I doubt the trend in favor of gay marriage reverses itself.

It took a huge effort by the church to get Prop. 8 passed. Are they going to expend the same effort to oppose the next proposition in 2010? In 2012?

At some point, someone's going to have to concede defeat, and I doubt it's going to be the pro-gay marriage side.

Over the next decade, about 40 states will have to vote on similar propositions, one-by-one. I guess we can expect a state-by-state rallying cry?

I'm not talking about the courts. Have any of the statutes/amendments formerly passed in any state thus far been reversed by vote of the people?

Hasn't happened <> won't happen

It's going to be on the ballot again in 2010 - I don't think anyone reasonably disputes that - there was a ballot measure we voted on here that was on the ballot for the third consecutive election. The anti-prop 8 people have already said it will be on the ballot again in 2010.

If you're getting caught up in what's happened to date, you're missing the point, and you're betraying a desire to be contradictory for the sake of being contradictory.

The trend in California is in favor of gay marriage. In 2000, Prop. 22 received 62% of the vote. The church supported Prop. 22, but not nearly with the organized effort that they put forth this year. This year, even with the huge effort by the church, the support for the measure was down to 52%.

Older voters were strongly in favor of Prop. 8. Younger voters were strongly against it. As time passes, experts I have heard in the past couple of days expect that the passage of time (as older voters die and more younger voters become old enough to vote) will increase the percentage of voters in favor of gay marriage.

In addition, the existence of a black presidential candidate mobilized black voters, who were by far the greatest supporters, by percentage (70%), of Prop. 8. 70% of black voters voted in favor of Prop. 8; about 58-60% of Hispanic voters voted in favor of it; about 48% of white voters voted in favor of it (52% voted against). So in 2010, chances are, there won't be nearly as many black voters as there were this year.

All of these factors strongly suggest that support for gay marriage will increase even more by 2010, and even if the church pushes as hard then against the ballot measure as it did this year in favor of Prop. 8, I think the chances of "preserving traditional marriage" in California are going to dwindle.

And so the question I have is whether the church is going to request the same efforts in opposing the 2010 ballot measure as it requested this year in supporting Prop. 8. And if they are, how amenable are the California church members going to be? If you don't live in California, you may not appreciate how much Prop. 8 has dominated the scene among LDS member over the last 2 months. Can that effort be duplicated in 2 years? Will it?

It's going to be a long time before Mississippi has this on the ballot. You can be sure of that.