Why I think the Republicans (Giulani) will pull off a stunning upset.
 

Remember, you heard this prediction from SeattleUte first. Everyone thinks it's a democratic party election because GWB is such a terrible president and the Iraq war is such a disaster. But right now the press is creating the reality. Here's what I predict is going to happen (but I wouldn't bet over a dollar on this).

When people get ready to pull the trigger on their vote, the red states will go with preservation of their culture, and the country will vote for the candidate who they think will keep them safest, who is the most ready to make a scorched earth out of the Middle East if needs be. I'm not making a judgment about whether the assessment that Republicans will keep the country safer is true. I kind of doubt it, actually. But remember, it's all about perception. The democrats' constant anti-war drum beat will take its toll. I hate the Iraq war and think it's foolish, but opposing the war is risky. This is not like the Vienam era. There is no draft. This is a war fought mostly by the underclass, who are much less prone to vote.

Giuliani now leads in places like South Carolina only becuase they think he'd be a tough war mongering president and put the clamps on domestic terrorism for good. Also, the economy won't be in the tank then. I say Giuliani is the next president, upsetting Hillary Clinton. It won't be as big a shocker as Truman-Dewey, but thinking back to today people will realize it was an upset win for Rudy G.

I believe the Republican party will vote for Rudy because they think he is the only candidate that can beat Rodham. If he can hold the right together he will pull in a hell of a lot more of the middle then Rodham will. The only thing that could work against him is if the far right wing brings in a third party candidate. By doing this they would just be giving the presidency to Rodham.

This depends on how serious the "values voters" are about voting for a 3rd party candidate if Rudy wins the nomination and how powerful they are as a voting bloc.

Dobson and his crew are threatening this very thing:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/04/op...=1&oref=slogin

Rudy has his foibles, but I honestly believe that of all the candidates in the field for both parties he's the only one with potential for true greatness a la Reagan, Truman, FDR, and right now we need a great president. He has had an astonishing life and career.

He would get my insignificant vote, and if the Right screws us, then to hell with them.

I think the fundies are a lot more realistic than the Ralph Nader folks.

I never, ever thought these words would come from you.

I think you are right because seems to me that the Dems will make a huge mistake by not nominating someone more middle-of-the-road. Where I sit people are tired of politicking by both sides and important business of the country being left undone in the process -- like the current budget. The Dems putting a very left candidate out there, such as Hilary, is going to cost them big in an election that might otherwise be theirs on a silver platter. The war is an issue, but the timing of the troop withdrawals is such that by next November that should be well on the way, and the war will be less of an issue unless something really bad with the war or the withdrawal plan in the meantime.

Damning with faint praise. Remember, the Nader people decided they'd rather vote for Nader than have Gore beat Bush. How nutty is that? It's a demonstrable, mathematical fact that Nader's candidacy brought about Bush's victory over Gore. Could there be a more pro-environment mainstream candidate than Gore?

Demopublicans or Republicrats. They're pretty much all the same.